07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

22
Cats Complete Two Game Road Swing at Auburn

17-0!!!!!

17-0; 2-0!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

17-0; 2-0; 1-0 on the SEC Road!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

17-0; 2-0; 1-0 on the SEC Road and a 12 point win over recent nemesis Florida in Gainesville!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Life is good for the Kentucky Wildcats in 2010, and the entire Big Blue Nation is buzzing with excitement. It is like the Old Christmas story with visions of undefeated seasons swimming in their heads. It is not enough that 17-0 is the third best start ever by a UK basketball team. It is not enough that the road win over Florida was not just a W, but a compelling performance on a contender's home floor. The Big Blue Nation wants more, and they seem to want it now.

Now! Well, NOW for this team occurs today in Auburn, Alabama against an Auburn Tiger team that has been anything but impressive this season, and is winless in two starts against the SEC East, losing to South Carolina at home at to a depleted Tennessee team by 26 points in Knoxville earlier this week.

There can be little doubt that this UK team is superior to this Auburn team. However, this Auburn team did show about 15 minutes of brilliance in Knoxville as they established an early 12 point lead over the Vols, but the Tigers could not sustain anything close to that early effort for the full 40 minutes, and the Vols outscored them by nearly 40 points over the last 25 minutes. However, there is also little doubt about this UK team's tendency to play down to clearly inferior opponents this season, and if the Big Blue Nation has any basis for concern about winnng this game, that concern is completely based on this UK issue rather than anything that Auburn might do, or even be able to do.

Auburn will bring an 9-8; 0-2 record into this game. As noted above, Auburn lost its first two SEC games this season. Through their non-conference schedule, Auburn posted a 9-6 record. They have lost to Troy [#185] by 4, Central Florida [#166] by 10, and to UK victim Sam Houston State [#136] by 18 points. Auburn's most impressive victory this season was a 1 point win over Virginia [#56] at home in early December.

Auburn has averaged 76.4 ppg on 73.9 possessions per game, 1.034 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 72.5 ppg on 73.5 possessions, 0.986 ppp. Auburn's turnover rate through 17 games is 20.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.2% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Auburn has grabbed a mediocre 34.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to get 31.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.8 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.148 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.2 ppg on 71.2 possessions, 0.917 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 20.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 21.2% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.7% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.5% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Auburn and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 8 point win for the Cats, 78-70 in a game that will be played at a pace about 73 possessions for Kentucky and 73 possessions for Auburn. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.07 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.96 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari keeps the same starting 5 that he used throughout the vast majority of the non-conference schedule: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson.

The Cats open by hitting 3 of their first 6 shots, and only 3 of 6 free throw chances to ease out to an early 9-6 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Both teams converted a pair of offensive rebounds into 4 points in the opening segment, but the Cats committed 2 turnovers to none for Auburn. In the second segment, the Cats again scored 9 points, but limited Auburn to only 3 in return, to double the score, 18-9 at the under 12 TV timeout. When play resumes, Auburn will be shooting a pair of free throws. The early pace is in the mid 70s to 80 range. The Cats have hit 6 of 13 shots, but only 5 of 10 attempts from the free throw line, and the Cats have 3 early turnovers.

In the third segment, Auburn used back to back three pointers to trim the lead to 4 points, 21-17, but Kentucky closed the segment with 4 points, and will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes following the under 8 TV timeout with the score 24-17.

In the fourth segment, the Cats continues their run to a 29-17 lead, the largest of the game, and then traded baskets with Auburn for a 31-19 lead at the under 4 TV timeout with Cousins on the line for 2 free throws when play resumes after the timeout. Through the first 16 minutes, the Cats and Auburn have had 27 possessions. In the final segment, the Cats continued to demonstrate complete control of the game, sprinting out to a 39-20 lead with 1:55 to play, prompting an Auburn timeout. Auburn closes out the first half scoring with another pair of three pointers for a 39-26 halftime score.

