07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

12
The “REAL” UNC Comes Calling on Saturday at Rupp

All the tune ups are done for Kentucky, and starting on Saturday, December 5, 2009, the 2009-10 Cats must come to school prepared to “show and tell” the world what it has learned from all the hype and hope, the two exhibitions against NAIA level competition, and the first 7 games against a composite schedule that Pomeroy currently ranks as the 328 th “toughest” out of a total of 347 D1 teams. Yes, the Cats are undefeated, and yes the early numbers, while not stellar, have been solid enough to convince the majority of the Big Blue Nation, indeed the college basketball world, that these Cats are worthy of a #5 national ranking.

Not everyone in the basketball universe is convinced. [See http://www.docsports.com/2009/college-basketball-overrated-teams-974.html]. In addition, those who have been reading on these pages with any level of comprehension realizes that I also remain a skeptic.

Now, the stage is set for the two winningest basketball programs in the land to collide in their annual grudge match for bragging rights, their head to head competition for most all time wins, and their temporal race to cross the 2000 win line first. UNC is the defending National Champ, and is coming off multiple seasons of 30+ wins and two national championships since Coach Roy Williams returned to Chapel Hill to restore that proud program to national significance. He has succeeded beyond any doubt.

Like a tale of two cities, this match up story is indeed a tale of two programs. This is the best of times; this is the worst of times. Kentucky is not only not a defending national champion, Kentucky did not even have the opportunity to appear on the NCAA dance card last season, and has not advanced out of the first weekend of the tournament in so many years, that it has become only a distant memory of what it really feels and looks like to have a team capable of breathing the rare air where UNC has been residing. Kentucky has a new coach, who like Williams a few years ago, has been summoned to Lexington to restore this proud program to national significance. Whether Coach Calipari will succeed in this quest remains to be seen.

So, Is the 2009-10 version of the Kentucky Wildcat basketball team really worthy of its #5 national ranking, or is this Kentucky team wildly overrated based on the hype and hope swirling around the triumphant entry of Calipari into Lexington last April? Will this game on Saturday provide an answer to this burning question? It could, if UK either wins impressively or loses in an embarrassing home appearance, but any game decided in either direction by less than 10 points is more likely an inconclusive outcome, because the critics who contend that Kentucky is wildly overrated also argue that UNC is also wildly overrated. A close game will not resolve the open question for either team, while a solid double digit win by either side can provide the victor with strong argument that it, at the least, may be the real deal.

This year, UNC has opened this season with 7 wins and one loss in 8 games, leading into their encounter with Kentucky. UNC's sole loss came at the hands of Syracuse by 16 points at Madison Square Garden in their pre-season tournament Championship game. They have defeated Ohio State on the same neutral court, and their other 6 wins have all occurred at home in Chapel Hill, with their win this week over Michigan State being their most significant among their early home schedule. Pomeroy is more impressed with UNC's early schedule strength that UK's, but not by a huge amount, rating UNC's schedule to date as the 249 th “toughest.”

UNC has averaged 84.4 ppg on 90.6 possessions per game, 0.932 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 72.3 ppg on 89.6 possessions, 0.806 ppp. UNC's turnover rate through 8 games is 19.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 17.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Tarheels have grabbed 41.4% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.4 ppg on 87.7 possessions per game, 0.940 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.0 ppg on 83.9 possessions, 0.775 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 7 games is 19.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 17.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 45.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for North Carolina and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 6 point win for the Cats, 79-73 in a game that will be played at a pace about 89 possessions for Kentucky and 87 possessions for UNC. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.89 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.84 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 77 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the sixth straight game.

The Cats open with three quick turnovers and two Bledsoe fouls while UNC opens by hitting their first 4 shots and running out to a 9-2 lead, but the Cats closed the opening segment with a couple of Wall run out baskets to cut the lead back to 3 points, 9-6, at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats built on the 4 point run prior to the time out, and scored the next 12 points after the timeout to run out to a 9 point lead, 18-9, before UNC stopped the run with a basket just before the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats committed their fourth turnover as the teams returned to the bench for the timeout, and the Cats up 18-11.

In the third segment, Kentucky used 4 more UNC turnovers, and 4 more missed shots to run their lead to 19 points, 30-11 before UNC made 2 straight 3 pointers near the end of the segment to trim the lead to 16 points, 33-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace through about 12 minutes is high 80s for Kentucky to low 80s for UNC. Kentucky holds a 4-1 advantage on the offensive boards, and has a 4-8 advantage with turnovers. In the fourth segment of the first half, the teams played on the most even terms of any segment so far today, but the Cats did manage to extend their lead by 1 point to 17 points, 39-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. Cousins picked up his second foul of the game and UNC will be shooting 2 free throws when play resumes.

