07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

18
YAWN!!!!! Cats Plan To Shake Off Holiday Blahs With Hartford

Last Wednesday night, it appeared as if the entire UK team had already checked out of the Lodge, the City, and the Program on their way home for Christmas with their family and friends. At the least, they played as if they only had one leg inside Rupp Arena, and their minds and hearts completely at other locations. Despite that fact, the Cats managed to leave town for their Holiday with the team's 13 th win against ZERO defeats, something that no UK team has managed since the 1977-78 Cats started 14-0 en route to the program's 5 th National Championship with a senior laden team.

Supposedly, the players have now returned to campus after their 4 day respite full of holiday turkey, ham, etc. with all the trimmings. They will also return full of praise, back slapping, and adoration. The players also understand that when they do return to the daily rigors that Coach Calipari has promised for the ensuing 3 weeks that they can expect nothing but basketball, 24/7, including 3 per day practice routines. Whoopee!!!!

Can't you hear the roar of these Cats in their eagerness to engage. Well, I suspect that the Cats' return to the realities of their basketball lives will include a degree of sluggishness created by these holiday blahs, and Hartford is the medicine that Doctor Calipari has prescribed to eliminate any remnants of those blahs.

Hartford will bring a 2-9 record into Tuesday night's contest. Hartford has beaten Marist [Pomeroy #333] and Fordham [Pomeroy #295] and has lost their last seven games. Among their losses are embarrassments to Dartmouth [Pomeroy #332] and St. Francis NY [Pomeroy #308]. However, not all their losses have occurred at the hands of bottom half of the D1 world. They lost at Baylor [#81] by 2 points, at La Salle [#125] by 13, and at Seton Hall [#39] by 33.

Hartford has averaged 65.0 ppg on only 65.8 possessions per game, 0.988 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.2 ppg on 65.5 possessions, 1.056 ppp. Hartford's turnover rate through 11 games is 18.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 22.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Hartford has grabbed only 26.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 36.6% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.1 ppg on 71.7 possessions per game, 1.144 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 70.8 possessions, 0.914 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 13 games is 22.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a nationally ranked #1 45.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.0% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Hartford and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 32 point win for the Cats, 86-54 in a game that will be played at a pace about 69 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for Hartford. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.25 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.79 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari will start Wall, Harris, Miller, Cousins and Patterson, and for the first time since early November, Coach Calipari starts with a different 5 players. In this case, the change is temporary to allow Eric Bledsoe some rest to allow his injured ankle to mend prior to Saturday's game against Louisville.

The Cats open by making 4 of their first 6 shots while Hartford only managed to hit 1 of its first 6 as the Cats race out to an 11-3 lead in the first 2 ½ minutes prompting a Hartford timeout. The timeout did very little good in slowing down the Kentucky machine, and the Cats continued to make baskets and extended their lead to 13 points, 21-8, at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:31 to play in the first half. In an abbreviated second segment, the Cats traded baskets with Hartford to continue to lead by 13 points, 26-13 at the under 12 TV timeout.

The early pace of this game is in the mid 70s range instead of the high 60s range expected prior to the game. In the third segment, the Cats outscored Hartford 7-5 to stretch the lead to 15 points, 33-18 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, the Cats ran 9-2 to a 42-20 lead, prompting a Hartford timeout with about 5 minutes to play. By the under 4 TV timeout, the Cats lead ballooned to 26 points, 49-23. Each team scored 8 points in the final segment for a halftime score of 57-31.

The pace is about 74 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for HARTFORD. Kentucky owned the boards at both ends of the floor in the first half. On the offensive glass, the Cats earned a 9-1 advantage that translated into an advantage of 8-0 on second chance points. The total rebounding advantage was 23-11 for the half.

In first half, UK had 37 possessions and HARTFORD had 35. The Cats grabbed a season average 47.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and HARTFORD grabbed an anemic 6.7% of their misses. HARTFORD had an offensive efficiency of 0.886 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 1second chance possession. UK had 1.327 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 5-9 attempts [55.5%] and HARTFORD made 4-4 [100.0%]. The Cats shot the ball well during the first half, 22 of 40 attempts [55.0%] overall, and 8-16 [50.0%] shooting from long range For HARTFORD, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 3-13 [23.1%], but HARTFORD was shot well from beyond the arc, 7-12 [58.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 102 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 45 points, while Hartford needs 71 points. Kentucky scored its 102 nd point on a put back by Harris with 1:00 to play in the game and UK leading 104-61. The teams played out the final 1:00 of the game as the Cats won 104-61 to remain undefeated with a 14-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1977-78 Cats opened 14-0 in route to a National Championship.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half by pitching a shutout in the opening segment, and putting up 14 points of their own to extend the lead to an embarrassing 40 points, 71-31 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats' lead expanded to 44 points, 84-40 at the under 12 TV timeout. Coach Calipari made a 5 for 5 substitution during the TV timeout. With about 12 minutes to play, the Cats have scored 84 points on only 49 possessions, 1.714 points per possession [Ed Note: I do not recall any such level of efficiency for 28 minutes of a game as this one] while Hartford has scored 40 points on 48 possessions, 0.833 ppp. Coach Calipari has clearly called off the dogs in this rout.

The five on the floor are Miller, Stevenson, Liggins, Dodson, and Orton. This new 5 continue to dominate, and extend the lead to 46, 92-46, at the under 8 TV timeout.

At the under 4 TV timeout the Cats maintain their lead at 36 points, 97-61 with just over 3 minutes remaining in the game. The Cats ended the segment with Stevenson, Harrellson, Harris, Liggins and Krebs on the floor. The final score is 104-61.

UK scored its 104 points in a total of 68 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.529 ppp. HARTFORD scored its 61 points on a total of 67 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0..910 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 41-24, and the Cats won the offensive glass 12-7. Kentucky converted their 12 second chances into 14 points while HARTFORD converted its 7 second chances into 6 points.

HARTFORD had an offensive efficiency of 0.821 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 1.324 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed below average 41.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while HARTFORD was able to convert a below average 19.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 8-14 [57.1%]. HARTFORD made a perfect 5-5 [100.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 41-68 overall [60.3%] including a strong 14-28 from long range [50.0%]. For HARTFORD, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a strong 12-29 [41.4%] and HARTFORD shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 10-29 [34.5%].

The Cats committed 7 turnovers for the game which is 10.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 14 HARTFORD turnovers, representing 20.9% of the HARTFORD possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 32 point Cat wn [86-54], and the outcome had was similar, a Cat win by 43 points, 104-61. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.25 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.53 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.79 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.91 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 68 for HARTFORD, and the actual pace was 68 possessions for Kentucky and 67 possessions for HARTFORD.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Louisville at Rupp. This will be the 15 th regular season game of 2009-10, and the final regular season non-conference game of the year.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

17
Cats Defeat Go 13-0; Players Go Home For Christmas

The History of UK v UL [smell]