07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

20
Cats Open 2010 SEC Season at Home against Georgia

Last year, in the midst of a complete collapse of the UK Basketball team over the last half of the season, Georgia waltzed into Rupp Arena and handed Kentucky basketball one of the most embarrassing moments in the history of Rupp Arena, a season ending home loss on Senior Night. Georgia was not a very good basketball team then, no correction, Georgia was a bad basketball team, without a head coach, and struggling to win any games at all, much less to defeat any Kentucky team at Rupp on Senior night.

Well, the Cats have licked those wounds, and healed them with the ointments of a new head coach, an infusion of great talent, and an undefeated non-conference season. However, the memories of that embarrassment linger among the Big Blue Nation, and Saturday is payback time. Paybacks Are Hell, or so the saying goes.

In fact, this Georgia game is just the first of many opportunities during the 2010 SEC for the Cats to deliver some long overdue paybacks to not just Georgia, but Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Arkansas. I have no idea what the Chinese Calendar has proclaimed for this year, but to basketball observers everywhere, and especially to the Big Blue Nation, 2010 is the year of the Cats.

Georgia will bring a 8-5 record into Saturday afternoon's contest. Georgia lost at UAB [Pomeroy #39] by 16 points, at Virginia Tech [Pomeroy #44] by 12, at St John's [Pomeroy 85] by 10, at Missouri [Pomeroy #9] by 28, and at home to Woffford [Pomeroy #122] at home by 3. . Georgia's most impressive victories thus far have been over Georgia Tech [Pomeroy #20] by 7 in Athens and over Illinois in Atlanta [Pomeroy #53] by 3 points.

Georgia has averaged 65.60 ppg on 63.3possessions per game, 1.037 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.5 ppg on 64.2 possessions, 1.005 ppp. Georgia's turnover rate through 13 games is 19.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 17.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Georgia has grabbed a solid 36.1% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 32.3% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.8 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.153 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.3 ppg on 70.9 possessions, 0.906 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a nationally ranked #1 44.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.7% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Georgia and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 18 point win for the Cats, 78-60 in a game that will be played at a pace about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 67 possessions for Georgia. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.15 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.90 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari opens SEC play with the same starting 5 that he used throughout the vast majority of the non-conference schedule: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson.

The teams both open with less than stellar shooting, and Georgia committed 3 turnovers on their first 8 possessions as the Cats eased out to an early 2 point lead, 8-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. Both teams got two offensive rebounds. In the second segment, the Cats utilized a must faster pace to score 11 points on 10 possessions while limiting Georgia to only 4 points on their 10 trips into offensive court. While the Cats' shooting remained soft, their offensive rebounding advantage [3-1 in segment] and turnover advantage [1-4 in segment] were instrumental in building the early 9 point lead, 19-10 at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, The Cats only managed 5 points on 5 possessions as the pace slowed considerably, and Georgia posted 7 points on only 4 possessions. Early in the segment the Cats established their biggest lead of the game, 11 points, 21-10, but Georgia outscored the Cats 7-3 thereafter to trim the lead back to 7 points, 24-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Wall missed a free throw, and Georgia scored 5 straight points to cut the lead to a pair, 24-22, prompting a Kentucky time out with 6:39 to play in the first half. However, Georgia continued their run after the Kentucky time out to take the lead 27-26 on a pair of free throws with 5:05 to play in the half. Eventually, the Georgia run goes to 14-2, and a 5 point lead, 31-26 before a Miller basket stopped the run and cut the lead to 3 points, 31-28 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:59 to play in the half.

The first half has been marked by very poor shooting overall [37.9%], 0-8 from three point range, and 6-11 from the line. The Cats still hold an overall edge in offensive rebounds and turnovers, but Georgia has hit 3-5 three pointers, and 11-24 overall to establish their lead. After establishing their biggest lead, 6 points, 34-28, John Wall scored the last 6 points of the half for Kentucky to trim the lead to 1 point, 35-34 at the half.

The pace is about 76 possessions for the Cats and 76 possessions for GEORGIA. Kentucky lost the overall battle of the boards 17-22 and fought to a 7-7 split on the offensive glass in the first half. That translated into a Kentucky advantage of 6-4 on second chance points.

In first half, UK had 38 possessions and GEORGIA had 38. The Cats grabbed a very low 31.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and GEORGIA grabbed a powerful 41.2% of their misses. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.816 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 0.737 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 10-18 attempts [55.6%] and GEORGIA made 8-11 [72.7%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly during the first half, 12 of 30 attempts [40.0%] overall, and only 0-8 [0.0%] shooting from long range For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 9-21 [42.9%], and GEORGIA was shot very well from beyond the arc, 3-6 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 70 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 36 points, while Georgia needs 35 points. Kentucky scored its 70 th point on a free throw by Cousins with 1:54 to play in the game and UK leading 70-64. The teams played out the final 1:54 of the game as the Cats won 76-68 to remain undefeated with a 16-0; 1-0 record.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats will have possession when play resumes. Harris started the second half in place of John Wall. The Cats started the 2 nd half strong, and regained the lead by 2 points, lastly at 41-39, but a 3 pointer late in the segment restored Georgia's 1 point lead, 42-41 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats used a pair of three pointers, their first of the day, to regain the lead, by a fragile 3 points, 52-49 at the under 12 TV timeout and the Cats will have Patterson shooting one free throw when play resumes.

Patterson converted, but Georgia came storming back from the 4 point deficit to regain the lead, 57-59, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 8:23 to play in the game. A pair of Bledsoe free throws tied the score 59-59 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the frantic 4 th segment, the Cats managed to outscore Georgia 6-3 to move back into the lead by 3 points, 65-62 at the under 4 TV timeout, and Georgia will have possession when play in the final segment of this game begins. Cousins scored 7 straight for the Cats, and Wall finished the scoring with the last 4 points as the Cats outscored Georgia 11-6 in the final segment for a 76-68 win.

UK scored its 76 points in a total of 74 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.027 ppp. GEORGIA scored its 68 points on a total of 74 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 33-36, and the Cats won the offensive glass 15-12. Kentucky converted their 15 second chances into 14 points while GEORGIA converted its 12 second chances into 4 points.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.865 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.838 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.933 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed fair 38.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert a solid 40.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 22-33[66.7%]. GEORGIA made a strong 12-15 [80.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-60 overall [43.3%] including a pitiful 2-14 from long range [14.3%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 6-14 [42.9%] and GEORGIA shot the ball very well from inside the arc, hitting 19-39 [48.7%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers for the game which is 18.9% of possessions. The Cats forced 26 GEORGIA turnovers, representing 35.1% of the GEORGIA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 18 point Cat win [78-60], and the outcome had was much closer, a Cat win by 8 points, 76-68. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.15 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.03 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.90 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.92 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 68 possessions for the Cats and 67 for GEORGIA, and the actual pace was 74 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for GEORGIA.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night at Florida in the first SEC road game of the 2010 SEC Season. This will be the 17 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

19
Cats Defeat Go 15-0 Against Louisville

Kansas-Texas-Kentucky
Midseason Comparisons