07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

08
A Confused Rider Comes To Rupp

This week, the Cats toyed with a Miami of Ohio team and allowed that team to extend the game to the buzzer after falling behind by 18 points in the first half. Thursday night, the Cats opened their game against Sam Houston State with an impressive, and powerful 14-2 run, and then toyed with that team for the remaining 36 minutes for a 10 point victory. Indeed, wins are much better than losses, whether they occur by 2 points, 10 points, or 35 points. However, the margin of a victory, relative to the real strength of an opponent, can be as telling about how a team is actually playing than the mere number of Ws and Ls that the team is accumulating.

Yes, the Cats are 3-0 for the first time in 3 years. As an historical note, the last time the Cats opened with at least 4 straight wins was 5 years ago when the Cats beat Coppin State, Ball State, Georgia State, and Tennessee Tech before falling for the first time at North Carolina. On Saturday, the Cats entertain Rider at Rupp Arena in Game 4 of the 2009-10 season, intent upon moving to 4-0 in preparation for their first venture outside Rupp in Cancun, Mexico against Cleveland State next Tuesday.

Next up for the Cats is Rider of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season, Rider finished 19-13, with a loss in the first round of the MAAC Tournament to Liberty by 15 points. Rider finished third in their conference with a 12-6 conference record behind Siena and Niagara. Rider finished with a Pomeroy Rating of #170. For comparison purposes, last year, Miami of Ohio finished 17-13 with a Pomeroy rating of #107, Morehead finished with a Pomeroy rating of #150, and Sam Houston State finished #123.

This year, Rider has opened this season with 2 wins and 1 loss leading into their encounter with Kentucky at Rupp Arena. They opened the season on the road at Mississippi State with a 14 point win, 88-74, and added a 15-point home win over Lehigh, 86-71 before losing on the road at Virginia 46-79. Rider's play in their first 3 games has been erratic. They have averaged 73.3 ppg on 83.0 possessions per game, 0.884 points per possession, but they have allowed their opponents to score 74.7 ppg on 83.3 possessions, 0.896 ppp. Rider's early schedule strength, with Mississippi State and Virginia has been strong.

The Cats have averaged 83 ppg on 89.2 possessions per game, 0.931 ppp, but the Cats' defense has been porous the past 2 outings, and over the 3 games the Cats have allowed 73.7 ppg on 83.8 possessions, 0.879 ppp.

Based on very limited data for Rider and the Cats thus far for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 14 point win for the Cats, 81-67 in a game that will be played at a pace about 85 possessions for Kentucky and 83 possessions for Rider. The Cats' offense shook off its sluggishness that marked the prior games and posted 102 points in 98 possessions on Thursday night. The NGE analysis indicates a continuation of that revived offensive efficiency is likely, 0.95 ppp; however, the defensive efficiency may not return to the targeted under 0.8 ppp range, and is projected to be 0.81 ppp for this game. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the third game in a row. Despite scoring 102 points in the last game, the Cats did not get a single point from the bench, that was shorter than prior games due to the conspicuous absence of Dodson. The other bench players who participated were Hood, Harris, Stevenson, and Orton. It remains to be seen whether Dodson and/or Liggins will get into the game today or remain in Coach Calipari's dog house for unspecified reasons.

Kentucky opens with a miss from 3 point range and a turnover, while Rider hits its first shot to take the early lead, 2-0 and possession. However, the Cats traded baskets for most of the opening segment from this start until hitting 3 straight unanswered baskets to take a 10-6 lead at the under 16 TV timeout and 15:07 to play in the first half. In the opening segment, the Cats' shooting has been 5-8, but three early turnovers interfered with an even strong opening for this game. Rider is 1 for 8 shooting, and 4 for 5 from the line has kept them in the game, and Rider will have possession when play resumes.

In the second segment, the Cats' shooting slowed to 3 for 6, and Rider made 2 of its only 4 shots. However, 3 more turnovers by the Cats in this segment interfered with an opportunity to move the lead into double digits early. At the under 12 TV timeout the Cats lead 18-10. Through the first 8 minutes, neither team has made a 3 pointer in a game that figures to hinge on the perimeter shooting by Rider in particular. The early pace is 90 to 100 possessions. The Cats' efficiencies are 0.900 and 0.556 ppp respectively for offense and defense.

