07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

19
UK v UL This is IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Cats have played 14 games without a defeat. Louisville has played 13 games with 3 defeats. Throw out the record books. Throw out the odds. This is IT. UK v UL 2010!!!!

Nothing that has happened heretofore will matter once the zebras toss that ball in the air at about 3:30 pm on Saturday afternoon. Cats & Cards!!! Calipari & Pitino!!! Rupp Arena will be rocking and roaring!!!! This series has a history, and both sides can recite that history in their sleep.

Louisville will bring a 10-3 record into Saturday afternoon's contest. Louisville lost at UNLV [Pomeroy #68] by 5 points, and to Charlotte [Pomeroy #103] and Western Carolina [Pomeroy 86] by 22 and 8 points respectively at home. Other than a season opening neutral court win over lapless Arkansas, and their loss to UNLV, Louisville has not been out of the friendly confines of Freedom Hall. Louisville's most impressive victory thus far was on Wednesday night against South Florida [Pomeroy #50] by 21 points, but no other Louisville victim this season has a Pomeroy rating better than #132 [Western Kentucky].

Louisville has averaged 82.0 ppg on 72.3 possessions per game, 1.135 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.5 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.926 ppp. Louisville's turnover rate through 13 games is 19.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 24.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Louisville has grabbed an impressive 42.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 33.8% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 83.6 ppg on 71.6 possessions per game, 1.168 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.4 ppg on 70.5 possessions, 0.913 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a nationally ranked #1 45.3% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Louisville and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 6 point win for the Cats, 77-71 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 71 possessions for Louisville. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.07 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 1.00 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari returns to his regular starting lineup with Bledsoe's return from time off to heal his ankle. The starters for this game aret Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson.

It did not take long in this game for the emotions to erupt on the playing floor. Within a few seconds on Louisville's first possession, Bledsoe fouled Delk, and after the players exchanged words, Coach Calipari sent Bledsoe to the bench for Harris. On Kentucky's first possession, a scramble for a loose ball resulted in three technical fouls, 2 on Louisville and one on Kentucky's Cousins. The Cats scored the first 6 points of the game, and Louisville finally broke the scoring ice with 1 of 2 free throws just prior to the under 16 TV timeout. A three pointer by Patterson extends the early Kentucky lead to 9-1 with about 14 ½ minutes to play in the first half. A Patterson run out off a turnover sent it to 11-1 before a pair of Louisville free throws stopped the second run of the day at 5-0. After the Louisville free throws, the Cats scored the next 4 points to close the second segment with a 15-3 lead at the under 12 TV timeout and Louisville in possession.

In the contentious third segment, both teams only managed to add 2 points to their totals, and Kentucky continues to lead by 12 points, 17-5 at the under 8 TV timeout. The early pace is a very high 80 possessions, and the Cats' efficiency is 0.708 while Louisville's stands at 0.208 through 12 ½ minutes of play. In the 4 th segment, the Cats again played an entire segment without a single field goal, and Louisville clawed back with within 8 points, 18-10 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:37 to play in the first half. Louisville will have possession when play resumes.

In the final segment, Louisville scored on a put back basket to cut the lead to 6 points, but a 7 point run by the Cats prompted a timeout by Pitinio with the Cats up by 13 points, 25-12 and with 1:35 remaining in the first half. After the timeout, Louisville stopped the Kentucky run and ended the half with a 5-0 run of their own from the free throw line to trim the Kentucky lead to 8 points, 27-19, at the half.

The pace is about 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 possessions for LOUISVILLE. Kentucky lost the battle of the boards at both ends of the floor in the first half. On the offensive glass, the Cats and Cards each grabbed 9 of their own misses that translated into a Kentucky disadvantage of 8-10 on second chance points. The total rebounding advantage was 22-24 for the half.

In first half, UK had 36 possessions and LOUISVILLE had 36. The Cats grabbed a low 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and LOUISVILLE grabbed a powerful 40.9% of their misses. LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.250 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.111 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 0.528 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 6-12 attempts [50.0%] and LOUISVILLE made 8-9 [88.9%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly during the first half, 10 of 30 attempts [33.3%] overall, and only 1-9 [11.1%] shooting from long range For LOUISVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 4-22 [18.2%], and LOUISVILLE was shot poorly from beyond the arc, 1-7 [14.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 51 st point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 24 points, while Louisville needs 32 points. Kentucky scored its 51 st point on a three pointer by Harris with 6:10 to play in the game and UK leading 52-45. The teams played out the final 6:10 of the game as the Cats won 71-62 to remain undefeated with a 15-0 record. This is the best start for any Kentucky team since the 1969-70 Cats opened 15-0, and Coach Calipari has become the first coach since Rupp to beat Louisville in his first opportunity as UK Coach.

Second Half Summary:

The Cards opened the second half with aggressive board work and much improved shooting including 2-3 from long range to cut the lead to 4 points, 33-29, prompting a UK timeout with 16:50 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats go directly to Patterson in the paint for a basket, and Wall fast break takes the lead back to 8 points, prompting a Louisville timeout with 15:45 to play and the Cats up 37-29 at the under 16 TV timeout. For the remainder of the second segment, the Cards trimmed the lead back to 4 points, 41-37, at the under 12 TV timeout and Louisville will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the second half, Kentucky's 7-10 shooting has been negated by 7 turnovers, meanwhile, Louisville has hit 7-15 but has only 2 second half turnovers. After the Cats missed a pair of free throws, Louisville pulled even for the first time in the game at 41-41 with 10:20 to play, as Coach Calipari called a timeout. Following the Cats' 17 th turnover, Louisville moved into their first lead of the game on a free throw, 42-41. John Wall responded with 6 unanswered points of his own, and a second chance basket by Stevenson sent the Cats back up by 7 points, 49-42 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:12 to play in the game. When play resumes, Louisville will again be shooting free throws.

The Cats outscored the Cards 9-6 in the fourth segment to reestablish a 10 point lead, 58-48 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:44 to play and Bledsoe at the line for a pair of shots when play resumes. The teams play out the final segment as the Cats move to 15-0 by a score of 71-62.

UK scored its 71 points in a total of 75 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.947 ppp. LOUISVILLE scored its 62 points on a total of 75 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.827 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 38-39, and the Cats lost the offensive glass 12-15. Kentucky converted their 12 second chances into 12 points while LOUISVILLE converted its 15 second chances into 14 points.

LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.640 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.93 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.787 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed poor 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE was able to convert a solid 36.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 21-34 [61.8%]. LOUISVILLE made a perfect 19-26 [73.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-52 overall [46.2%] including a pitiful 2-14 from long range [14.3%]. For LOUISVILLE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 5-17 [29.4%] and LOUISVILLE shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 14-42 [33.3%].

The Cats committed 18 turnovers for the game which is 24.0% of possessions. The Cats forced 19 LOUISVILLE turnovers, representing 25.3% of the LOUISVILLE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 6 point Cat win [77-71], and the outcome had was similar, a Cat win by 9 points, 71-62. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.07 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.95 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 1.00 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.83 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 71 for LOUISVILLE, and the actual pace was 75 possessions for Kentucky and 75 possessions for LOUISVILLE.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Georgia at Rupp in the 2010 SEC opener. This will be the 16 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

18
Cats Defeat Go 14-0 Against Final Cupcake of 2009-10

The History of UK v UL [smell]