All the preliminaries are over, and the 2009-10 UK Basketball season is ready to begin. As Coach Calipari has tagged this season, “It's Our Time” and on Friday night we begin to find out what “Our Time” is going to be about, well sort of. First, John Wall, the nation's top recruit in the 2009 Freshman class will not be permitted to play due to NCAA rulings, and at least 2 other incoming Freshmen, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton suffered injuries during the exhibition games, and while most expect them to be available, it is not clear from Coach's statements that either will be 100%. Add to the injury list and the ineligibility issues the fact that Liggins has not seen any pre-season action due to unstated issues, and Coach Calipari's presumably deep roster suddenly could appear unexpectedly thin.

The Cats had mixed results from their two exhibition games. In the first game, also without John Wall, the team appeared lethargic on offense, and their 23 turnovers contributed greatly to an offensive efficiency of about 0.83 points per possession, but the Cat defense was outstanding, as the Cats posted the best defensive efficiency ever in one of these exhibitions against a NAIA or any opponent. In the second exhibition, with John Wall, but without Eric Bledsoe, the offensive concerns seemed to disappear as the Cats scored 117 points with an offensive efficiency of 1.19 ppp, aided in large measure by only 12 turnovers in a game with 97 total possessions. For the second game in a row, the UK defense was outstanding against the out manned opponent.

So, from a UK perspective, was the improved offensive performance indicative of a team improvement from Exhibition 1 to Exhibition 2, or indicative of the difference that the entire team's performance without and with Mr. John Wall. With the UK team on Friday against Morehead more closely resemble the John Wall led effort without Wall, or the effort in Exhibition #1 without Mr. Wall, simply due to his absence from the game against Morehead?

While these early season match ups are more about what UK will do, indeed can do, than about what the opponents present, Morehead also enters this game with a two game exhibition track record. In their exhibitions, Morehead demonstrated capable offensive efficiencies, very strong rebounding prowess, and only average defensive efficiencies. The Morehead performances in this two games were very consistent, unlike the Cats' two trial runs.

Last season, Morehead ended its season with a 1-1 record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Cats closed the book on 2009 with a loss to Notre Dame in the NIT. Last year, Morehead averaged 82 possessions per game while limiting opponents to only 78 possessions, indicating consistent, strong offensive board work, just as their two 2009 exhibitions have demonstrated. Morehead's offensive efficiency was an NCAA D1 average 0.86 ppp as was their defensive efficiency, 0.86 ppp. In comparison, UK's final numbers for 2009 were a pace of 81.5 possessions while allowing opponents 83 possessions per game, reflecting overall poor offensive glass work, with an offensive efficiency of 0.91 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.80 ppp. UK played the more difficult schedule [0.5488 RPI SOS v 0.4859 RPI SOS].

In these early season match ups, it is impossible to make direct comparisons of performance data for the current teams against D1 competition. The only direct comparisons that are possible are (1) the 2009 Exhibitions, and (2) the 2008-09 season ending statistics. By either comparison, it is my opinion that UK should defeat Morehead at Rupp Arena in the season opener. However, those two comparisons yield significantly different projections. In the former, the strong 2 game consistency by Morehead as compared to UK's inconsistent performance in the 2 games suggests a closer game than the latter comparison of last year's overall performance data. The Exhibition games only suggest a UK win in single digits [7 to 8 points] while the 2008-09 data suggests a UK win by about 20 points.

Which will it be on Friday night? Of course, that is why they play the games.

Game Summary

John Wall did not play tonight, and Coach Calipari started Bledsoe, Dodson, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson. The Cats sputtered in this game, particularly in the first half. The Cats won the game 75-59.

UK scored its 75 points in a total of 90 possessions for the game, and Morehead scored its 59 points on a total of 83 possessions.

Kentucky dominated the boards, with a rebounding edge 43-24, and won the battle of the offensive glass 15-12. The Cats used their second chance possessions with much greater efficiency, winning the second chance points battle 22-9. Morehead had an offensive efficiency of 0.704 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.707 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.467 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a very strong 55.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Morehead was able to convert 30.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

19-28 [67.9%]. Morehead made 5-12 [41.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-52 overall [50.0%] and 4-19 from long range [21.1%]. For Morehead, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a good 21-41 [51.2%] and from long range, Morehead hit 4-24 [16.7%].

Tonight the Cats participated in an all too familiar turnover fest again, committing 24 turnovers, one for every 3.8 possessions. The Cats forced only 12 Morehead turnovers, one for every 6.9 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Monday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on Miami of Ohio in the second regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks