07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

25
Cats Limp Home From USC To Take On SEC Leader Vanderbilt

Well, we now know with complete certainty that the Kentucky Wildcats will NOT run the table this season, as the South Carolina Gamecocks captured the moment on Tuesday night to hand this group of Wildcats their first loss of the season, dropping the #1 ranked UK team to 19-1, and more importantly at this time of year, 4-1 in the SEC. Vanderbilt will waltz into Rupp Arena on Saturday with their perfect SEC start, 5-0, intact after then waltz out of Knoxville on Wednesday night with a huge SEC road win, their third in this young conference season.

The SEC wars are usually defined by who gets the most wins on the SEC road, and using that sole criteria, Vandy leads this race after 1/3 of the SEC season with 3 and the Cats are nipping at their heels with 2. Holding serve at Rupp is critical for the Cats, doubly so in this game, because a loss will hand Vandy their 4 th road win, leaving them in a commanding position moving forward.

If Kentucky wants to win the SEC regular season championship, it must defeat Vandy at Rupp on Saturday. It is as simple as that. Saturday's game, therefore, is the most important game for the Cats of all the games played thus far. Lose at home to Vandy, and the Cats not only must run the table on all remaining games, but must hope for help along the way from someone to hand Vandy a second loss, e.g. Kentucky's ability to win the SEC depends upon others, and not just the Cats. Beat Vandy on Saturday, and the Cats have their own fate in their hands, e.g. by sweeping Vandy with a win in Nashville next month.

Vanderbilt will bring an 16-3; 5-0 record into this game. The Commodores finished their nonconference schedule 11-3 with losses to Cincinnati [#58] by 9 on a Neutral court, at Illinois [#49] by 11, and to Western Kentucky [#145] by 7 at a “Semi-Home” venue. In the SEC, Vandy has beaten Florida and Auburn at home and Alabama, South Caroliina, and Tennessee on the road. VANDY's most impressive wins this season have been over Missouri [#12] by 6 points at home, and Wednesday night's 9 point win at Tennessee [#20].

Vanderbilt has averaged 79.5 ppg on 71.4 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.9 ppg on 70.6 possessions, 0.949 ppp. Vanderbilt's turnover rate through 19 games is 19.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Vanderbilt has grabbed a decent 34.3% of their own misses but VANDY has allowed their opponents to get 33.7% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.1 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.137 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.7 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.918 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 20.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.0% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Vanderbilt and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates an 9-point win for the Cats, 80-71 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for Vanderbilt. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.11 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.99 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 76 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari makes a rare change to the starting lineup, coming off the first loss of the year: Wall, Dodson, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson.

According to Tom Leach, Kentucky has only lost at home one time while holding a #1 ranking, and that occurred 22 years ago, in 1988.

One Kentucky's first 2 possessions, Cousins scored on one on one moves against Oglivy, forcing Vandy out of their man defense into a zone defense. These two heavy weights stood toe to toe for the first segment, as Kentucky eased out to an early 6 point lead, 14-8, but a three pointer by Vandy coupled with a foul on Cousins after the shot allowed Vandy to have a shot to tie the score, but the bonus shot missed, and Wall converted with a bucket at the other end for a 5 point UK lead, 16-11 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:56 to play in the first half.

The early pace of this game is very fast, with UK getting 11 possessions, and Vandy 12 with their bonus possession noted above. Each team has made 2 turnovers, and each team grabbed one offensive rebound, producing 3 second chance points for UK for none by Vandy. In the abbreviated second segment, the pace slowed considerably from the torrid pace of the first 5 minutes, and Kentucky scored 7 points on their three possessions while Vandy did not manage a single point, extending Kentucky's lead to 12 points, 23-11 at the under 12 TV timeout, and Orton will be shooting a one plus from the line when play resumes.

In the first 8 minutes, Kentucky has not only managed to limit a powerful Vandy offense to only 11 points on 15 possessions [0.733 ppp], the Cats have been outstanding, primarily on Cousin's shoulders for an efficiency of 1.643 ppp. In the third segment, Kentucky begins to get into some foul trouble with Cousins and Orton picking up their second fouls and going to the bench. Vandy also used the segment to stop the UK offensive onslaught by scoring 12 points in the segment, but the Cats managed 14 point to ease the lead out to 14 points, 37-23 at the under 8 TV timeout. Kentucky will have possession when play resumes.

