07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

17
With Celebrations Over, Cats Focus On Increasing Recent Gains

The Cats are 12-0, delivered the 2000 th all-time win to the UK record books, and are ready to take a brief pause after today's game for Christmas before returning their collective focus upon sustaining and increasing upon the solid gains they have made in the strength of their game. Make no mistake, this young team started the season by hitting a few pot holes in their path, but they maneuvered their way through that early unpaved road to paved secondary road, and now they have reached paved, improved primary routes.

Their goal is to enter the high speed interstate system where they can set their engines on cruise control, and simply blast their way past all the other travelers of those high performance routes. This team is nearly there. Their 44 point win over Drexel on Monday night propelled this team in their journey, and with about 3 more correct highway maneuvers between now and January 3 rd , they will be a formidable foe for any other traveler to contest on the open highways.

To translate these travel speeds into the language of the game, NGE, the Cats started the season with NGE values in the range of 0.17 to 0.18 points per possession. No question that a NGE of 0.17 to 0.18 is better than recent UK teams had posted for entire seasons, but that level of performance, if sustained for this season, would not be sufficient to sustain the uphill demands of March Madness. By early December, these young Cats had accelerated to a NGE of 0.19 to 020 ppp, which is significant and probably sufficient to provide the momentum a team will need to advance into the second weekend of March Madness, but probably not sufficient to play on the big stage on the last weekend. After Drexel, the Cats' NGE has propelled to 0.23 ppp, which is in the range of Final Four competitiveness, and the general perception is that this high performance vehicle still has not hit its optimum performance levels. If this team can increase their speed [NGE] another 5 to 10 percent, it will become the best team in the nation for this season, and everyone else will be chasing the Cats up that highway come March.

How exciting is it to be a member of the Big Blue Nation in 2009-10?

Through 12 games, Coach Calipari has settled into an eight player rotation as follows:

Wall 34.2 min/game
Patterson 31.5 min/game
Bledson 28.1 min/game
Miller 26.8 min/game
Cousins 19.2 min/game
Dodson 17.8 min/game
Harris 16.3 min/game
Orton 15.1 min/game

Of these 8, they have played in all 12 games, except Wall only played in 11 due to NCAA issues at the beginning of the season. None of the other 5 members of this roster have broken into double digit minutes, but Liggins, at 8 min/game in only 3 games stands to increase his minutes over the second half of the season. What will be interesting will be to see whether Liggins takes those minutes from the top 8 players, or from the other 4 reservists.

Stevenson 8.8 min/game 12 Games
Liggins 8.0 min/game 3 Games
Hood 6.6 min/game 7 Games
Harrellson 4.7 min/game 11 Games
Krebs 3.3 min/game 6 Games

This 8 player rotation is consistent with Calipari's history at Memphis and UMass. The biggest surprise to this fan has been Harris' ability to impress Coach Calipari and earn the 7th highest playing time on the team. What role Liggins' suspension has played in that outcome is difficult to assess from the outside.

Congratulations to Ramon Harris, and cheers from the peanut gallery for Liggins as he works his way into the rotation.

Long Beach State will bring a 6-5 record into Wednesday afternoon's contest. Long Beach State has lost this season to Texas by 33, West Virginia by 23, Clemson by 8, Notre Dame by 20, and Loyola Marymount by 5 in OT. The Long Beach State's 13 point win over Utah State represents LONG BEACH STATE's highest rated victim thus far this season, but they also claim an 11 point win over UCLA on their resume.

Long Beach State has averaged 76.5 ppg on 73.5 possessions per game, 1.040 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 75.4 ppg on 73.6 possessions, 1.024 ppp. Long Beach State's turnover rate through 11 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Long Beach State has grabbed 33.0% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 34.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.8 ppg on 71.4 possessions per game, 1.145 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.0 ppg on 70.4 possessions, 0.909 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 12 games is 23.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed 46.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Long Beach State and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 16 point win for the Cats, 82-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 73 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for Long Beach State. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.12 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.92 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson for the twelfth straight game.

The Cats open hitting only 2 of 6 shots and fall behind in the early going 9-4. In addition, Cousins picked up 2 very quick fouls on a single play, sending him to the bench, probably for the duration of the first half. However, despite allowing LBS to get 5 offensive rebounds in the prolonged opening segment, the Cats managed to pull even at 11-11 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:00 to play in the first half. In the time shortened second segment, the Cats took their first lead on a Wall 3 point play, 14-11, but LBS scored the next 4 points to regain the lead by 1 point, 15-14 at the under 12 TV timeout Just prior to the timeout, John Wall picked up his second foul.

