07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

23
Cats Are Poised To Be #1 As Only Unbeaten Team

The last time the UK Wildcats impressed the nation's coaches and writers sufficiently to merit a #1 wire service ranking was the end of the 2003 season after running the table in the SEC despite a shaky start in November and December. It has been nearly 7 years since then, 7 long arduous years for the Big Blue Nation. However, most observers say that if the Cats beat Arkansas on Saturday to remain the nation's only unbeaten team through 19 games, the Cats will ease back into the coveted #1 spot in the polls on Monday.

In recent years, UK teams have only managed to creep into the rankings on a couple of brief occasions, and each time, UK presence in the polls was short lived because the team quickly returned to losing ways. Players were quoted saying that perhaps the team played better without the pressure of such rankings. For me, such statements are BS rationalizations of sour grapes of the worst kind. In contrast, this team has embraced its high national ranking all season, and seems to thrive most when the national spot lights shine brightest. That is why I am convinced prior to the annual matchup with John Pelphrey's Hogs that the Cats will feast on port BBQ on Saturday afternoon.

This game has little to do with Arkansas, John Pelphrey, or even the SEC race. This game has much to do with spot lights, national prestige, and messages. Just as this team has tended to play down to lesser opponents throughout this season, this team has elevated its game when those national spot lights blare and the national media are watching most closely. That is why I believe the Cats will not just win, but win with authority and move into the #1 position in the polls on January 24, 2010.

Some people have said they view the Arkansas meeting as a trap game. Not me, and if there is a real trap game on the horizon, it will be next week when the Cats travel into Columbia, South Carolina with their bright and shiny #1 ranking in hand to take on a dangerous bunch of Gamecocks. But, that discussion must wait for another day. Today, the focus is only upon the task at hand.

Arkansas will bring an 8-10; 1-2 record into this game. Make no mistake, Arkansas has been playing much better basketball since Fortson returned to the court a few games ago even though the Hogs only have 1 win to show for his return, a 12 point home win over Alabama last week. However, Arkansas took a strong Mississippi State team to the wire before losing by 2 points in Starkville, and battled Texas [The Current #1 Team] before losing by 11 points in Fayetteville. Through their non-conference schedule, Arkansas posted a 7-8 record, but other than their loss to Texas, they played those games without Fortson. Arkansas's most impressive victory this season was their 12 point win over Alabama [#77] at home last week.

Arkansas has averaged 75.6 ppg on 72.0 possessions per game, 1.050 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 72.7 ppg on 71.4possessions, 1.018 ppp. Arkansas's turnover rate through 18 games is 18.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Arkansas has grabbed a weak 31.2% of their own misses and allowed their opponents to get 35.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.144 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.0 possessions, 0.920 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 21.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.4% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Arkansas and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 19 point win for the Cats, 83-64 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for Arkansas. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.15 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.89 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari keeps the same starting 5 that he used throughout the vast majority of the schedule: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins and Patterson.

The Cats open by hitting 4 of their first 5 shots, including an offensive rebound of the only miss to jump on the Hogs 10-0 in the first two minutes of play prompting a very quick timeout by Arkansas. Four different Cats scored to get to the first 10 points. However, the Arkansas time out served its purpose and the Hogs finished the opening segment by outscoring the Cats 3-0 to trim the early lead back to 7 points, 10-3, at the under 16 TV timeout. In that opening segment, the Cats made 4 of 8 shots while Arkansas managed only 1 of 8 attempts. Each team made their only free throw, and each team committed one turnover. Arkansas has 2 offensive boards to the Cats' one, and will have the ball when play resumes.

In the second segment, the Cats extended their lead to a game high 12 points 15-3, and the teams played the balance of the segment on even terms with the Cats maintaining a 12 point lead, 19-7 at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace of this game is above average for both of these teams, at about 80 possessions. The Cats have scored 19 points on their first 16 possessions for an efficiency of 1.188 ppp while they have limited Arkansas to only 7 points on 16 possessions, 0.438 ppp.

As has been the early pattern, the Cats extended the lead at the beginning of the segment from 12 points to 19 points, 26-7 in the first minute of the segment, prompting the second Arkansas time out of the first half. Out of the timeout, Rotnie Clark's first field goal of the day stopped the Kentucky run. This time, the Hogs could not stem the Big Blue Tide, and the Cats continued to control the game and expand their lead to 21 points, 34-13 at the under 8 TV timeout. In that third segment, the Cats scored 15 points on only 9 possessions to raised their game efficiency to 1.360 ppp through the first 12 minutes. At the other end of the floor, Arkansas did show some improved scoring, but their efficiency stands at only 0.542 ppp through the first three game segments.

