07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

14
Cats Take Their Undefeated Game to Indiana

When UK announced its 2009-10 schedule, way back in August, most fans pointed to a three game sequence in early December as the first real test for this season's version of the Cats. The Big Three: UNC at Rupp [Defending National Champs], UConn at MSG [2009 Final Four team on one of the biggest stages in the game], and IU in Bloomington [A Major rivalry and the first real road game of the season]. Most fans believed that if the Cats could traverse that dangerous sequence with only one loss, the Cats would be in fine shape; two losses, and the Cats' youth would be exposed. Not many seriously considered either 3-0 or 0-3 as viable alternatives way back in August.

Well, the Cats have won the first 2 of this trifecta, and on Saturday, the Cats will take their undefeated basketball game on the road and into Assembly Hall against the Hoosiers. The Cats are one win away from completing this three game sequence 3-0, but if they do accomplish that feat, that is just one component of the early season accomplishments for this team.

IF, IF, IF, … Oh, how I despise the old If'ing game, but in this case, how can it be avoided. If the Cats win on Saturday,

• The 2009-10 Cats win the trifecta of big early season games; and

• The 10-0 start is only one game shy of the 11-0 start of the 1992-93 Cats, with the next 4 games all very probable wins, all at Rupp [Can you say 14-0 going into the Louisville game also at Rupp]; and

• The 10-0 start will match Coach Rupp's 10-0 start in his first year at UK way back in 1930; and

• At 14-0, this team would surpass the 12-0 start of the 1983-84 Final Four UK Team; and

• At 14-0, this team would match the 14-0 start of the 1977-78 National Championship Team; and

• At 14-0, this team would be one win over Louisville away from matching the 15-0 start of the great Issel-Pratt 1969-70 team; and

• At 15-0, this team will send the pundits scrambling into the UK archives to learn about the 1965-66 Rupps Runt team that started 23-0 and the 1953-54 team that finished the season undefeated 25-0 before opting out of post season play due to NCAA intentions to prohibit UK's best players from competing.

Well, let's not get too far ahead of reality here. The Cats can't waltz into Bloomington and leave with the W they covet without actually playing this game and defeating an up and coming IU Hoosier team. However, IF, a Huge IF, they do leave with that W, then all of the above comes into play, and this team will be poised to make its mark in the annuls of UK Basketball history.

No one suggests that the Cats have achieved this 9-0 start without having the talent, desire, and ability that any 9-0 start at the University of Kentucky suggests. However, there is also no denying that the manner in which this team has managed to post this 9-0 start has included nearly as many near losses [Miami, Stanford, UNC, and UConn] as solid, comfortable wins [Morehead, Sam Houston, Rider, Cleveland St, and Asheville]. So, no one can alter the 9-0 record, but similarly, no one can make the overall team performance levels through these first 9 games better than it has really been.

Indiana will bring a 4-4 record into the Saturday afternoon's contest. Indiana has lost this season to Mississippi by 18 points, Boston U by 4 points, George Mason by 3 points, and Maryland by 12 points. The Hoosiers claim victories over Howard, South Carolina Upstate, Northwestern State, and Pitt, by 10 points in their most recent tune up for their encounter with the Cats.

Indiana has averaged 73.5 ppg on 88.9 possessions per game, 0.827 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.8 ppg on 89.9 possessions, 0.787 ppp. Indiana's turnover rate through 8 games is 18.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Hoosiers have grabbed 34.7% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 35.6% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.2 ppg on 87.2 possessions per game, 0.908 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 84.4 possessions, 0.766 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 8 games is 19.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 18.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 43.3% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Indiana and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 4 point win for the Cats, 74-70 in a game that will be played at a pace about 89 possessions for Kentucky and 87 possessions for Indiana. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.81 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the ninth straight game.

IU won the opening tip, and hit a 3 pointer to set the early tone of this game. Before the first TV timeout IU hit 5 of 8 attempts in running out to a 12-4 early lead. However, the Cats trimmed that lead back to 5 points, 12-7, at the under 16 TV timeout and Miller will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. Miller made both to cut the lead to 3 points. However, IU score the next 5 points to reestablish that 8 point lead, 17-9 before the Cats scored back to back baskets to cut the lead to 4 points, 17-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. IU will have possession when play resumes.

