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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

21
Cats Take Their Unbeaten Record on the SEC Road

Georgia did not come into Rupp on Saturday like a little whipped puppy, ready to roll over to gain the praise of its master. On the contrary, Georgia approached their game against Kentucky aggressively, and while the Cats managed to get out of the game with their 16 th win of this season in 16 starts, the Cats knew when the dust had settled, that Georgia would be a tougher opponent next month when the Cats must return the visit to Athens.

Life on the road in the SEC is tough. Always has been, and this season is not likely to produce any significantly different conclusions. Each SEC team must play 8 times on the SEC road. The teams that win half or more of their SEC road games will compete for SEC championships. Teams that fail on the road in the SEC more often than they succeed will never be in the thick of the SEC regular season race in March.

Kentucky will get their first exposure to the SEC road in 2010 on Tuesday night in Gainesville. It will be the first trip to a SEC venue for Wall, Bledsoe, Cousins, Orton, and Dodson. Furthermore, not a single member of the current roster has gone to Gainesville and left O'Connell with a “W”. The last UK team to get a precious “W” in Gainesville was the 2003-04 team, and the last 5 UK teams have left with losses, by 1, 15,13, 11 in OT, and 3 points in their last 5 tries.

This is the historical backdrop for Tuesday nights Cats-Gators war.

Kentucky has the edge over Florida on the offensive end of the court, and for this particular game, Florida has an edge over Kentucky with their home venue. Both teams have performed about the same at the defensive end of the court. When all the relevant factors are added together, this game looks like a legitimate “pick ‘em” game. Pomeroy says UK by 1 point, 71-70. The GAMER system says not so fast, Florida by 2, 69-71. Any way you look at this one, it ought to be a real barn burner, and drawing from the tired cliché', the team that plays better will win this one.

While Kentucky is coming off a tough home win over SEC East door mat Georgia, Florida is coming back home after a tough 8 point loss to a strong Vanderbilt team in Nashville. Just as winning on the SEC road is part and parcel to competing for SEC honors, so is holding serve at home. A home loss to a contender would put the Gators behind the proverbial SEC 8-Ball just 2 games into the SEC season. On the other hand, a SEC road win in Gainesville would propel the Cats into an early season lead at 2-0, and 1-0 on the SEC road, keeping pace with West leader Mississippi State who got their first win on the road at Ole Miss on Saturday.

The game is huge for both teams for all these reasons.

Florida will bring an 11-4; 0-1 record into Tuesday night's contest. In addition to their loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday by 8 points, Florida lost three in a row in mid-December on neutral courts to Syracuse [Pomeroy #4] and Richmond [Pomeroy #57], and at home to South Alabama [Pomeroy #199]. Florida's most impressive victories thus far have been over Florida State by 13 [Pomeroy #18], and a neutral court win over Michigan State by 3 [Pomeroy #14].

Florida has averaged 73.5 ppg on 69.2 possessions per game, 1.062 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 61.7 ppg on 68.7 possessions, 0.898 ppp. Florida's turnover rate through 13 games is 19.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 22.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Florida has grabbed a solid 37.1% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 33.3% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.4 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.143 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.5 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.907 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 21.6% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 44.0% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Florida and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 1 point win for the Cats, 71-70 in a game that will be played at a pace about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for Florida. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.01 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 1.00 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari keeps the same starting 5 that he used throughout the vast majority of the non-conference schedule: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson.

The Cats open by missing their first 6 shots allowing Florida to race out to an early 7-0 lead, and the opening run was stopped by a Bledsoe layup, just before the under 16 TV timeout, Cats down 2-7. In the second segment, the Cats scored another basket to cut the lead to 3 points, 7-4 before Florida hit a pair of free throws to push the lead back to 5 points, 9-4 with about 13 minutes to play in the first half, and at the under 12 TV timeout. In the first 8 minutes, the Cats have hit only 2-13 shots, and 0-3 from long range. Florida is 3-9, and 1-6 from long range in the early going. Both teams have committed 4 turnovers.