The pace is about 68 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for AUBURN. Kentucky owned the boards at both ends of the floor with a 27-14 advantage in total rebounds, and 8-4 in offensive rebounds that translated into a Kentucky advantage of 10-7 on second chance points.

In first half, UK had 34 possessions and AUBURN had 33. The Cats grabbed a strong and season average 44.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and AUBURN grabbed a very weak 17.4% of their misses. AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 0.576 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.853 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made only 16-27 attempts [59.3%] and AUBURN made 3-6 [50.0%]. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half, hitting 11 of 22 attempts [50.5%] overall, but only 1-4 [25.0%] shooting from long range For AUBURN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 4-17 [23.5%], and AUBURN was shot well from beyond the arc, 5-14 [35.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 72 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while Auburn needs 46 points. Kentucky scored its 72 nd point on a free throw by Wall with 0:09 to play in the game and UK leading 72-67. The teams played out the final 0:09 of the game as the Cats won 72-67 to remain undefeated with a 18-0; 3-0 record, including 2-0 on the important SEC road.

Second Half Summary:

After being down 19 points, 39-20 late in the first half, Auburn closed with the half's last 6 points, and then built upon that strong finish with a strong open to the second half, outscoring the Cats 11-6 in the first 3 ½ minutes of the second half, cutting Kentucky's one time 19 point lead to only 8 points, 45-37, prompting a UK timeout with 16:30 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats threw up an 18 foot air ball, and Auburn converted at the other end to cut the lead to only 6 points, 45-39 at the under 16 TV timeout, and Cousins will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the second segment, the Cats nursed a lead, cut to 5 points back to 9 points, 50-41, but Auburn made another assault on the Cats' lead to cut it to 3 points, 53-50, at the under 12 TV timeout, and Auburn will have possession when play resumes with a chance to cut the lead to one, or even draw even. Auburn did cut it to one, and after the Cats extended the lead back to 6 points, Auburn caught up at 60-60 on a pair of three pointers. The Cats scored a basket on the next trip, and stopped Auburn to take a 2 point lead, 62-60 and the ball into the under 8 TV timeout with 7:34 to play in the game.

In the fourth segment, the Cats extended the lead to 4 points twice, 64-60 and finally 66-62 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:37 to play in the game and Auburn in possession of the basketball. Leading 70-64, the Cats drew blanks on two straight trips, one making a turnover and the over a missed shot, and Auburn cut the lead to 3 points, and have possession with 19 seconds to play. Auburn missed their three point attempt, and Kentucky gathered up the rebound with 10 seconds to play. Wall makes both free throws to seal the win 72-67, and the Cats will return to Rupp Arena 18-0; 3-0 with 2 tough SEC road wins to their credit.

UK scored its 72 points in a total of 68 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.059 ppp. AUBURN scored its 67 points on a total of 68 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 34-30, but the Cats lost the offensive glass 9-11. Kentucky converted their 9 second chances into 12 points while AUBURN converted its 11 second chances into 11 points.

AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 824 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.882 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed poor 32.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN was able to convert an even lower 30.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 23-35[65.7%]. AUBURN made a weaker 8-14 [57.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-43 overall [51.2%] including a pitiful 5-14 from long range [35.7%]. For AUBURN, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 9-24 [37.5%] and AUBURN shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 16-36 [44.4%].

The Cats committed 16 turnovers for the game which is 23.5% of possessions. The Cats forced 12 AUBURN turnovers, representing 17.6% of the AUBURN possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 8 point Cat win [78-70], and after the teams stood tied at 60-60, the Cats outscored the Tigers 12-7 over the last 4 minutes of the game, producing an outcome with margin similar to that predicted,, a Cat win by 5 points, 72-67. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.07 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.06 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.96 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.98 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 73 possessions for the Cats and 73 for AUBURN, and the actual pace was 68 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for AUBURN.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Arkansas at Rupp Arena in the fourth SEC game of the 2010 SEC Season. This will be the 19 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

21
Cats Defeat Florida; Go 17-0; 2-0

Kansas-Texas-Kentucky
Midseason Comparisons