07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

06
The Cats Prepare for Second Season Quiz

Against Morehead, the Cats performance on their first Classroom Quiz of the 2009-10 season was a mixed report card. “B” for the defensive effort, and a failing grade for the offense. I would award a “B” for rebounding, and a failing grade for turnovers and protection of possessions. An overall grade of “C-“ to “D+.” The Cats get to take another quiz on Monday against a weak Miami of Ohio team that lost its season opener on the road, and put on two weak performances against the typical exhibition fodder opponents.

The Cats will have their entire team on the floor for the first time Monday too. Wall missed 2 of the first three games, and Bledsoe missed the only game in which Wall did appear. Monday, the Cats will have them both on the floor for the first time. This fact alone provides greater hope for a performance on Monday that should rate at least a “B” overall grade, if not an “A.”

When Coach Calipari arrived in Lexington last April, he proudly proclaimed that he would bring his Dribble Drive Motion Offense [DDMO] with him, and install it at UK. He also explained to all that he would have to stock the roster only with players who could perform within this system because those players who can't perform in the DDMO would have “no place to hide.” In this system, he said, required each player to have the ability to drive to the basket on the dribble, through the defense with a primary goal of putting it in the basket, and failing that, to put the ball up on the glass where teammates could wrestle the ball into the basket on the rebound. He also explained that when defenders block the player's path to the hoop, the next option is to pass the ball to a teammate who is already heading toward the basket. The final option in the DDMO would be to kick it back out to the perimeter where another teammate would begin that process again with his own drive on the dribble or an open 3-point shot.

Coach Calipari also has explained that this offense requires players who are very talented, and who are able and willing to drive through traffic. I know some fans, including this fan, expressed some concern that without a legitimate perimeter game, opponents would simply play a compact zone defense, designed to prevent any dribble drive to the basket. These critics argued that opponents would remain in these zone defenses until the Cats demonstrate that the perimeter game is sufficient punishment to force the opponent into a man defense, and to defend the perimeter. In the first show and tell time for the season, Morehead played a tight 2-3 zone for the entire game.

How did that work out for the Cats?

4-19 shooting from the perimeter is clearly not sufficient to pull Morehead out of the zone. Actually, 4-19 shooting from the perimeter is not sufficient to pull any opponents using that strategy from those zone defenses. That is exactly the point about the DDMO. Fans who have been concerned about the perimeter game have made this point repeatedly over the last 6 months in anticipation of real game action. Without a legitimate perimeter scoring ability, no opponent is going to allow players to simply drive through a zone defense to the basket.

The retort to this concern had been that these players are so good that they will be able to penetrate as required against any zone. However, the critics point out that unless players are able to knock down the open 3 pointer with some consistency, the UK's offense will struggle just as it did against Morehead on Friday night, only scoring 0.83 points per possession, which is substantially below the NCAA D1 average efficiency [0.86 ppp]. Now the retort has changed to “John Wall will be this difference maker.”

Well, perhaps John Wall will be the answer to the ability to penetrate at will against these compact zones. However, John Wall's presence is not likely to enhance the perimeter shooting percentages for this team. Taking 3-point shots following a series of passes around the perimeter is not going to be the answer. The only answer will come from making the 3 point shot following a penetration into the teeth of the zone. If John Wall is the player who can get inside the teeth of these zones, then he will not be the player who will knock down any 3-pointers. The players we have already seen play must be the ones who make the conversion from the perimeter done. So far, these players have not provided those conversions, e.g. 15-49 [30.6%] against two NAIA Exhibition opponents and Morehead.

This team must solve this part of the puzzle, sooner rather than later. This team must find some players who can, and will present a legitimate outside threat that an opponent must respect rather than site back in the zone and dare the Cats to try to shoot the long ones, in fact hoping that the Cats do simply “jack it up.”

The second area that this team must address is turnovers. Just like the last two editions of Cats, turnover rates are alarmingly high, with 59 turnovers in these first 3 games, which is a turnover on over 21% of all possessions. I concede that in two of the three games, the turnovers have been out of control when Wall has been sitting, and the one game in which Wall played, the turnovers were very manageable. I also concede that Wall's mere presence on the floor can positively impact the turnover situation, unlike his presence not affecting 3-point shooting percentages. However, until I see several consecutive games with manageable turnover rates, with or without Wall, the only data available will continue to sound an alarm about turnover rates.

The poor protection of possessions, coupled with the poor 3-point shooting has produced an offensive efficiency that is very low, 0.83 ppp against Morehead, when the NCAA D1 average is 0.86 ppp. People have observed, correctly, that if they turnovers are reduced from 24 to 12, that the Cats would have scored more against Morehead, and the margin against Morehead would have been larger. However, that factor alone will not elevate the offensive efficiency from the actual 0.83 ppp to the 0.95 ppp range that will be required for any team intent upon a serious run at a National Championship.

