07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

15
Cats Return Home for Post Final Exam Game

The first semester of the 2009-10 school calendar is finished. Students at the University have taken their final exams during the past week, and during this week each season, the UK basketball team does not play until the Saturday after the last final is done. However, in a very real sense, the UK Mens Basketball team took its final exam during the week of December 5 – 12 when it played North Carolina, Connecticut, and Indiana in sequence over that 8 day span. The team passed each of its first semester final exams, and is ready to ease through the Holidays with 6 straight games at Rupp before the team jumps head first into the second season, the SEC with all its trapping.

Prior to the Indiana game, I ventured into the ol If'ing game, but a win at AP, and a perfect 10-0 start during the first semester is no longer a matter of speculation, but is now the reality for this team.

• The 2009-10 Cats won the trifecta of big early season games; and

• The 10-0 start is only one game shy of the 11-0 start of the 1992-93 Cats; and

• The 10-0 start matches Coach Rupp's 10-0 start in his first year at UK way back in 1930; and

• Given the next 4 opponents, all at Rupp, a 14-0 seems more than possible, but probable at this stage, and at 14-0, this team would surpass the 12-0 start of the 1983-84 Final Four UK Team; and

• At 14-0, this team would match the 14-0 start of the 1977-78 National Championship Team; and

• At 14-0, this team would be one win over Louisville away from matching the 15-0 start of the great Issel-Pratt 1969-70 team; and

• At 15-0, this team will send the pundits scrambling into the UK archives to learn about the 1965-66 Rupps Runt team that started 23-0 and the 1953-54 team that finished the season undefeated 25-0 before opting out of post season play due to NCAA intentions to prohibit UK's best players from competing.

Well, we still must temper our enthusiasm about the future just a little, but not nearly to the same extent of tempering that we needed prior to the trip into Bloomington last week. Make no mistake, this team has already made its mark in the annuls of UK Basketball history, and it is poised to force the historians to make additional changes over the next few weeks.

First up for this 6 game home stand will be Austin Peay.

Austin Peay will bring a 7-4 record into the Saturday afternoon's contest. Austin Peay has lost this season to Tennessee by 29 points, IUPIU by 14 points, NC State by 7 points, and Drake by 6 points. The Austin Peay's 2 point win over Ohio University represents AP's highest rated victim thus far this season.

Austin Peay has averaged 72.5 ppg on 69.6 possessions per game, 1.042 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.2 ppg on 69.3 possessions, 0.998 ppp. Austin Peay's turnover rate through 11 games is 20.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Austin Peay have grabbed 33.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 30.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.3 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.115 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.922 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 10 games is 23.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 21.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 44.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Austin Peay and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 12 point win for the Cats, 78-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for Austin Peay. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.10 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.94 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

A special note is in order regarding the absolute values of pace, efficiency and turnover rates reported here as compared to all prior similar pre-game analyses that I have presented. After the first 10 games, it has become clear that the Pomeroy definition of a possession does provide a better basis for comparison and analysis. This is a change in my position that I have adopted due to the dramatic difference in rebounding rates that have appeared for the first time this season. Future analyses will be based on the Pomeroy definition of a possession. For more detail about the change in position relative to this definition, visit the Big Blue Fans 4 UK website or use this direct link.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the tenth straight game.

Both teams open the game hitting shots, UK 3 of their first 5, and UP 3 of their first 6, as UK edges out to an early 8-7 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats hit 5 of 10 attempts while limiting AP to only 2 of 6 shooting and a pair of free throws to extend the lead out to 7 points, 20-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the teams each scored 11 points as the Cats maintained their 7 point lead, 31-24, at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace of this game is slower than average for the Cats, on a pace in the low 60s rather than low 70s. In the early going, the Cats have committed 3 turnovers while forcing 3, but this game is again swing in the Cats' favor due to superb board work. The Cats have 6 offensive rebounds that have produced 10 second chance points, while AP has 3 offensive boards that have given them 5 second chance points.

In the 4 th segment, the Cats extended their lead into double digits briefly at 12 points, but AP trimmed the lead back to 9 points, 40-31, at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the last segment of the first half with the Cats extending their lead to a game high 14 points, 49-35 at the half.

