07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

09
Cat Get First Challenge Away From Rupp in Cleveland State

The Cats opened the 2009-10 season with 4 confidence builders on the friendly Rupp Arena floor, and finished those early tune-ups without a stumble, as all members of the Big Blue Nation fully expected. Now Coach Calipari will introduce his young and inexperienced team to a new test, playing on a different court than Rupp, against an opponent that has started the season 3-1, Cleveland State, in the Cancun Challenge in Cancun Mexico.

The Cats are 4-0 for the first time in 5 years. As an historical note, the last time the Cats opened with at least 5 straight wins was 6 years ago when the Cats won their first 7 games before falling for the first time to Louisville at Rupp. On Tuesday, the Cats take on Cleveland State in Cancun, Mexico in Game 5 of the 2009-10 season, intent upon moving to 5-0. However, to achieve that goal, the Cats must defeat a stronger opponent than they have encountered thus far in this young season.

Cleveland State is a member of the Horizon Conference. Last season, Rider finished 26-11, won the Horizon Conference Tournament by beating Butler in the Championship game by 3 points, and losing to Arizona in the second round of the NCAA after disposing of a good Wake Forest team in the first round.. In the regular season, Cleveland State finished third in their conference with a 12-6 conference record behind Butler and Wisconsin Green Bay. Rider finished with a Pomeroy Rating of #60. For comparison purposes, last year, Miami of Ohio finished with a Pomeroy rating of #107, Morehead finished with a Pomeroy rating of #150, Sam Houston State finished #123, and Rider with a Pomeroy Rating of #170.

This year, Cleveland State has opened this season with 3 wins and 1 loss leading into their encounter with Kentucky. They opened the season on the road at St. Banaventure with a 10 point loss, and won three games at home over D2 Wilmington, Florida A&M, and the same Sam Houston State team by 15 points, 80-65. That the only common opponent thus far, and Kentucky beat Sam Houston earlier this week by 10 points, 102-92. Cleveland State have averaged 77.1 ppg on 83.2 possessions per game, 0.927 points per possession, and they have limited their opponents to only 66.9 ppg on 83.8 possessions, 0.798 ppp.

The Cats have averaged 83 ppg on 88.9 possessions per game, 0.934 ppp, but the Cats' defense has been porous, and over the 4 games the Cats have allowed 70.1 ppg on 85.5 possessions, 0.820 ppp.

Based on very limited data for Rider and the Cats thus far for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 1 point win for the Cats, 74-73 in a game that will be played at a pace about 86 possessions for Kentucky and 84 possessions for Cleveland State. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.86 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.87 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the fourth game in a row.

Both teams open with poor shooting and a pair of turnovers and the Cats eased out to a very fragile 1 point lead, 5-4 at the under 16 TV timeout. In this segment, CSU grabbed 3 offensive rebounds to none by the Cats, and each team turned the ball over twice. The Cats scored their 5 ponts on 7 possessions while CSU scored its 4 points on 10 total possessions. In the second segment, the poor shooting continued for both teams, and the Cats committed 4 more turnovers, a total of 6 in the first 8 minutes. However, CSU failed to score a single point, and the Cats extended their early lead to 5 points, 9-4 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats are hitting 50% of their shots, and CSU is only making about 13%. However, the offensive rebounding gap is 5-2 in favor of CSU, and turnovers are 6-4 in favor of CSU, and the Cats have made only 1 of 4 free throws, including a miss at the front end.

In the third segment the Cats continued their turnover fest with two more, bringing their total to 8 for the game, which is 34% of all possessions so far in this game. While shooting continues to hold up at the 50% level, poor free throw shooting and turnovers allowed CSU to outscore the Cats 7-6 in the segment, trimming what was once a 7 point lead [11-4] to only 4 points, 15-11 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the prolonged 4 th segment, the Cats outscored CSU 12-7 to move their lead out to 9 points, 27-18 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:52 to play. The Cats have committed 8 turnovers, but none during the last segment, so their turnover rate fell from 34% to 24% over the last 5 minutes of the game. CSU still leads the offensive rebounding battle, 8-4.

