07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

13
The Cats Go to MSG and Put Their Undefeated Record
on the Line Against UConn

On Saturday afternoon, the Cats held off a second half North Carolina comeback attempt and held on to get a 2 point win at Rupp Arena over the Tarheels. In the first half on Saturday, the Cats rode a 28-2 run during the middle 10 minutes of the half to run over North Carolina on the way to a 19 point lead, 30-11, and used that run to establish what appeared to be a commanding 15 point halftime lead, 43-28. However, the second half was not nearly as impressive, and North Carolina worked for the entire half to close the lead into low single digits before Bledsoe made 4 of 5 free throws in the closing moments to seal the win, even though a buzzer beating 3 pointer by UNC trimmed the safe 5 point final margin to the final 2 point ending margin.

Prior to Kentucky's game against UNC, it was clear that the matchup would be a close one, and that a close game would not silence the critics who contend that both UNC and UK are currently over ranked. The outcome was close, and the doubts about the justification for the high early rankings continue to persist.

The victory extended the 2009-10 undefeated start to 8-0, the best start since the 1992-93 Cats started 11-0 on their way to a final four appearance in Pitino's 4 th year as the UK Head Coach. For the Cats to extend this start to 9-0, then must defeat a highly ranked UConn Huskies team at Madison Square Garden, a home away from home for UConn, where they have already played twice this young season.

UConn will bring a 6-1 record into the Wednesday night contest, part of the newly formed SEC-Big East Challenge. UConn's only loss this season was 57-68 to Duke also at MSG. In their most recent tune up for their encounter with the Cats, UConn managed to beat a pesty Harvard Crimson team at home, 79-73. In this game, UConn's defense appeared relatively strong through most of the game, limiting Harvard to 73 points on 89 possessions, but the UConn offense sputtered through most of the second half, which prevented UConn from ever establishing any separation from Harvard, even to the final buzzer.

Like UNC, UConn comes into this game against Kentucky with only one loss. However, unlike UNC, who had played an early schedule nearly as weak as Kentucky's, UConn's early schedule strength has been ranked by Pomeroy and the RPI SOS system as much stronger than the Cats' schedule. UConn's RPI SOS is rated 13th best as of this writing at 0.6324 while the Cats' RPI SOS remains below average at 0.4966, the 168th most difficult schedule. Pomeroy rates UConn's schedule as the 97th toughest, and UK's as #310 as of this writing.

UConn has averaged 77.0 ppg on 85.0 possessions per game, 0.906 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.1 ppg on 86.2 possessions, 0.756 ppp. UConn's turnover rate through 8 games is 15.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 15.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Huskies have grabbed 39.0% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 35.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.1 ppg on 87.3 possessions per game, 0.929 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.1 ppg on 84.6 possessions, 0.770 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 8 games is 20.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 17.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 44.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.7% of their missed shots.

When this raw performance data is compared head to head without consideration of schedule strength, and assuming a truly neutral venue, the Cats have earned a slight advantage over the Huskies, and their board work and better shooting should be sufficient to overcome the higher turnover rate. However, the disparity in the respective schedule strengths becomes the deciding factor in analyzing this particular matchup. This matchup probably provided great anecdotal evidence why the RPI SOS is unreliable at best, and particularly so in the earliest stages of a season.

Based on this data for UConn and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 11 point loss for the Cats, 67-78 in a game that will be played at a pace about 87 possessions for Kentucky and 85possessions for UConn. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.77 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.92 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 74 points.

For the first time this season, the Cats enter a game as the underdog based on the NGE analysis. As noted above, this analysis hinges upon the application of relative strength of schedules to the raw unadjusted efficiency values for these teams. The result of this analysis also flies in the face of nearly every member of the Big Blue Nation, who appear to believe that this UK team will handily defeat UConn on the neutral court.

The Vegas odds makers disagree with this assessment, as the line for this game opened with UConn a 1 point favorite in a game that could swing either direction.

However, the NGE analysis is not the only one that concludes UConn has the stronger team at this point of the season based on actual results. For example, Pomeroy ranks UConn at #39 and UK at #59, and Pomeroy reports schedule strength ratings of #97 for UConn and #310 for UK. In fact, the ranking difference at Pomeroy appears solely based on the schedule strength adjustments that Pomeroy applies to the raw efficiency data.