The pace is about 66 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for AP. However, the Cats' 11-5 advantage on the offensive glass gave the Cats 35 shots at the basket as compared to AP's 29 shots. That dominance on the glass has produced a 15-10 Kentucky advantage in second chance points. In first half, UK had 33 possessions while AUSTIN PEAY had 33. The Cats won the total rebound battle 21-11. The Cats grabbed a very strong 64.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and AUSTIN PEAY grabbed an average 33.3 % of their misses.

AUSTIN PEAY had an offensive efficiency of 0.758 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 1.030 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.367 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7of 7 attempts [100.0%] and AUSTIN PEAY made 6-8 [75.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very well during the first half, 18 of 35 attempts [51.4%] overall, and 6-9 [66.7%] shooting from long range For AUSTIN PEAY, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very good, 10-14 [71.4%], and AUSTIN PEAY was also ice cold from beyond the arc, 3-15 [20.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 92 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 45 points, while Austin Peay needs 57 points. Neither team reached the magic number, 92 points in this game, primarily due to the very slow start that UK had in the second half, when AP outscored the Cats 8-0 in the first 2 1/2 minutes. The Cats won 90-69 to remain undefeated with a 11-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1992-93 Cats opened 11-0 en route to the Final Four, and at 11-0, Coach Calipari exceeds Adolph Rupp's 10-0 start in his first year as the UK coach, way back in 1930. The UK Program now stands with 1999 total wins as a program, and will play for #2000 on Monday night.

Second Half Summary:

AP opens the second half outscoring the Cats 8-0 in the first 2 ½ minutes prompting a quick UK timeout with the score 49-43. The Cats used their timeout to their advantage and stopped the AP run, and played to the end of the segment holding onto an 8 point lead, 53-45 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats stabilized their game, and extended the lead back to 13 points 62-49, at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the 3 rd segment, AP served notice to the Cats that they have no intention of going away quietly into the night, and trimmed the lead back into single digits, 9 points, 70-61, at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats outscored AP 5-0 in less than a minute, extending the lead back to the halftime 14 point lead, 75-61, prompting an AP timeout with 6:31 to play in the game. However, the timeout was not effective, and the Cats again outscored AP 5-0, to take the lead to 19 points, 80-61, prompting another AP timeout with 5:14 to play in the game. The teams finished the 4 th segment with the Cats up by 18 points, 82-64. The teams played out the final segment and the Cats secured its 11 th straight victory without a defeat this season, 90-69.

UK scored its 90 points in a total of 68 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.323 ppp. AUSTIN PEAY scored its 69 points on a total of 69 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.943 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 44-24, and the Cats won the offensive glass 19-13. Kentucky converted their 19 second chance into 26 points while AUSTIN PEAY converted its 13 second chances into 16 points.

AUSTIN PEAY had an offensive efficiency of 0.768 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.231 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had 0.941 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.368 ppp on its 19 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed powerful 63.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUSTIN PEAY was able to convert a better than average 34.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot perfectly from the line, making 18-18 [100.0%] which is the best free throw shooting by a Kentucky team for a single game since the 1983 Cats hit 19 of 19 against Mississippi State. AUSTIN PEAY made a very good 12-14 [85.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 32-63 overall [50.8%] including a strong 8-12 from long range [66.7%]. For AUSTIN PEAY, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a fair 9-27 [33.3%] and AUSTIN PEAY shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 15-37 [40.5%].

The Cats committed 16 turnovers for the game which is 23.5% of possessions. The Cats forced 11 AUSTIN PEAY turnovers, representing 15.9% of the AUSTIN PEAY possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 12 point Cat wn [78-66], and the outcome was a little different, a Cat win by 21 points, 90-69. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.10 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.32 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.94 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.00 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 70 for AUSTIN PEAY, and the actual pace was 68 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for AUSTIN PEAY.

Next Game On Schedule: Monday night against Drexel at Rupp. This will be the 12 th regular season game of 2009-10, and a victory will give the UK Program #2000 all time win, the first program to cross that milestone.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

14
Cats Defeat Indiana at Bloomington

Find Out How This Team's Performance Measures Up Through 9 Games