In the third segment, LBS extended their lead back to 4 points, 18-14, but the Cats then ran 9-1 points over the balance of the segment to take a 4 point lead, 23-19, to the bench at the under 8 TV timeout. The early pace of this game is in the mid to high 70s. The Kentucky efficiencies are 1.00 at the offensive end and 0.86 ppp on the defensive end.

With about 7:14 to play, Patterson picked up his second foul of the game, and goes to the bench. In the balance of the fourth segment, the teams traded baskets with the Cats clinging to a 3 point lead, 30-27, at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:19 to play in the first half. In the final segment, LBS took advantage of 3-6 free throw shooting by the Cats and 1-3 field goal shooting to pull even, 35-35, with 22 seconds to play in the half. Each team scored 2 more points, and the teams head to their locker rooms with the score tied, 37-37.

The pace is about 74 possessions for the Cats and 74 possessions for LONG BEACH STATE. However, LBS's 7-5 advantage on the offensive glass gave the LBS 35 shots at the basket as compared to Kentucky's 32 shots. Despite losing the battle on the offensive glass by 2 rebounds, the Cats have a 3-1 advantage on second chance points. In first half, UK had 37 possessions and LONG BEACH STATE had 37. The Cats won the total rebound battle 22-21. The Cats grabbed a season low 26.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and LONG BEACH STATE grabbed 29.2% of their misses. Clearly, this was the weakest half of the season for UK on the glass.

LONG BEACH STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.973 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.143 ppp for its 7second chance possession. UK had 0.919 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7-12attempts [58.3%] and LONG BEACH STATE made 6-10 [60.0%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly during the first half, 14 of 32 attempts [43.8%] overall, and 2-9 [22.2%] shooting from long range For LONG BEACH STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 8-23 [34.8%], but LONG BEACH STATE was shot well from beyond the arc, 5-12 [41.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 75 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while Long Beach State needs 38 points. Kentucky scored its 75 th point on a basket by Cousins with 4:45 to play in the game and UK leading 75-62. The teams played out the final 4:45 of the game as the Cats won 86-73 to remain undefeated with a 13-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1977-78 Cats opened 14-0 in route to a National Championship.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins a sluggishly as the first half was played by the Cats, and LBS eased out to a 2 point lead, 46-44 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats' shooting was only 3-9 from the field and 1-2 from the line in the first segment while LBS hit 4 of their 8 shots and their only free throw in the segment. After trading baskets to a 51-51 tie, the Cats scored 5 straight points to take a 5 point lead, 56-51 prompting a LBS timeout with 12:54 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, LBS scored on a put back to stop the Cats' run at 5 points, and a 56-53 lead at the under 12 TV timeout. When play resumes, Patterson will be shooting free throws.

In the third segment, the Cats finally began to convert at the free throw line, making 7 of 8 attempts and easing out to an 8 point lead, 65-57, prompting another LBS timeout with 9:49 to play. At the under 8 TV timeout the Cats stretched their lead to 10 points, 69-59, and LBS will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. At the under 4 TV timeout the Cats lead 80-66 with 2:51 to play in the game. The final score, 86-73.

UK scored its 86 points in a total of 73 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.178 ppp. LONG BEACH STATE scored its 73 points on a total of 74 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.987 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 45-38, and the Cats won the offensive glass 14-13. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 10 points while LONG BEACH STATE converted its 13 second chances into 7 points.

LONG BEACH STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.892 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.538 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had 1.041 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season low 35.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LONG BEACH STATE was able to convert a below average 29.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 22-30 [73.3%]. LONG BEACH STATE made a poor 9-16 [56.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 29-65 overall [44.6%] including a weak 6-19 from long range [31.6%]. For LONG BEACH STATE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a strong 8-18 [44.4%] and LONG BEACH STATE shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 20-50 [40.0%].

The Cats committed 9 turnovers for the game which is 12.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 12 LONG BEACH STATE turnovers, representing 16.2% of the LONG BEACH STATE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 16 point Cat wn [82-66], and the outcome had was similar, a Cat win by 13 points, 86-73. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.12 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.18 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.92 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.99 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 74 possessions for the Cats and 73 for LONG BEACH STATE, and the actual pace was 73 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for LONG BEACH STATE.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night against Hartford at Rupp. This will be the 14 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

16
Cats Defeat Go 12-0; Get UK's 2000th All-Time Win

A Christmas Peak Ahead to the 2010 SEC Season