07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

27
Cats Return To SEC Road at LSU

In the wake of their loss to South Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats have responded with back to back double digit wins over Vanderbilt and Mississippi at Rupp Arena. Based on their bodies of work, MISSISSIPPI and Vanderbilt should both receive at large bids to March Madness in about 5 weeks reinforcing a conclusion that the Cats' loss was an anomaly in an outstanding season.

While double digit wins over prominent conference opponents is always nice, the fact remains that the Cats established superiority early in both games, only to allow each of them to hang around within striking distance throughout the second halves of these games. This is a tendency that has manifested many times this season, and a tendency that this team really needs to eliminate.

Next up for the Cats will be LSU at the Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge. The Maravich Assembly Center bears the name of one of LSU's all time great players, Pistol Pete Maravich, who played in the 1968, 69, and 70 seasons and scored over 3,600 total points and averaged over 44 points per game during his 3 year collegiate career. However, as prolific a scorer as Pistol Pete was, he never played on an LSU team that could beat his Kentucky counterparts, led by Dan Issel, Mike Casey, and Mike Pratt.

Pistol Pete is not the only great LSU player to wage battle on the hardwood against the Wildcats. In the early 1950s, LSU featured Bob Pettit. In the early 1970s [1970], it was Pistol Pete. Then, in the early 90s, LSU featured Shaquille O'Neal. This season, 2010, the LSU Tigers feature Tasmin Mitchell. Just like prior episodes in this rivalry, Tasmin Mitchell is no more likely, and perhaps less likely, to leave his encounter with Kentucky with a win.

Every 20 years more or less for LSU, they seem to present an outstanding talent. However, over the years, even these special players have not enjoyed great, sustained success against their Wildcat counterparts. This time around, the Cats will put their #3 national ranking on the line and match that against LSU's rapidly disappearing pride. On Thursday night, following LSU's 5 point loss to Tennessee in Baton Rouge, the LSU coaches and players admitted that despite “only” losing to Tennessee by 5 points, LSU was 0-8 in SEC play and 9-13 overall, saying “it is what it is.” Coming close provides little to no solace under the circumstances of this LSU season.

Kentucky on the other hand has licked the wounds left by the South Carolina upset 10 days ago, and brings a 21-1 record into this game, including a 6-1 SEC record. This game at the Maravich Assembly Center provides the Cats with their best opportunity among their remaining road games to get a treasured SEC road win. For that reason, this trip to LSU is really in the must win category for the Cats.

LSU will bring an 9-13; 0-8 record into this game. The Tigers finished their nonconference schedule 9-5 with losses to UConn [#48] by 26 points and Arizona State [#25] by 19 on a Neutral court, at Xavier [#21] by 24 points and at Washington State [#107] by 1 point in overtime, and at home to Utah [#118] by 2 points. LSU's most impressive win to date has been by 11 points over Indiana State [#154].

LSU has averaged 63.1 ppg on 64.5 possessions per game, 0.977 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.8 ppg on 64.7 possessions, 1.017 ppp. LSU's turnover rate through 22 games is 19.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 18.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, LSU has grabbed a decent 36.5% of their own misses but LSU has allowed their opponents to get 32.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.4 ppg on 72.3 possessions per game, 1.139 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.4 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.926 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 43.5% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.7% of their missed shots.

ased on this data for LSU and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 11-point win for the Cats, 77-66 in a game that will be played at a pace about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for LSU. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.13 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.97 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Dodson, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats open this game missing their first 6 shots, and only 1 of 2 free throws as LSU moves out to an early 6-1 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. The pace in this first segment is very fast, given that LSU averages only 64 possessions per game, in the first 4 minutes of this game, both teams had 9 possessions. In the second segment, the Cats made 3 of 4 shots and all 3 free throws while limiting LSU to 2 points to take their first lead of the day, 10-8 at the under 12 TV timeout. In addition to poor shooting in the early 8 minutes, the Cats have committed 5 turnovers to 4 for LSU and have been out rebounded 12-8 total, and 5-0 on the offensive glass. However, LSU has not converted a single second chance into points yet.