In the third segment, the Cats hit 4 of 5 shots, including a pair of three pointers, and an old fashioned 3 point play by Cousins to give the Cats their first lead of the game, 15-13, with aobut 10:20 to play. However, the Gators exploded with a 6 point run of their own to regain the lead, 19-15, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 9:12 to play in the first half. The Cats respond with an 8 point run of their own to regain the lead, 23-19, prompting a Florida timeout with 7:19 to play. After 13 minutes of play, the Cats' shooting has improved to about 37%. In the fourth segment, the teams traded baskets to the under 4 TV timeout with the Cats continuing to hold a 4 point lead, 27-23. In the final segment, the Cats hit 4 of their 5 shots, and 3 of 4 free throws to finish the half strong to build a 7 point lead, 38-31, at the half.

The pace is about 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 possessions for FLORIDA. Kentucky and Florida fought on even terms for the overall battle of the boards 22-22 and Florida won the battle of the offensive glass, 9-7, that translated into a Florida advantage of 8-4 on second chance points.

In first half, UK had 36 possessions and FLORIDA had 36. The Cats grabbed a low 35.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and FLORIDA grabbed a slightly better 37.5% of their misses. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.639 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 0.944 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.671 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 4-5 attempts [80.0%] and FLORIDA made 8-10 [80.0%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly during the first 8 minutes, making only 4 of their first 14 shots, but finished the half by hitting 12 of their last 22 shots, and overall in the first half, 16 of 36 attempts [44.4%] overall, and only 2-7 [28.6%] shooting from long range For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 7-20 [35.0%], and FLORIDA was shot very poorly from beyond the arc, 3-13 [23.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 73 rd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while Florida needs 42 points. Kentucky scored its 73 rd point on a jump shot by Patterson with 4:42 to play in the game and UK leading 74-72. The teams played out the final mm:22 of the game as the Cats won 74-68 to remain undefeated with a 17-0; 2-0 record, including an ever important road win against a contender.

Second Half Summary:

In the opening segment of the second half, the Cats scored 10 points on their 6 trips into offensive court, while Florida only managed 7 points, as the Cats eased their lead out to 10 points, 48-38, at the under 16 TV timeout. Florida will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. In the second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 14 points, 55-41, but Florida charged back with a 9-2 run of their own to close the segment only down 7 points, 61-54 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the teams traded baskets until the Cats held a 10 point lead, 68-58, but Florida then ran off 8 straight points to cut the lead to 2 points, 68-66 at the under 8 TV timeout.

After Florida caught up at 72-72 with 5 minutes to play, the Cats took off on an 8-1 run to regain the lead at 7 points, 80-73 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:35 to play in the game. When play resumes, the Cats will have the possession. In the final segment, the Cats finished the job, winning 89-77 to move to 17-0, 2-0 and their first precious SEC road win of 2010.

UK scored its 89 points in a total of 71 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.254 ppp. FLORIDA scored its 77 points on a total of 72 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.070 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 42-38, but the Cats lost the offensive glass 14-16. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 17 points while FLORIDA converted its 16 second chances into 17 points.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.833 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.063 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 1.014 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.214 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed fair 38.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert a solid 36.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 10-13[76.9%]. FLORIDA made a strong 17-20 [85.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 36-70 overall [51.4%] including a pitiful 7-18 from long range [38.9%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 8-27 [29.6%] and FLORIDA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 18-41 [43.9%].

The Cats committed 10 turnovers for the game which is 14.1% of possessions. The Cats forced 10 FLORIDA turnovers, representing 13.9% of the FLORIDA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 1 point Cat win [71-71], and after the teams stood tied at 72-72, the Cats outscored the Gators 17-5 over the last 5 minutes of the game, producing an outcome with a much wider margin,, a Cat win by 12 points, 89-77. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.01 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.25 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 1.00 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.07 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 71 for FLORIDA, and the actual pace was 71 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for FLORIDA.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Auburn in the second SEC road game of the 2010 SEC Season. This will be the 18 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

20
Cats Defeat Georgia; Go 16-0

Kansas-Texas-Kentucky
Midseason Comparisons