UK's first 3 pointer of the game came from Bledsoe with 10:30 to play to elevate the lead to double digits for the first time, 22-12. After a Rider basket, the Cats reeled off 7 unanswered points prompting a Rider timeout with 7:52 to play in the half and the Cats leading 29-14. Out of the timeout, Rider committed their 7 th turnover taking the game to the under 8 TV timeout. In the first 12 miinutes, the pace is in the low 90s, and the efficiencies have improved for the Cats to 1.036 and 0.500 for offense and defense respectively.

In the fourth segment, the Cats continue to expand upon their lead on the strength of 5-6 shooting, and despite 2 more turnovers, the Cats expanded their lead to 17 points, 39-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace remains about 90 possessions, but the pace of play has clearly slowed since the furious first 8 minutes. There was no stop in the Cats today as the first half winds down to 0:00, and the Cats outscore Rider 12-4 over the last 4 minutes to take a 51-26 lead to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 94 possessions for the Cats and 90 possessions for RIDER. In first half, UK had 47 possessions while RIDER had 45. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 9-7, and handily won the second chance points 11-4. The Cats won the total rebound battle 23-15. The Cats grabbed a very strong 52.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds but for the first time this year, the Cats allowed an opponent to work the offensive glass as RIDER grabbed a NCAA D1 average 33.3% of their misses.

RIDER had an offensive efficiency of 0.579 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 1.053 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 1.222 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 6 of 8 attempts [75.0%] and RIDER made 8-12 [66.7%]. The Cats shot the ball well from start to finish during the first half, 21 of 36 attempts [58.3%] overall, and their 3-9 [33.3%] shooting from long range. For RIDER, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 9-19 [47.4%], but RIDER shot the ball very poorly from long range, hitting missing all nine of their attempts [0.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 90 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 39 points, while RIDER needs 64 points. Kentucky scored its 90 th point on a free throws by Orton with 2:16 to play in the game and the Cats leading 90 to 57. The teams played out the final 2:16 as the Cats sealed their win at 92-63, and moved to 4-0 for the first time since the 2004-05 season.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins for the Cats with their 4 th 3 pointer of the game to stretch the lead to 54-26, but back to back Rider threes in transition cuts the lead to 22 points, 56-34 prompting a quick Kentucky timeout with 17:53 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats outscored Rider 7-2 over the last 2 minutes of the opening segment to lead 61-36 at the under 16 TV timeout. Rider will have two free throws when play resumes. In the third segment, the teams battled on even terms to a 69-44 score. In the third segment, the Cats extended their lead to 30 points, 80-50 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the 4 th segment, the teams slowed down their respective scoring pace, and the Cats added one more point to their lead, 31, at 86-55 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats finish the game with a 92-63 win.

UK scored its 92 points in a total of 92 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of very strong 1.000 ppp. RIDER scored its 63 points on a total of 92 possessions for a very strong defensive efficiency of 0.685 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 44-37, but the Cats battle on even terms on the offensive glass with a 18-18. However, Kentucky converted their 18 second chance into 24 points while RIDER converted its 18 second chances into only 11 points.

RIDER had an offensive efficiency of 0.703 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.611 ppp for its 18 second chance possessions. UK had 0.919 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed good 48.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while RIDER was able to convert a strong 40.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line in this game, making 20-27 [74.1%], RIDER made 23-32 [71.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 34-67 overall [50.7%] including a weak 4-16 from long range [25.0%]. For RIDER, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 14-40 [35.0%] but RIDER shot the ball poorly from long range hitting 4-17 [23.5%].

The Cats only committed 15 turnovers for the game, after 9 in the first half, and that is only 16.3% of their total possessions, which is in the target range for this team for this season. The Cats forced 20 Rider turnovers, representing 21.7% of the Rider possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 14 point Cat win [81-67], and the outcome was significantly different with respect to total Kentucky scoring and slightly different Rider scoring, 92-63. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.953 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.000 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.807 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.649 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 85 possessions for the Cats and 83 for Rider, and the actual pace was 92 possessions for both teams.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday afternoon, the first time this year away from Rupp Arena, as the Cats travel to Cancun, Mexico to take on Cleveland State in the fifth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

07
Cats Entertain Sam Houston State