In the third segment, the Cats began to convert missed shots into points with 2 offensive rebounds and 4 second chance points to extend their lead to 18-10 prompting a LSU timeout with 8:40 to play. Out of the timeout, a Bledsoe steal extended the lead to 10 points, 20-10 at the under 8 TV timeout, and the Cats will have possession when play resumes. In the 4 th segment, the Cats continued their onslaught upon the Tigers, extending their lead to 24 points, 34-10 finishing off a 22-0 run before a Mitchell jump shot ended the run at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:21 to play in the first half. Cousins will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the final segment, the Cats extended their lead to 30 points, 42-12, and a basket just before the half trimmed the lead back to 28 points, 42-14 at the hlf.

The pace is about 72 possessions for the Cats and 74 possessions for LSU. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 28-15 in total rebounds and 8-6 on the offensive glass producing a huge 13-1 edge in second chance points.

In first half, UK had 36 possessions and LSU had 37. The Cats grabbed a powerful 47.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and LSU grabbed a weak 23.1% of their misses. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.351 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.167 ppp for its 1 second chance possession. UK had 0.806 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.625 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 8 turnovers in the first half, 22.2% of their possessions, and LSU committed 10 turnovers, 27.0% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 9-14 attempts [64.3%] and LSU made 1-2 [50.0%]. The Cats shot the ball well after a slow start in the first half, hitting 16 of 30 attempts [53.3%] overall, and 1-3 [33.3%] shooting from long range For LSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was weak, 5-20 [25.0%], and LSU shot poorly from beyond the arc, 1-12 [8.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 71 st point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 29 points, while LSU needs 57 points. Kentucky scored its 71 st point on a Patterson three pointer with 7:20 to play in the game and the Cats leading 71-43. The teams played out the final 7:20 as Kentucky secured its 3 rd SEC road win of the season and handed LSU ninth SEC loss in 9 tries of the 2009-2010 season. The Cats move to 22-1; 7-1 and continue to set the pace for Vanderbilt and the rest of the league.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins in much the same way that the first half began, with LSU outscoring the Cats 9-3 and the Cats missing nearly every shot they attempted. A late basket by Dodson provided the Cats with a 26 point lead, 49-23 at the under 16 TV timeout. Dodson will be shooting a free throw when play resumes for an old fashioned three point play. In the second segment, the Cats and Tigers trader baskets, and the Cats maintained a 27 point lead, 57-30 at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, the teams began to simply race up and down the floor, as the Cats scored 11 more points on 8 possessions and LSU scored10 more points on 8 possessions. Neither team is playing any serious defense during this segment of the game, and the Cats lead 68-40 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:57 to play in the game. The final score is 81-55. The Cats secured their 22 nd win of the season, and move to 7-1 in the SEC.

UK scored its 81 points in a total of 74 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.095 ppp. LSU scored its 55 points on a total of 76 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.724 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 53-31, and the Cats won the offensive glass 18-10. Kentucky converted their 18 second chances into 17 points while LSU converted its 10 second chances into 2 points.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.697 ppp on its 76 first chance possessions and 0.200 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 0.865 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.944 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed strong 46.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to convert 22.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot about average from the line, making 16-23 [69.6%]. LSU made 9-13 [69.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-66 overall [45.5%] including a weak 5-17 from long range [28.4%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 4-22 [18.2%] and LSU shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 17-44 [38.6%].

The Cats committed 16 turnovers for the game which is 21.6% of possessions. The Cats forced 14 LSU turnovers, representing 18.4% of the LSU possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 11 point Cat win [77-66], and the Cats won by 26 points, 81-55, which is a considerably greater margin than predicted. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.13 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.10 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.94 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.72 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 68 possessions for the Cats and 68 for LSU, and the actual pace was 74 possessions for Kentucky and 76 possessions for LSU.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night against Alabama at Rupp Arena for the ninth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 24 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

26
Cats Beat Mississipi; Go 21-1; 6-1