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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

26
Cats Host #20 Mississippi

As a result of the Cats' loss on the road to South Carolina, a sweep of Vanderbilt and holding serve at Rupp Arena became essential elements for the Cats to win the SEC regular season in 2010. On Saturday, the Cats took care of the first half of their necessary Vanderbilt sweep with a 13 point home court win. It is a fact that the Cats emerged from the starting blocks into a full sprint to build an early double digit lead, and it is a fact that Vanderbilt never found a way to cut that lead back into single digits, once UK established it. It is also a fact that for about 30 minutes of the game, the lead fluctuated between 11 and 19 points.

However, the Cats established their biggest lead of the game in the first half, and they were never able to extend that 19 point lead to 20 points or more despite multiple opportunities to do just that in each half. The first half against Vanderbilt was impressive at the offensive end of the floor, 49 points in 36 possessions [1.361 ppp] on offense. However, defensively the Cats allowed Vanderbilt to score 34 points on 36 possessions [0.944 ppp] which is well above UK's season average defensive efficiency.

Nevertheless, a 15 point lead at the half against a ranked opponent, on the strength of that impressive offensive outburst was impressive. The second half, however, had a different ring to it at both ends of the court. This is why Kentucky could not put this Vanderbilt team away earlier, and allowed Vanderbilt to flirt with getting back into the game with several opportunities to cut the deficit back into single digits. In that second half, the Cats managed to score 36 points on 34 possessions, less than their season average and considerably less than the first half performance in this game. All while allowing Vanderbilt to score 38 points on 36 possessions, again much worse defensively than the season average and worse that a ho hum first half in this game.

The result was the 13 point, 85-72 final score. However, with a consistent effort throughout the full 40 minutes, or with a defensive effort on par with the offensive effort, the Cats could have put Vanderbilt away before halftime, and never let them off the mat.

Yes, the Cats did manage to hand Vanderbilt their first SEC loss of this season, and in so doing pull themselves into a “tie” with Vanderbilt for the lead in the SEC. That coupled with recent losses by SEC West leaders Mississippi and Mississippi State to Arkansas this past week propel UK and Vanderbilt into the front seat of the SEC 2010 Express, but Vanderbilt remains behind the wheel despite UK's win on Saturday by virtue of its road wins at USC and Tennessee, and UK's road loss at USC with trips to Vanderbilt and Tennessee yet to come.

Kentucky must not only hold serve the rest of the year at Rupp, it must beat Mississippi in Nashville later this month to secure the SEC 2010 Championship.

On Tuesday night, the Cats must take their next step toward that SEC Championship when they host Mississippi.

Mississippi will bring an 16-5; 4-3 record into this game. The Rebels finished their nonconference schedule 12-2 with losses to Villanova [#13] by 12 on a Neutral court, and at West Virginia [#6] by 10. However, Mississippi opened play in the SEC this year with a home loss to arch rival Mississippi State [#37] by 5, and lost at Tennessee [#25] by 2 in overtime. While their home loss to Miss. St. certainly put them behind the 8 ball after just one game, their loss at Tennessee was not fatal. Sunday, the Rebels lost to Arkansas at home by 7 points, essentially taking themselves out of any serious position to win the SEC regular season championship this season without running the table from this point forward.

Mississippi has averaged 80.9 ppg on 72.5 possessions per game, 1.116 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.3 ppg on 72.1 possessions, 0.961 ppp. Mississippi's turnover rate through 19 games is 17.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, Mississippi has grabbed a decent 35.4% of their own misses but OLE MISS has allowed their opponents to get 35.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.2 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.139 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.0 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.921 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.4% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for Mississippi and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 12-point win for the Cats, 83-71 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for Mississippi. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.15 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.98 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 78 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari makes a rare change to the starting lineup, coming off the first loss of the year: Wall, Dodson, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats hit 3 of their first 4 shots and sprint out to a 7-0 lead prompting a quick Mississippi timeout with 18:15 to play in the first half. Out of the timeout, Kentucky extended their early lead to 10 points, 12-2, but Ole Miss closed the extended opening segment with the final 7 points to close the gap to 3 points, 12-9 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:30 to play. After the timeout, the Cats respond to Ole Miss' run with an 8 point run of their own to stetch the lead back into double digits, 11 points 20-9, prompting the second Ole Miss timeout of the game with 12:29 to play in the first half.