The Current RPI rankings also have UConn ranked significantly higher than UK. UConn (6-1) has a #7 RPI ranking while UK (8-0) is only #36 in the RPI at this time. Since UConn has one loss to UK's none, the disparity in their current ranking can only be explained by the disparity in their respective RPI SOS values, 0.4966 for UK and 0.6324 for UConn. UConn's RPI SOS is ranked as the 13 th toughest while UK's RPI SOS is ranked as the 168 th toughest.

So, has there really been such a disparate advantage to UConn's early season schedule as both RPI and Pomeroy have indicated?

Here is a comparison of UConn's and UK's opponents leading into this matchup, together with the current Pomeroy Ranking and RPI ranking for each opponent.

Kentucky

Morehead State 257, 245

Miami Oh 160, 162

Sam Houston 190, 216

Rider 213, 148

Cleveland St 211, 226

Stanford 130, 207

Asheville 336, 195

North Carolina 54, 71

Avg. Rankings 193.8, 183.5

UConn

William&Mary 74, 13

Colgate 291, 315

Hofstra 128, 61

LSU 153, 77

Duke 3 , 1

Boston U 168, 151

Harvard 69, 81

Avg. Rankings 126.6, 99.9

As this tabulation illustrates, on average, UConn's Opponents have higher Pomeroy and RPI rankings at this time, but are the differences consistent with the great disparity of schedule strength reported by Pomeroy and RPI?=. Furthermore, this analysis begs the question of how each of these opponents will rank at the end of the season.

The Kentucky – Uconn matchup at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night may shed some light on these questions.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the sixth straight game.

Kentucky won the opening tip, and went directly inside to Patterson for the first score, and a Wall steal led to a layup by Bledsoe, prompting a very early UConn timeont with 19:27 to play and the Cats up 4-0. The timeout did the Huskies no good at all, as the Cats completely dominate the opening 4 minutes, racing out to a 12-0 lead, forcing a second UConn timeout before the under 16 TV timeout and 16:27 to play in the first half. When play resumes, Wall commits at foul with 15:58 to play in the half, taking the teams back to the benches for the under 16 TV timeout and the Cats pitching a shutout, 12-0.

In that opening salvo, the Cats hit 6 of their first 8 shots, committed no turnovers, and missed 2 free throw attempts. In contrast, UConn missed their only 4 shots, and committed 4 early turnovers. The early pace is in the mid to upper 80s range.

After the timeout, UConn's game came alive, and they started a run of their own, scoring 10 unanswered to cut the lead back to 2 points, and send a loud message that they are not going to wilt under the initial heat that UK applied. After the teams traded points, UConn tied the score, and will have possessions when play resumes following the under 12 TV timeout with 10:53 to play in the first half, and the score tied, 16-16. In this prolonged second segment, UConn hit 7 of its 9 shots, while the Cats only made 2 of their 9 attempts, and committed 3 turnovers.

In the third segment, neither team was able to operate with great efficiency on their offensive ends, but UConn did manage to outscore the Cats 4-2 in the segment to take their first lead of the game, 20-18, at the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats have committed 11 fouls in the first 12 minutes of play, and are getting into some foul trouble with two first half fouls on Cousins, Orton, Wall, and Harris. UConn will have possession when play resumes. Out of the timeout, UConn made back to back baskets around a pair of UK missed shots to extend their current scoring run to 8 points, prompting a UK timeout with 6:45 to play in the half, and UConn leading by 6 points, 24-18. UConn extended their run to 10 points before Patterson could make a basket after an offensive rebound to end a 5 ½ minute scoring drought, and cut the UConn lead back to 5 points, 26-21. However, on the next UConn possession, UConn hit the offensive glass, getting 3 consecutive offensive rebounds before a Kentucky foul ended play at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:21 to play in the half. When play resumes, UConn will be shooting a pair of free throws. UConn takes a 6 point lead to the locker room at the half, 29-23.

The pace of the first half was 82 possessions for the Cats and 88 possessions for UCONN. In first half, UK had 41 possessions while UCONN had 44. Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 7-9, but won the second chance points 9-5. The Cats lost the total rebound battle 14-26. The Cats grabbed a poor 29.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and UCONN grabbed a powerful 56.3% of their misses.

