07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

11
Cats Will Entertain the Louisville Camp of the Big Blue Nation

The Cats celebrated their Thanksgiving last week in Cancun, Mexico with a pre-season tournament championship by virtue of back to back wins over Cleveland State and Stanford. The Cats needed some good fortune and an overtime period to put Stanford away, but at the end of the day, the Cats got it done remained undefeated in the early going, at 6-0, for the first time since 2003-04 when the Cats opened with 7 straight wins before falling prey to Louisville.

If the Cats take care of business and summarily dispose of UNC Asheville at Freedom Hall on Monday, they will match that 7-0 start and set their eyes on defending National Champions, North Carolina, in their annual game, this year in Rupp Arena. For the record, the last time a UK team started a season with 8 or more wins was the 1992-93 team that started 10-0 before falling to Vanderbilt in Nashville, and that team used its 10-0 start to propel it to a 30-4 season and a final four appearance.

UNC Asheville is a member of the Big South Conference. Last season, Asheville finished 15-16, lost in the second round of the Big South Tournament to Radford by 9 points. In the regular season, Asheville finished 4th in their conference with a 10-8 conference record, finishing behind Radford, VMI, and Liberty. Asheville finished with a Pomeroy Rating of #276.

This year, Asheville has opened this season with 5 losses in 5 starts, leading into their encounter with Kentucky. They lost on the road at Charlotte, Tennessee, and Georgia, and Asheville has lost at home to Campbell and Furman. Asheville has averaged 61.8 ppg on 90.2 possessions per game, 0.685 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 89.2 ppg on 88.4 possessions, 1.009 ppp.

The Cats have averaged 81.2 ppg on 87.6 possessions per game, 0.927 ppp, and the Cats' defense has been improving since the opening two games until the encounter with Stanford, and over the 6 games the Cats have allowed 66.3 ppg on 84.9 possessions, 0.781 ppp.

Based on very limited data for Stanford and the Cats thus far for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 33 point win for the Cats, 91-58 in a game that will be played at a pace about 88 possessions for Kentucky and Asheville. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.03 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.66 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 76 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the sixth straight game.

The Cats open with 4 of 6 shooting while Asheville hit 2 of 6 shots and the Cats raced out to an early 6 point lead, 11-5, at the under 16 TV timeout. In a refreshing fashion, the Cats played the entire first segment with no turnovers, while forcing 2 by Asheville. In the second segment, the Cats out scored Asheville 8-4, to expand their early lead to 10 points, 19-9 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segament, the Cats continues to expand their lead, this time by another 3 points, to 13 points, 27-13 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace of this game through 12 minutes is under 80 possessions for both teams. The Cats continue their hot shooting, making 11-19 for the game.

In the fourth segment, the Cats expanded the lead to 17 points, 37-20 at the under 4 TV timeout and with 3:25 to play in the first half. A pair of three pointers by Dodson and Patterson propelled the Cats to a 45-23 halftime lead.

The pace of the first half was 84 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for ASHEVILLE. In first half, UK had 42 possessions while ASHEVILLE had 35. Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 9-3, and won the second chance points 9-3. The Cats won the total rebound battle 18-13. The Cats grabbed a solid 47.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and ASHEVILLE grabbed a poor 25.0% of their misses.

ASHEVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.625 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 3 second chance possession. UK had 1.091 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 6 of 9 attempts [66.7%] and ASHEVILLE made 4-7 [57.1%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly after a very fast start to finish during the first half, 17 of 33 attempts [51.5%] overall, and 5-10 [50.0%] shooting from long. For ASHEVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 5-11 [45.5%], and ASHEVILLE shot the reasonably well from long range, hitting 3-9 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 80 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while ASHEVILLE needs 57 points. Kentucky scored its 80 th point on a dunk by Orton with 10:30 to play in the game and the Cats leading 80 to 36. The teams played out the final 10:30 as the Cats remained undefeated in their first 7 games for the first time since the 2003-04 season and won the game 94-57.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats only hit 2 of their first 5 second half shots, but 4 for 5 free throw shooting allows the Cats expand their 22 point halftime lead to 23 points, 53-30 prompting an Asheville timeout with 17:22 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats ran another 9 points to a 32 point lead, 62-30 at the under 16 TV timeout. The onslaught by the Cats continued eventually leading to a 20-2 run before Asheville could slow down the momentum, and a pair of Dodson three pointers extended the lead to a game high 40 points, 76-36 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Shortly after the timeout, the Cats scored 4 points to expand the lead to 44 points, 80-36, but over the rest of the segment, Asheville outscored the Cats 6-0 to “trim” the lead back to 38 points, 80-42 at the under 8 TV timeout. In addition, Asheville will be shooting free throws when play resumes, with a chance to extend their run to 8 points. Eventually, Asheville's run ended at 10 points, but the Cats responded late in the prolonged fourth segment to re-establish a 40 point margin, 94-54 at the under 4 TV timeout with 1:59 to play in the game. The final score is 94-57.

UK scored its 94 points in a total of 87 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.080 ppp. ASHEVILLE scored its 57 points on a total of 77 possessions for a good defensive efficiency of 0.740 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 41-30, and the Cats won the battle on the offensive glass 16-7. Kentucky converted their 16 second chance into 15 points while ASHEVILLE converted its 7 second chances into 7 points.

ASHEVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.714 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 1.113 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.938 ppp on its 16 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed below average 41.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ASHEVILLE was able to convert a very weak 21.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 14-21 [66.7%], ASHEVILLE made 5-9 [55.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 36-69 overall [52.2%] including a good 8-18 from long range [44.4%]. For ASHEVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a good, 14-34 [41.2%] but ASHEVILLE shot the ball well from long range hitting 8-20 [40.0%].

The Cats committed 8 turnovers for the game which is a season's best 9.2% of possessions. The Cats forced 19 ASHEVILLE turnovers, representing 24.7% of the ASHEVILLE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 33 point Cat win [91-58], and the outcome was very similar, 94-57. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.034 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.080 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.659 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.740 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 88 possessions for the Cats and 88 for ASHEVILLE, and the actual pace was 87 possessions for Kentucky and 77 possessions for ASHEVILLE.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against the defending National Champions North Carolina. This will be the eighth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

10
Cats Defeat Stanford in OT Take Cancun Championship