However, the timeout did not solve the Rebels' problem as the Cats scored the next 4 points to take a 15 point lead, 24-9 at the under 12 TV timeout and Wall will be on the line to complete the old fashioned three point play when play resumes. The early pace is very fast, a mid 80s pace through the first 8 minutes. The Cats extended the lead to 27-9 before Mississippi could stop the run with an old fashioned three point play with 10:32 to play in the first half. This time out was more effective for Mississippi, and they used it to begin an 11-2 run of their own to trim an 18 point lead back to 9 points, 29-20 at the under 8 TV timeout. After the timeout, the Cats responded in this game of runs with a 7-3 answer to the call to extend the lead back to 13 points, 36-23, but Ole Miss continues to fight back, trimming the lead to only 7 points, 36-29 at the under 4 TV timeout. Patterson will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

The pace continues in the low to mid 80s range through 16 minutes. The Cats have scored their 36 points on 33 possessions, 1.091 ppp while Ole Miss has managed to score its 29 points on 34 possessions, 0.853 ppp. The story of this first half is that Kentucky has committed 11 turnover to Ole Miss' 7, negating a strong rebounding and good shooting. The teams played out the rest of the first half with Mississippi State cutting the one time 18 point lead to only 3 points, 40-37 before Kentucky closed the scoring with the last 6 points to take a 9 point lead, 46-37 to the locker room at the half.

The pace is about 82 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for MISSISSIPPI. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 25-18 in total rebounds and 10-8 on the offensive glass. However, despite the offensive rebounding advantage, Ole Miss holds the edge in second chance points, 8-7. .

In first half, UK had 41 possessions and MISSISSIPPI had 41. The Cats grabbed a powerful 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and MISSISSIPPI grabbed a strong 34.8% of their misses. MISSISSIPPI had an offensive efficiency of 0.707 ppp on its 41 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 8 second chance possession. UK had 0.951 ppp on its 41 first chance possessions and 0.700 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, 26.8% of their possessions, and OLE MISS committed 9 turnovers, 22.0% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 10-13 attempts [76.9%] and MISSISSIPPI made 5-6 [83.3%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly throughout the first half, hitting 16 of 35 attempts [45.7%] overall, and 4-10 [40.0%] shooting from long range For MISSISSIPPI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was strong, 13-28 [46.4%], but MISSISSIPPI shot poorly from beyond the arc, 2-9 [22.2%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 88 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 42 points, while MISSISSIPPI needs 51 points. Neither team reached the MAGIC NUMBER in this game, and Kentucky won 85-75, to hand Mississippi its fourth SEC loss of the 2009-2010 season, as the Cats more to 21-1; 6-1 and continue to set the pace for Vanderbilt and the rest of the league.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half with the back door lob to Wall, and outscore the Rebels 10-4 in the first 2 ½ minutes, prompting a quick Mississippi timeout with the score 56-41. Out of the timeout, Mississippi out scores UK 9-2 to trim the lead back to single digits at 58-49 prompting a Kentucky timeout with exactly 16:00 to play in the game.

It appears that neither team wants to play defense in the second half, as Ole Miss has allowed Kentucky to score 14 points on 10 possessions and Kentucky has allowed the Rebels to score 15 points on just 9 possessions. The Rebels again trimmed the lead to only 3 points, 60-57, but the Cats responded again by closing the second segment with the last 5 points to stretch the lead back to 8 points, 65-57 at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:11 to play in the game.

Out of the timeout, Patrick Patterson goes to war with a three pointer and an old fashioned three point play to extend the lead out to 12 points. Over the remained of the protracted third segment, the teams traded baskets and the Cats maintained that 12 point lead, 75-63 at the under 8 TV timeout with 5:57 to play in the game. The Cats extend the lead to 14 points, 82-68 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:51 to play in the game. The teams played out the final 3 minutes as the Cats secured their 21 st win of the season, 85-75 and move to 6-1 in the SEC.

UK scored its 85 points in a total of 72 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.181 ppp. MISSISSIPPI scored its 75 points on a total of 72 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.042 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 38-33, but the Cats lost the offensive glass 14-15. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 12 points while MISSISSIPPI converted its 15 second chances into 18 points.

MISSISSIPPI had an offensive efficiency of 0.792 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 1.014 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed strong 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI was able to convert 38.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot above average from the line, making 14-19 [73.7%]. MISSISSIPPI made 9-13 [69.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-62 overall [50.0%] including a strong 9-19 from long range [47.4%]. For MISSISSIPPI, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 8-20 [40.0%] and MISSISSIPPI shot the ball very well from inside the arc, hitting 21-46 [45.7%].

The Cats committed 17 turnovers for the game which is 23.6% of possessions. The Cats forced 15 MISSISSIPPI turnovers, representing 20.8% of the MISSISSIPPI possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 12 point Cat win [83-71], and the Cats won by 10 points, 85-75, which was consistent with the predicted score. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.15 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.18 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.98 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.04 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 for MISSISSIPPI, and the actual pace was 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for MISSISSIPPI.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at LSU for the eighth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 23 rd regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

25
Cats Beat Vanderbilt; Go 20-1; 5-1