In the fourth segment, the Cats extended their lead to 26 points, 42-17, but Arkansas was effective over the last minute of the segment to pull that lead back to 22 points, 45-23 at the under 12 TV timeout, and when play resumes, Patterson will be shooting a pair of free throws. Again, the Cats open a game segment with a run, this time 5-0 to establish a 27 point lead, 50-23, prompting a third Arkansas timeout with 2 ½ minutes remaining in the half. After Arkansas used a pair of Kentucky turnovers to score 4 unanswered points, Kentucky called a quick timeout with the score 50-27 and 1:35 remaining in the half. However, that Hog flurry was short lived as the Cats ended the first half scoring with another run, this time 7-0 to take a 30 point lead to the locker room, 57-27.

The pace is about 82 possessions for the Cats and 84 possessions for ARKANSAS. Kentucky controlled the boards 30-18, but lost the battle of the offense rebounds 7-9, translated into a Kentucky advantage of 9-6 on second chance points.

In first half, UK had 41 possessions and ARKANSAS had 42. The Cats grabbed a strong and season average 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and ARKANSAS grabbed a very weak 28.1% of their misses. ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp on its 42 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 1.171 ppp on its 41 first chance possessions and 1.286 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 13-14 attempts [92.9%] and ARKANSAS made 8-12 [66.7%]. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half, hitting 20 of 35 attempts [57.1%] overall, but only 4-13 [30.8%] shooting from long range For ARKANSAS, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 8-30 [26.7%], and ARKANSAS was shot even poorer from beyond the arc, 1-9 [11.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 100 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 43 points, while Arkansas needs 73 points. Kentucky scored its 100 th point on a rebound basket by Harrellson with 1:00 to play in the game and UK leading 101-68. The teams played out the final 1:00 of the game as the Cats won 101-70 to remain undefeated with a 19-0; 4-0 record and in all likelihood will be recognized as the nation's #1 ranked team on Monday.

Second Half Summary:

Just as they started the game with a 12 point run in the first 3 minutes of the second half, prompting an Arkansas timeout with the score 69-27. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Cats lead swelled to 43 points, 72-29, and the Cats will have possession when play resumes. In the second segment, Arkansas hit 2 of 4 shots and 6 of 6 free throws to nibble at the 43 point lead, and reduce it to an even 40 points, 80-40 at the under 12 TV timeout. Through 32 minutes, the Cats have scored 80 points on only 57 possessions for efficiency of 1.404 ppp, and the Cats have limited Arkansas to only 40 points on 58 possessions, for a defensive efficiency of 0.690 ppp. The pace remains at 80+ possessions, one of the fastest tempos of the season for Kentucky.

In the third segment, Kentucky only managed 3 points in 10 possessions, and allowed Arkansas to score 12 points, trimming the lead to “only” 31 points, 83-52 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, the Cats seem content to run out the string on this game, and again Arkansas outscored the Cats in the segment, 10-9 for a 30 point lead, 92-62 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the final segment for a 101-70 Kentucky win.

UK scored its 101 points in a total of 82 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.232 ppp. ARKANSAS scored its 70 points on a total of 83 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.843 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 59-39, but the Cats won the offensive glass 22-16. Kentucky converted their 22 second chances into 26 points while ARKANSAS converted its 16 second chances into 10 points.

ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.723 ppp on its 83 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 0.915 ppp on its 82 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp on its 22 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed powerful 48.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to convert on only 30.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot about average from the line, making 17-25[68.0%]. ARKANSAS made a stronger 23-29 [79.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 37-77 overall [48.1%] including a poor 10-33 from long range [30.3%]. For ARKANSAS, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 3-16 [18.8%] and ARKANSAS shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 19-56 [33.9%].

The Cats committed 15 turnovers for the game which is 18.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 14 ARKANSAS turnovers, representing 16.9% of the ARKANSAS possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 19 point Cat win [83-64], and the final Cat win by 31 points, 101-70, was considerably better. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.15 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.23 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.89 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.84 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 for ARKANSAS, and the actual pace was 82 possessions for Kentucky and 83 possessions for ARKANSAS.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night at South Carolina for the fifth SEC game of the 2010 season, and the Cats 3 rd SEC road game of the year. This will be the 20 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

22
Cats Defeat Auburn; Go 18-0; 3-0