07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

16
Cats Go For Number 2000-Drexel Is Incidental

Five days ‘til Christmas, the Cats stand at 11-0, and life is good for the Big Blue Nation. Before this season started, everyone in the college basketball universe knew that UK would not only get its 2000 th program win this season, and that UK would be the first program to reach that milestone. Some even believed that it could happen before Christmas 2009, and if not certainly before Old Man Time rang in the New Year. However, this writer did not believe that it could happen as early as December 21, 2009 because that would translate into a perfect 12-0 start for the season.

Regardless of this fans' expectation, I have heard Mitch Barnhart say in early November that UK was planning to celebrate this accomplishment on December 21, 2009, and when I heard him say that, I chuckled to myself, and commended him and his staff for their public display of a positive attitude and high expectations for this team. But, I did not really believe he could be serious. Now, I believe I was wrong all along, and yes, this team has deserved that level of confidence from those of us who observe from the outside.

The name of the opponent for this particular game is really simply an incidental factor, a name that will become the subject of trivia questions 5 or 10 years from now when the future old timers remember back to the day, and explain to the next generation of Big Blue Nation citizens about the grand history and tradition of this program.

Oh yeah, the answer to that trivia question will be DREXEL!!!!

This 11-0 [soon to be 12-0] start has forced the UKAA to rewrite certain portions of the UK Basketball record book..

• The 11-0 start is the best ever by a UK Coach in his first year; and

• The 11-0 start matches the 11-0 start of the 1992-93 Cats on their way to the Final Four.

Drexel will bring a 6-5 record into Monday night's contest. Drexel has lost this season to Villanova by 19, Cornell by 7, Niagara by 7, Rutgers by 2, and St Joseph's by 10 in OT. The Drexel's 2 point win over Northeastern represents DREXEL's highest rated victim thus far this season.

Drexel has averaged 62.4 ppg on 75.0 possessions per game, 0.831 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 60.3 ppg on 73.9 possessions, 0.816 ppp. Drexel's turnover rate through 11 games is 17.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Drexel has grabbed 32.7% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 30.9% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.131 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.8 ppg on 70.9 possessions, 0.929 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 10 games is 23.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 46.3% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Drexel and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 22 point win for the Cats, 78-56 in a game that will be played at a pace about 73 possessions for Kentucky and 73 possessions for Drexel. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.07 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.77 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the eleventh straight game.

The Cats opened by winning the opening tip, and immediately scoring the opening basket of the game. The Cats scored 6 before Drexel made their first basket, a 3 pointer, but 2 more UK baskets extended the lead to 10-3, prompting a quick Drexel timeout with 17:15 to play in the first half. The timeout did not even slow down the Wildcats, as they proceeded to put 5 more unanswered on the board to build a 12 point lead, 15-3, at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats extended their 9-0 run to 17-2, and a 23-5 lead, prompting Drexel's second timeout of the first half with 13:39 to play in the half. By the end of the second segment, the Cats had more than tripled Drexel's points, 28-9, for a 19 point lead at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the first 8 minutes, the pace of the game has been very fast, 80 to 85 possessions. The Cats have hit nearly 65% of their shots, including 3-4 from long range with 3 pointers by Patterson, Harris and Liggins, all in the second segment. The Cats have committed 2 turnovers, and have owned the boards at both ends of the floor, 12-4 total, and 4-2 offensive. Drexel, in contrast, is hitting only 27% of its shots, and has committed 3 turnovers to UK's 2.

In the third segment, the Cats and Drexel traded points for the first time in this game, with Drexel scoring 5 points on 5 possessions, and the Cats getting 5 points on 4 possessions. Each team hit a 3 pointer, with Liggins getting his second 3 pointer of the game, as the Cats continue to lead by 19 points, 33-14 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace slowed considerably during that segment to the low 70s range for the game, which is more consistent with pre-game expectations regarding pace.

In the 4 th segment, the play continued at a slower pace as the Cats extended their huge lead to 26 points, 42-16 at the under 4 TV timeout. In the final 3 ½ minutes of the first half, the Cats outscored Drexel 14-4 to take a 36 point lead, 56-20 to the locker room at the half.

The pace is about 68 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for DREXEL. However, the Cats' 8-3 advantage on the offensive glass gave the Cats 34 shots at the basket as compared to DREXEL's 31 shots. That dominance on the glass has produced a 11-0 Kentucky advantage in second chance points. In first half, UK had 34 possessions while DREXEL had 33. The Cats won the total rebound battle 27-10. The Cats grabbed a very strong 53.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and DREXEL grabbed an anemic 13.6% of their misses.

DREXEL had an offensive efficiency of 0.667 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 3second chance possession. UK had 1.731 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.375 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 13of 13 attempts [100.0%] and DREXEL made 0-1 [0.0%]. The Cats shot the ball very well during the first half, 19 of 34 attempts [55.9%] overall, and 5-7 [71.4%] shooting from long range For DREXEL, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very poor, 7-22 [31.8%], and DREXEL was also ice cold from beyond the arc, 2-9 [22.2%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 95 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 39 points, while Drexel needs 75 points. Neither team reached the Magic Number in this game. The Cats were on course to do so with 10 minutes to play, but after Coach Calipari emptied his bench, with the Cats leading 80-31, they were outscored 13-8 over the final 10 minutes of the game, as the Cats won 88-44 to remain undefeated with a 12-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1983-84 Cats opened 12-0 en route to the Final Four. In addition, this 12 th victory of the 2009-10 season marks the 2000 th all time win for the UK Basketball program, the first program to win 2000 games.

Second Half Summary:

The first half begins in the same manner in which the first half ended, with the Cats extending their first half ending 10-0 run to 17-0 at the under 16 TV timeout of the second half, and the Cats leading 63-20. In the second segment, for the first 4 minutes segment of the game, Drexel outscored the Cats 7-5, as the Cats maintain their lead at 68-27 at the under 12 TV timeout. Following a Drexel timeout with 9:37 to play, Coach Calipari emptied his bench. At the under 8 TV timeout the Cats lead by 49 points, 80-31.

At the under 4 TV timeout, the Cats lead by 49 points, 85-36. The final score was 88-44.

UK scored its 88 points in a total of 66 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.333 ppp. DREXEL scored its 44 points on a total of 65 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.677 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 45-22, and the Cats won the offensive glass 14-8. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 17 points while DREXEL converted its 8 second chances into 5 points.

DREXEL had an offensive efficiency of 0.684 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 1.365 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.214 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed powerful 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while DREXEL was able to convert a below average 20.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot nearly perfectly from the line, making 17-19 [89.5%]. DREXEL made a very respectable 5-7 [71.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-58 overall [53.4%] including a strong 9-13 from long range [69.2%]. For DREXEL, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 5-17 [29.4%] and DREXEL shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 12-38 [31.6%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers for the game which is 21.2% of possessions. The Cats forced 15 DREXEL turnovers, representing 23.1% of the DREXEL possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 22 point Cat wn [79-65], and the outcome had double the predicted margin, a Cat win by 44 points, 88-44. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.08 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.33 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.75 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 68 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 70 for DREXEL, and the actual pace was 66 possessions for Kentucky and 65 possessions for DREXEL.

Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday afternoon against Long Beach State at Rupp. This will be the 13 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

15
Cats Defeat Go 11-0 Against Austin Peay

Find Out How This Team's Performance Measures Up Through 9 Games