In the early going, the story of this game is IU's red hot shooting verses UK's cold shooting. IU hit 7 of their first 13 shots including 3 of 4 from long range, while the Cats only hit 5 of 13 and committed 3 turnovers. However, in the prolonged 3 rd segment, the Cats shooting returned to a hot status, including 4-4 from long range, and the Cats moved out to a 9 point lead, 36-27 at the under 8 TV timeout and 4:36 to play in the half. In the very brief fourth segment, IU outscored the Cats 5-2 to trim the lead to 6 points, 38-32, at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:15 to play in the half. IU will have possession when play resumes.

Out of the timeout, IU made a 3 pointer and a 2 pointer around a UK miss to cut the one time 9 point lead to a single point, 38-37, prompting a UK timeout with 2:03 to play in the half. The teams traded points for the remainder of the half, and the Cats take that 1 point lead, 42-41 to the locker room.

The pace is about 74 possessions for the Cats and 64 possessions for IU, due solely to UK's 7-1 advantage on the offensive glass, and total dominance on the boards. That dominance has produced a 13-2 Kentucky advantage in second chance points. In first half, UK had 37 possessions while INDIANA had 32. The Cats won the total rebound battle 16-8. The Cats grabbed a strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and INDIANA grabbed an anemic 10.0 % of their misses.

INDIANA had an offensive efficiency of 1.258 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp for its 1 second chance possession. UK had 0.967 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 1.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 4 of 6 attempts [66.7%] and INDIANA made 2-2 [100.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very well after a very cold start to finish during the first half, 17 of 30 attempts [56.7%] overall, and 4-9 [44.4%] shooting from long range For INDIANA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very good, 12-19 [63.2%], and INDIANA was also very hot from beyond the arc, 5-8 [62.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 84 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 42 points, while Indiana needs 43 points. UK scored its 84 th point on a free throw by Bledsoe with 3:55 to play in the game and the Cats leading 84-63. Indiana and Kentucky played out the final 3:55 and the Cats win 90-73 to remain undefeated with a 10-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1992-93 Cats opened 11-0 en route to the Final Four, and at 10-0, Coach Calipari matches Adolph Rupp's 10-0 start in his first year as the UK coach, way back in 1930.

Second Half Summary:

In the opening segment, the teams traded baskets in the early going, and IU used that pace to pull back into the lead, 48-47, but that 1 point lead lasted for only a few seconds as the Cats scored the next 7 points to take a 6 point lead, 54-48 at the under 16 TV timeout and the Cats in possession of the ball. Out of the timeout, Dodson made three the old fashioned way to match the longest lead of the game, 9 points, 57-48, and following an IU miss, another Bledsoe 3 pointer, his 4 th of the game, extended the UK run to 13 points, and a 12 point lead, prompting an IU timeout. The Kentucky run extended to 18 points, 65-48, before IU ended its scoring draught with just over 12 minutes to play in the game at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, the Cats added another 11 points on 13 possessions, but IU scored 9 points on their 9 possessions, as the Cats remained at the 17 point level that the Cats' 18-0 run had established. The score is 76-59 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, the teams traded baskets and the Cats will take their 17 point lead into the final segment, 82-65 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams play out the final segment again on even terms as the Cats leave Bloomington with their first win at Assembly Hall since 1981, 90-73.

UK scored its 90 points in a total of 88 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.023 ppp. INDIANA scored its 73 points on a total of 76 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.961 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 49-24, and the Cats won the offensive glass 19-7. Kentucky converted their 19 second chance into 30 points while INDIANA converted its 7 second chances into 6 points.

INDIANA had an offensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.896 ppp on its 79 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp on its 21 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed powerful 56.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while INDIANA was able to convert a weak 22.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 13-21 [61.9%], INDIANA made an even poorer 8-14 [57.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 35-66 overall [53.0%] including a strong 7-14 from long range [50.0%]. For INDIANA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a strong 9-19 [47.4%] and INDIANA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 19-41 [46.3%].

The Cats committed 13 turnovers for the game which is 14.8% of possessions. The Cats forced 9 INDIANA turnovers, representing 11.8% of the INDIANA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 4 point Cat wn [74-70], and the outcome was quite different, a Cat win by 17 points, 90-73. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.83 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.02 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0..83 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.96 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 89 possessions for the Cats and 87 for INDIANA, and the actual pace was 88 possessions for Kentucky and 76 possessions for INDIANA.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Austin Peay at Rupp. This will be the 11 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

13
Cats Defeat UConn at MSG

Find Out How This Team's Performance Measures Up Through 9 Games