07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

07
The Cats Entertain Sam Houston State

On Monday night, the Cats needed a buzzer beating basket by Freshman John Wall to leave Rupp Arena 2-0 and victorious against a Miami of Ohio team that hit 15 of 26 three point attempts for the game. Yes, the Cats moved to 2-0, but relying upon buzzer beaters against teams like Miami of Ohio is hardly the formula that leads to great success over the course of a full basketball season.

Next up for the Cats is Sam Houston State of the Southland Conference. Last season, Sam Houston State finished 18-12, with a loss in the first round of the Southland Tournament to Texas San Antonio by 9 points. Sam Houston won the West division of the Southland with a 12-4 conference record, and second overall to Stephen F. Austin. Sam Houston finished with a Pomeroy Rating of #123. For comparison purposes, last year, Miami of Ohio finished 17-13 with a Pomeroy rating of #107, and Morehead finished with a Pomeroy rating of #150.

This year, the Southland coaches believe Sam Houston will win the conference regular season out right, and the BearKats have opened this season with 2 wins leading into their encounter with Kentucky at Rupp Arena.

Based on very limited data for Sam Houston State for the 2009-10 season, and Kentucky's two D1 game results, the NGE analysis indicates a 7 point win for the Cats, 73-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 84 possessions for each team. The Cats' offense has been sluggish in the early going, and the analysis indicates a continuation of that sluggishness is likely, 0.87 ppp, with a defensive efficiency returning to the under 0.8 ppp range, 0.79 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on Rider in the fourth regular season game of 2009-10.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the second game in a row. Dodson, and Orton will becoming from the bench again, and there has been speculation that Hood could move into the regular game rotation tonight.

The Cats start the game shooting 5 for 8 in the opening segment and raced out to a 14-7 lead. In the second segment, the Cats shooting returned to the 50% level but the defense held SHS scoreless in the segment, and the Cats extended their lead to 14 points, 21-7 at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace of this game is very fast, about 100 possessions for each team.

In the third segment, a pair of free throws and a pair of turnovers, numbers 6 and 7 for the game, was matched by a pair of three pointers by SHS, as SHS cut the 16 point lead to 10 points promting a UK timeout. Out of the timeout, SHS hit 3 more threes to cut the lead from 16 to just 5 points, 27-22. A 3 by Miller eased the Cats back out to an eight point lead, 30-22 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace slowed some for the Cats in the third segment, and is not on a 90-100 pace, while SHS continues on a 100 possession pace. Kentucky has committed 7 turnover on its from 28 possessions, an excessively high 25% turnover rate.

In the fourth segment, the Cats responded to the SHS shooting and the loss of their 16 point lead by hitting 4 out of 5 shots, both free throws, and no turnovers to rebuilt their double digit lead, at 13 pooints, 41-28. the pace has slowed to the mid 80s to mid 90s range as both teams are settling into their comfort zones for this game. However, SHS outscored the Cats 14-12 on the strength of 4 more three pointers to hold the margin at 11 points at the half, 53-42.

The pace of the first half was 88 possessions for the Cats and 92 possessions for SHS. In first half, UK had 44 possessions while SHS had 46. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 7-9, but handily won the second chance points 10-3. The Cats won the total rebound battle 20-16. The Cats grabbed a very strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds but for the first time this year, the Cats allowed an opponent to work the offensive glass as SHS grabbed a high 40.9% of their misses.

SHS had an offensive efficiency of 1.054 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 1.162 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7 of 9 attempts [77.8%] and SHS made 2-4 [50.0%]. The Cats shot the ball well from start to finish during the first half, 20 of 32 attempts [62.5%] overall, and their 6-11 [54.5%] shooting from long range allowed them maintain their double digit lead throughout most of the first half. For SHS, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was weak, 2-14 [14.3%], but SHS shot the ball very well from long range, hitting 12-21 [57.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 101 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 48 points, while SHS needs 59 points. Kentucky scored its 101 st point on a Free Throw by Cousins with 1:06 to play in the game and the Cats leading 101 to 90. The teams played out the final 1:06 as the Cats sealed their win at 102-92, and moved to 3-0 for the first time since the 2005-06 season.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half by hitting a three and two regular baskets to sprint out to a their largest lead, 18 point lead, 60-42, prompting a quick SHS timeout with a little over 18 minutes to play in the game. Over the remainder of the opening segment of the second half, the Cats maintained that perfect shooting, scoring 17 points on 9 possessions. However, SHS managed to score 10 points on 10 possessions, as the lead stabilized at 18 points, 70-52 at the under 16 TV timeout. The pace remains in the mid to upper 80s for the Cats and low 90s for SHS.

In the second segment, SHS again posted 10 points on 10 possessions, but the Cats only managed 4 points on 11 possessions, as SHS trimmed the 18 point lead to 12 points at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace has picked back up in the first 8 minutes of the second half just as it did in the first 8 minutes of the first half.

In a prolonged 3 rd segment, SHS continued to hang tough, and trimmed the one time 18 point lead to 8 points, 81-73 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:53 to play in the game. In an abbreviated 4 th segment, the Cats rode great shooting to take the lead back to 15 points, 95-80 at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:40 to play in the game. The teams played the final segment with SHS cutting the 15 point lead to only 10 points for a final score of 102-92.

UK scored its 102 points in a total of 96 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of very strong 1.063 ppp. SHS scored its 92 points on a total of 98 possessions for a very poor defensive efficiency of 0.934 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 48-33, but the Cats lost the offensive glass with a 14-15 disadvantage. However, Kentucky converted their 14 second chance into 16 points while SHS converted its 15 second chances into only 5 points.

SHS had an offensive efficiency of 1.048 ppp on its 83 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 1.049 ppp on its 82 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed good 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SHS was able to convert weak 30.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line in this game, making 19-29 [65.5%], SHS made 16-19 [84.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 36-60 overall [60.0%] including a very strong 11-22 from long range [50.0%]. For SHS, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 11-39 [28.2%] but SHS shot the ball extremely well from long range hitting 18-38 [47.4%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 7 point Cat win [73-66], and the outcome was significantly different with respect to total scoring and slightly different with respect to margin, 102-92. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.869 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.063 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.786 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.939 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 84 possessions, and the actual pace was 96 and 98 possessions for UK and SHS respectively.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on Rider in the fourth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

06
Cats Take Second Quiz of the 2009-10 Season
Against Miami of Ohio