This team must shoot 37% or higher from long range and reduce turnover rates to below 16% to achieve the offensive efficiency it will need. So, the offensive efficiency was pitiful due to poor 3-point shooting and a high turnover rate.

However, the story is not entirely gloom and doom, and there is plenty of "good news" for this team's early performances.

1. Field goal shooting, despite its poor 3 point shooting, is very strong overall because inside the arc, this team has made over 62% of its shots. Because of this factor, I am much more concerned at this point about the turnovers than the perimeter shooting, and I am hopeful that Wall's presence in the game will provide the resolution of the turnover woes, as so many DD'ers are suggesting.

2. Offensive Rebounding has been very strong, with the Cats grabbing a very powerful 49.8% of its own misses. The defensive board work has not been as effective because the Cats have permitted its opponents to collectively get 33.5% of their misses for second chance opportunities. The NCAA D1 average is about 33%, and at the defensive end, great rebounding teams will limit opponents to less than 30% second chance opportunities.

3. Overall defensive efficiency has been strong early, and against Morehead, the Cats limited their better than average [by NCAA D1 standards] offense to only 0.711 points per possession.

4. The pace of play has been faster than we have seen around here in many year during these early games, despite a slower than hoped for pace in Exhibition #1. The Cats have averaged 92 possessions per game [90 against Morehead], and opponents have averaged 90 posssessions per game [83 against Morehead], with the difference due to offensive rebounding margins.

Overall, the 16 point win over Morehead was sufficient for me to keep any real caution flags from rising up my front yard flag pole, especially without the contributions of Wall, and I remain very optimistic about the 2009-10 season. My optimism is reinforced by the fact that Coach Calipari is saying all the right things in the face of the turnover, shooting, and general level of effort issues, and I believe that he is determined to get this collection of players to play the game instead of reading their individual and collective press clippings.

After nearly 3 pages of commentary about the Cats, I really have only mentioned the Cats' next opponent in passing. The issues on the table at this time do not really concern the name of the next opponent, and will not for another week or so. However, Miami does deserve some ink before Monday's game.

Last year, Miami of Ohio finished 17-13 with a Pomeroy rating of #107. By comparison, Morehead finished with a Pomeroy rating of #150. However, Miami's post season ended with a 10 point loss in the first round of the MAC tournament to Akron while Morehead won the OVC tournament and was 1-1 in the NCAA.

Early this season, Miami won both of its exhibition games, but was less than impressive in either of these tune up games. In addition, Miami lost its season opener at Towson State 11 points, 82-71. Based on this marginal start for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 17 point win for the Cats, 75-58 in a game that will be played at a pace of Miami's preference, 79 possessions for each team. The Cats' offense should be much more efficient in this game, about 0.95 ppp, and for the second game in a row, the Cats' defensive efficiency should be well under 0.75, e.g about 0.73 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.

Game Summary

For the first time this season, John Wall and Eric Bledsoe will both play in a game. The other three starters are Cousins, Patterson, and Miller. Dodson has yielded to the Freshman Guard tandem.

Both teams open the game with very good shooting, and little defense, at least defense that has any effectiveness in the early going. The Cats his 3 of their first 6 shots, but Miami makes 3 of their first 5 shots and got to the free throw line twice, making 3 of 4 shots. At the end of the opening segment, Miami leads 11-8 and Miami has dictated the early tempo. Both teams got 2 second chance points from their only offensive rebound.

In the second segment, the Cats continued with their 50% shooting, but only managed to convert 4 of 7 free throws, including a miss on the front end of the bonus, to ease back to within 1 point of Miami, 16-17 at the under 12 TV timeout. In that segment, Miami committed 4 turnovers on their 6 possessions, but their 2-2 three point shooting permitted them to maintain their fragile early lead. Through the first 8 minutes, the early pace is in the 70s,

Out of the timeout, the Cats missed another front end at the line, and missed their next three shots from the floor, while Miami made 3 of 4 shots, including their 5 th three pointer, to extend the lead to 8 points, 16-24, prompting a Kentucky timeout with about 10 minutes to play in the half. However, out of the timeout, the Miami onslaught continued to 30-16 before John Wall converted free throws to stop the Miami run at 30-18. The 3 rd game segment came to a merciful end with the Cats down 15 points, 18-33, and Miami in possession of the ball.

Miami opens the 4 th segment with another three pointer, and Patterson only makes 1 of 2 free throws at the other end, 19-36. A 3 pointer by Dodson, and an Orton basket gave the Cats one of their few runs of the game to cut the 17 point lead down to 12 points, prompting a Miami timeout. At the under 4 TV timeout, Miami maintained their lead, at 10 points, 26-36.