Out of the timeout, Hood drained a three pointer to extend the lead to 12 points, but CSU responded with 4 points of their own to cut the lead back to 8 points. The basket by Hood was the team's first 3 pointer of the game, and Hood's first basket as a Wildcat. After allowing CSU to cut the lead to a mere 5 points, 32-27, a Harrellson 3 pointer at the buzzer gave the Cats an 8 point halftime lead, 35-27.

The pace of the first half was 80 possessions for the Cats and 88 possessions for CSU. In first half, UK had 40 possessions while CSU had 44. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 4-9, and barely won the second chance points 8-7. The Cats won the total rebound battle 18-17. The Cats grabbed uncharacteristic low 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and for the first time this year, the Cats allowed an opponent to work the offensive glass as CSU grabbed a high 39.1% of their misses.

CSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.571 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.778 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 0.750 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 11 of 16 attempts [68.8%] and CSU made 7-9 [77.8%]. The Cats shot the ball well after a slow start to finish during the first half, 11 of 20 attempts [55.0%] overall, but their 2-6 [33.3%] shooting from long range was bolstered late by the makes by Hood and Harrellson off the bench. For CSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 7-19 [36.8%], and CSU shot the ball very poorly from long range, hitting 1-12 [16.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 67 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while CSU needs 40 points. Kentucky scored its 67 th point on a free throw by Cousins with about 5 minutes to play in the game and the Cats leading 67 to 44. The teams played out the final 5 minutes as the Cats sealed their win at 73-49, and moved to 5-0 for the first time since the 2003-04 season.

Second Half Summary:

In the first 8 minutes of the second half, the Cats broke the game wide open with continuing good shooting from the field despite only 8-13 from the line and 4 more turnovers. The lead at the under 12 TV timeout is 20 points, 53-33. In an extended third segment, the Cats managed 9 points on 9 possessions, but they allowed 10 points to CSU, as a lead that had once extended to 25 points was trimmed to 19 points, 62-43 prompting Coach Calipari to call at timeout with 7:04 to play. Out of the timeout, Bledsoe hit a three pointer to take the lead to 65-42, 22 points, at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:30 to play in the game. The Cats continue their fine shooting, 55.6% overall, and 50% from three, but their 17 turnovers, a rate of 24.6% has interfered with an otherwise very impressive offensive performance. At the other end, the Cats have limited CSU to less that 0.6 ppp for the game. The final score is 73-49.

UK scored its 73 points in a total of 80 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.913 ppp. CSU scored its 49 points on a total of 84 possessions for a very good defensive efficiency of 0.583 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 48-28, but the Cats lost the battle on the offensive glass 10-12. However, Kentucky converted their 10 second chance into 14 points while CSU converted its 12 second chances into only 12 points.

CSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.514 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.843 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.40 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed good 38.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CSU was able to convert a weaker 24.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line in this game, making 24-35 [68.6%], CSU made 10-15 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-42 overall [52.4%] including a strong 5-11 from long range [45.5%]. For CSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 12-38 [31.6%] but CSU shot the ball poorly from long range hitting 5-26 [19.2%].

The Cats committed 20 turnovers for the game which is 25.0% of possessions. The Cats only forced 12 CSU turnovers, representing 14.3% of the CSU possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 1 point Cat win [74-73], and the outcome was significantly different with respect to total CSU scoring and margin, 73-49. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.860 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.913 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.869 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.583 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 86 possessions for the Cats and 84 for Rider, and the actual pace was 80 possessions for Kentucky and 84 possessions for CSU.

Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday night in the Cancun championship game against the winner of tonight's Stanford-Virginia game. This will be the sixth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

08
Cats Entertain Finish Early Homestand Beating Rider