UCONN had an offensive efficiency of 0.686 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.556 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 0.412 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.286 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 1 of 3 attempts [33.3%] and UCONN made 7-11 [63.6%]. The Cats shot the ball very poorly after a very hot start to finish during the first half, 11 of 33 attempts [33.3%] overall, and 0-4 [0.0%] shooting from long range For UCONN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 11-25 [44.0%], and UCONN missed their only attempt from beyond the arc, 0-1 [0.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 56 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while UConn needs 27 points. UK scored its 56 th point on a put back by Cousins with 6:15 to play in the game and UConn leading 56-51. UConn and Kentucky played out the final 6:15 and the Cats win 64-61 to remain undefeated with a 9-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1992-93 Cats opened 11-0 en route to the Final Four.

Second Half Summary:

The second half opened with a continuation of the sloppy offensive basketball at both ends of the court. The Cats did manage to trim 1 point from the halftime lead, to 5 points, 33-28, at the under 16 TV timeout. When play resumes, the Cats will have the ball. The Cats cut the lead to 1 point twice, the last time 35-34, but UConn quickly reestablished their 6 point halftime margin, 40-34. However, the Cats then scored 5 points in a row to cut the lead back to 1 point, and Patterson will be shooting 2 free throws when play resumes with a chance to put the Cats back into the lead for the first time since they lead 18-16, before a 10 point UConn run gave them the lead they have yet to relinquish.

Patterson converted on both of his free throws, and a Wall three pointer completed a 10 point UK run to put the Cats up 44-40 before a UConn basket stopped the UK run. The teams traded baskets as the Cats maintained their lead between 3 to 5 points, and at 3 pionts, 49-46 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment of the second half, the Cats continued to maintain their lead in the 3 to 5 point range, and led 56-53 with 4:51 to play when Dodson was forced to call a timeout to avoid a turnover. The Cats will retain possession when play resumes after the timeout.

A UK miss out of the timeout produced a UConn run out to cut the lead to 1 point, 56-55. Up 2 points, Cousins forced a shot attempt down low, and Bledsoe fouled out on the attempted run out by UConn, sending UConn to the line for a pair of shots that could tie the score at 60, but Walker only made one. However, the Cats can't get a shot off before the shot clock expires, and UConn takes advantage of then opportunity to regain the lead with under 90 seconds to play in the game. After a miss and an offensive rebound by Harris, the Cats get a timeout with about 48 seconds to play. After the timeout, Wall makes a 3 point play, the old fashioned way to put the Cats back on top by 2 points, 63-61 with 27 seconds to play in the game.

On their attempt to put the ball back into play, Wall and Cousins denied the inbounds pass, forcing UConn to take another timeout. UConn missed their attempt to tie the score, and Harris grabbed the rebound and was fouled. Harris made 1 of 2 attempts and UConn's 3 point attempt near the buzzer failed.

Cats win 64-61 and extend their unbeaten record to 9-0.

UK scored its 64 points in a total of 85 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.753 ppp. UCONN scored its 61 points on a total of 84 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 34-42, but the Cats battled the Huskies to a draw on the offensive glass 15-15. Kentucky converted their 15 second chance into 22 points while UCONN converted its 15 second chances into 9 points.

UCONN had an offensive efficiency of 0.754 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.600 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.467 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed below average 35.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UCONN was able to convert a strong 44.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 11-17 [64.7%], UCONN made an even poorer 14-24 [58.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-64 overall [39.1%] including a poor 3-12 from long range [25.0%]. For UCONN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 1-6 [16.7%] and UCONN shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 22-45 [48.9%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers for the game which is 16.5% of possessions. The Cats forced 20 UCONN turnovers, representing 23.8% of the UCONN possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 11 point Cat loss [67-78], and the outcome was quite different, a Cat win by 3 points, 64-61. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.77 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.75 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.92 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.73 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 87 possessions for the Cats and 85 for UCONN, and the actual pace was 85 possessions for Kentucky and 84 possessions for UCONN.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Indiana. This will be the tenth regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

12
Cats Defeat The "Real" UNC at Rupp

Find Out How This Team's Performance Measures Up Through 9 Games