The pace has settled into a high 70s to low 80s range for both teams. The Cats have scored 39 points on only 33 possessions in the early going, while UNC has managed only 22 points on their 31 possessions. The Cats' offensive rebounding advantage has shrunk to 1, 4-3, and the turnover battle is now 7-10 in UK's favor. Out of the timeout, UNC outscored the Cats 5-1 prompting Coach Calipari to call a timeout with the Cats leading by 13 points, 40-27 and about 2 minutes to play in the first half. A three pointer by Patterson stopped UNC's 8-1 run, and sent the teams to the locker room with the Cats leading by 15 points, 43-28.

The pace of the first half was 82 possessions for the Cats and 86 possessions for UNC. In first half, UK had 41 possessions while UNC had 43. Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 4-7, and lost the second chance points 5-8. The Cats lost the total rebound battle 16-17. The Cats grabbed a poor and season low 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and UNC grabbed a strong 36.8% of their misses.

UNC had an offensive efficiency of 0.556 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 1.027 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 5 of 10 attempts [50.0%] and UNC made 2-4 [50.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very well after a very shaky start to finish during the first half, 16 of 28 attempts [57.1%] overall, and 6-9 [66.7%] shooting from long range For UNC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 7-22 [31.8%], and UNC shot the very well from long range, hitting 4-8 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 79 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 36 points, while UNC needs 51 points. Neither team reached the Magic Number in this game due to either great defense or poor offense, or both in the second half, as the Cats held on to defeat the defending National Champs 68-66, to move to 8-0 for the first time since the 1992-93 season when the Cats started with 11 straight wins.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half with a turnover, their 10 th of the game, and after the teams traded baskets, Kentucky had to use a timeout due to leg cramps by Wall with 18:46 to play in the game. With Wall on the Bench, the Cats do not score and UNC trims the one time 19 point lead to only 9 points as Cousins picked up his 3 rd foul. After the Cats missed another scoring opportunity from close range, UNC scored another basket cutting the lead to 7 points prompting another Kentucky timeout with a little over 16 minutes to play in the game. Clearly, UNC was not going to die early, and they are back in this game, 49-38 at the under 16 TV timeout.

In the second segment, the Cats answered the UNC challenge and stopped their surge at 11 points while John Wall was missing from the game. At the under 12 TV timeout the Cats maintained their 11 point lead, 53-42, will have possession when play resumes, and Wall will return to the game when the Cats put the ball into play. In the second half, the Cats have managed a scant 10 points on 16 possessions while UNC has scored 14 points on 17 possessions. UNC has expanded its halftime lead on the offensive glass by 1 and the turnovers are even, at 12 for each team for the game.

When play resumed, Wall's return was not the medicine the Cats needed, as UNC trimmed the lead to only 5 points, 54-49, and the only Cat basket of the segment eased them back to a 7 point lead, 56-49 at the under 8 TV timeout. Wall was in and out of the game during that segment as the Kentucky bench worked to treat his cramping legs. In the 4 th segment, the Cats continue to struggle on the offensive end of the floor, only scoring 3 points in 9 possessions, while UNC managed to score 7 points on their 9 possessions to cut the lead to just 3 points, 59-56 at the under 4 TV timeout. When play resumes, the Cats will have the possession. Cousins, Orton, and Bledsoe are all playing with 4 fouls. The Cats' offensive efficiency, that was over 1 ppp at the half has plummeted to only 0.77 ppp with 4 minutes to play in the game. UNC's efficiency was 0.65 ppp at the half has risen to 0.70 ppp with 4 minutes to play. UNC hold a huge +5 advantage on the offensive glass, and a +6 turnover advantage, and those 11 extra possessions are keeping UNC in this game. In addition, Kentucky's poor free throw shooting has opened the come back door for UNC.

In the final segment, the Cats held off the UNC charge and won the game by 2 points, 68-66.

UK scored its 68 points in a total of 85 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp. UNC scored its 66 points on a total of 89 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.742 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 39-27, but the Cats lost the battle on the offensive glass 11-16. Kentucky converted their 11 second chance into 7 points while UNC converted its 16 second chances into 16 points.

UNC had an offensive efficiency of 0.684 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 0.824 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.636 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed below average 34.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNC was able to convert a better 36.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 14-22 [63.6%], UNC made 7-13 [53.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-54 overall [44.4%] including a good 6-16 from long range [37.5%]. For UNC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a fair, 19-47 [40.4%] and UNC shot the ball well from long range hitting 7-20 [35.0%].

The Cats committed 21 turnovers for the game which is 24.7% of possessions. The Cats forced 16 UNC turnovers, representing 18.0% of the UNC possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 6 point Cat win [79-73], and the outcome was similar, 68-62. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.899 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.800 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0..828 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.742 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 89 possessions for the Cats and 87 for UNC, and the actual pace was 85 possessions for Kentucky and 89 possessions for UNC.

Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday night against Connecticut in the SEC-Big East Challenge in Madison Square Garden. This will be the ninth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

11
Cats Conclude the Preliminaries 7-0; Let the Real Games Begin