In the fourth segment, the Cats continue to expand their lead, now standing at 19 points, 46-27 at the under 4 TV timeout. Vandy will have possession when play resumes. In the final segment, the officials continue to use their whistles as if there will be no tomorrow, and Vandy outscored the Cats 7-3 to trim the lead to 15 points, 49-34 at the half.

The pace is about 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 possessions for VANDERBILT. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 21-12 in total rebounds and 6-2 on the offensive glass. Kentucky used its offensive rebounding advantage to build a 9-0 advantage on second chance points. .

In first half, UK had 36 possessions and VANDERBILT had 36. The Cats grabbed a good 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and VANDERBILT grabbed an anemic 11.8% of their misses. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.944 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 2 second chance possession. UK had 1.111 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 8 turnovers in the first half, 22.2% of their possessions, and VANDY committed 6 turnovers, 16.7% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 12-21 attempts [57.1%] and VANDERBILT made 10-15 [66.7%]. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half, hitting 15 of 25 attempts [60.0%] overall, and 7-12 [58.3%] shooting from long range For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was fair 6-16 [37.5%], and VANDERBILT was shot even better from beyond the arc, 4-9 [44.4%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 91 st point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 42 points, while VANDERBILT needs 57 points. Neither team reached the MAGIC NUMBER in this game, and Kentucky maintained their double digit lead throughout the second half to hand Vanderbilt its first SEC loss of the 2009-2010 season, 85-72, as the Cats more to 20-1; 5-1 and into a first place tie for the SEC lead with this Vanderbilt team.

Second Half Summary:

In the opening segment of the second half, Vandy used 4-6 shooting and 3-3 from the line to trim Kentucky's lead to 14 points, 59-45 at the under 16 TV timeout with 15:07 to play in the game. Vandy will have possession when play resumes. In the second segment, Vandy trimmed the lead to 12 points, 59-47, but Kentucky responded with a 7 point run to reestablish their biggest lead of the game, 19 points, 66-47. Vandy stopped the UK run with a three pointer, and then called a timeout with about 12:26 to play in the game, and Kentucky leading 66-50.

Out of the timeout, Liggins makes a 3 pointer to put the lead back out to 19 points, and following a Vandy miss, they foul Cousins at the under 12 TV timeout and the Cats leading 69-50 and in possession of the basketball. In a bizarre third segment, marked by a phantom technical foul on the Vandy bench, a similar technical foul on Cousins, and a double foul, fouling out Orton and a Vandy big man, Vandy trimmed the lead to 13 points, 71-58, before a pair of Wall free throws extended the lead back to 15 points at the under 8 TV timeout. When play resumes, Vandy will be shooting a pair of free throws.

Out of the timeout, Vandy converted on both free throws, and following another Kentucky turnover, Vandy scored on a fast break to trim the lead to 11 points, the closest they have been since early in the game, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 7:35 to play. In the 4 th segment, the Cats hold off the Vandy surge with a pair of three pointers by Dodson, each coming after Kentucky maintained their possessions with offensive rebounds to stretch the lead back to 15 points, 79-64 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the final segment and the Cats won 85-72.

UK scored its 85 points in a total of 70 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.214 ppp. VANDERBILT scored its 72 points on a total of 72 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 41-22, and the Cats won the offensive glass 18-3. Kentucky converted their 18 second chances into 20 points while VANDERBILT converted its 3 second chances into 2 points.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.972 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.929 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.111ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed strong 48.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert an anemic 11.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot below average from the line, making 25-39 [64.1%]. VANDERBILT made 23-31 [74.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-54 overall [44.4%] including a strong 12-23 from long range [52.2%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 5-15 [33.3%] and VANDERBILT shot the ball very well from inside the arc, hitting 17-31 [54.8%].

The Cats committed 17 turnovers for the game which is 24.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 15 VANDERBILT turnovers, representing 20.8% of the VANDERBILT possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 9 point Cat win [80-71], and the Cats won by 13 points, 85-72, which was consistent with the predicted score. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.11 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.21 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.99 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.00 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 for VANDERBILT, and the actual pace was 70 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for VANDERBILT.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night against Mississippi at Rupp Arena for the seventh SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 22 nd regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

24
Cats Fall At South Carolina; Go 19-1; 4-1