In the first 16+ minutes of this game, the pace has been between 70 and 80 possessions rate, and the Cats have grabbed 8 offensive board to 4 offensive rebounds for Miami, but Miami has converted its 4 second chance points into 9 second chance points while the Cats have only converted their 8 chances into 9 points. The Cats have committed 7 turnovers, 20.6% of their possessions.

In the final segment, the Cats closed the gap back to 3 points, 39-36.

The pace of the first half was 76 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for MIAMI. In first half, UK had 38 possessions while MIAMI had 33. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 8-4, but only barely won the second chance points 9-8. The Cats won the total rebound battle 15-12. The Cats grabbed a very strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MIAMI grabbed a high 36.4% of their misses.

MIAMI had an offensive efficiency of 1.069 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.900 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made only 7 of 12 attempts [58.3%] and Miami made 3-4 [75.0%]. The Cats shot the ball streaky during the first half, hitting very many of their early and late attempts, but experiencing a shooting drought during that fateful 3 rd game segment. Overall, the Cats made 12 of 24 attempts [50.0%] overall, and their 5-7 [71.4%] shooting from long range allowed them to climb back into this game after being down by 18 points. For MIAMI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was weak, 3-8 [37.5%], but MIAMI shot the ball very well from long range, hitting 10-16 [62.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 77 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 41 points, while MIAMI needs 38 points. Neither team reached the MAGIC NUMBER in this game, and as is usually the case when that happens, the last team to score won the game.

Second Half Summary:

Dodson gets the start for the second half, with Miller taking to the bench. After closing to a single point on a pair of free throws by Wall, the Cats missed their first 5 shots from the field, and Miami stretched their lead back to 5 points, 40-45 at the under 16 TV timeout, and Cousins to be on the line to attempt to finish the 3 point play the old fashioned way. Cousins missed the free throw, and the teams battled on more or less even terms during the second segment of the second half, with the Cats continuing to trail, now by 4 points, 46-50 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, Miami missed a three pointer, and Cousins put an offensive rebound into the basket to cut the lead to 2 points, prompting another Miami timeout, hanging onto a 2 point lead, 48-50, with just under 11 minutes to play in the game. After trading baskets, the Cats had 3 straight possessions with opportunities to either tie the score or take a lead, but came up empty all three trips, including misses on the front end of 1+1 by Patterson and Wall. The Cats trail 50-52 at a Miami timeout, with Miami holding the possession, and 8:13 to play. Out of the timeout, Miami committed back to back turnovers, resulting in a Wall run out basket, and a Kentucky possession at the under 8 TV timeout, and the score tied 52-52, which is the first tie since 14-14, and Kentucky has trailed ever since.

After the timeout, Cousins makes another put back basket, and Miller follows with a 3 pointer, to take the lead, 57-52 which matched their game high 5 point lead of 5-0 in the first minute of the game. However, a 4 point play, and another three pointer allowed Miami to tie the score again at 59-59. A Miller floater put the Cats back up by a single point, but Miami answered with their 14 th 3 pointer of the game to ease out to another 2 point lead of their own at the under 4 TV timeout and 2:58 to play in the game. When play resumes, Patterson will be at the line for 2 shots, but the Cats have not been effective at the line in this game, making only 11-19 so far, and missing at least 3 front end opportunities.

Patterson made both to tie the score. The teams traded baskets to 67-67 before Cousins made a basket while being fouled to give the Cats a 2 point lead with about 1 ½ minutes to play. Miami came up empty on their chance to tie or take a lead, and the Cats take possession with the shot clock off and about 30 seconds to play in the game.

After a Kentucky timeout with 20 seconds to play, Wall is fouled on the inbounds pass. Wall missed the second, and Miami managed to make a 3 pointer to tie the score with 6 seconds to play. However, John Wall hit a jump shot at the buzzer to give the Cats the win, 72-70.

UK scored its 72 points in a total of 81 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of a pitiful 0.889 ppp. MIAMI scored its 70 points on a total of 69 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.015 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 37-25, and the Cats won the offensive glass with a 18-7 advantage. Kentucky converted their 18 second chance into 21 points while Miami converted its 7 second chances into 8 points.

MIAMI had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.810 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MIAMI was able to convert weak 26.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line in this game, making 14-24 [58.3%], MIAMI made 9-12 [75.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-53 overall [49.1%] including a very strong 6-11 from long range [54.5%]. For MIAMI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 8-22 [36.4%] but MIAMI shot the ball extremely well from long range hitting 15-26 [57.7%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 18 point Cat win [75-59], and the outcome was significantly closer, 72-70. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.949 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.889 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.734 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.015 ppp.

Next Game On Schedule: Thursday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on Sam Houston State in the third regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

05
Cats Take First Quiz of the 2009-10 Season
Against Morehead