07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

28
Cats Return To Rupp And Entertain Alabama

On Saturday, the Cats took care of business at LSU while Vanderbilt fell prey to some angry Bulldogs in Athens, Georgia. That combination of outcomes has propelled Kentucky into sole possession of first place in the SEC with a 7-1 record at the halfway point. Vanderbilt and Tennessee now have 2 losses in the East, and no one in the West has fewer than 3 losses [Arkansas]. Every UK fan has known since August that the stretch drive in the SEC would provide this team its more persistent and challenging series of games that will include road trips to Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Georgia [Has Beaten Tennessee and Vanderbilt in Athens so far], as well as a home game against a Tennessee team that continues to hang around despite its well publicized player personnel problems.

It is hard to believe that the 2009-10 season is so near its ending; it seems as if this season has barely begun. But, that does prove the old adage that time flies when one is having fun, and 2009-10 has certainly been more fun than a barrel of monkeys. Now, the time has arrived for this team to put on its Sunday best, and make a huge statement to the rest of the NCAA basketball world over the next 4 weeks. It begins tonight with Alabama at Rupp. Thereafter, it will be the murderers row of games that have been identified and discussed in these writings all season long: Tennessee, at Miss. St., at Vandy, South Carolina at Rupp [set the record straight time], at Tennessee, and at Georgia, before closing out the season against Florida at Rupp.

That six game sequence, Tennessee through the game at Georgia, will be this season's biggest challenge to date. IF!!!!! If the Cats take care of business on those huge road games, then the season finale against Florida will have no meaning or significance for the Cats other than the burning desire and need to preserve a perfect Rupp record for the season, and send off this team's senior class with a win. Isn't it great to be a member of the Big Blue Nation in 2010?

Next up for the Cats will be ALABAMA at Rupp.

ALABAMA will bring an 13-10; 3-6 record into this game. The Tide finished their nonconference schedule 10-4 with losses to Cornell [#52] by 4 points and Purdue [#10] by 8, both at home, to Kansas State [#9] by 13 at a “semi-home” court, and to Florida State [#22] by 9 on a Neutral court. ALABAMA's most impressive win to date has been by 3 points over Baylor [#16] on a neutral court.

ALABAMA has averaged 68.2 ppg on 65.5 possessions per game, 1.040 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 62.9 ppg on 65.0 possessions, 0.967 ppp. ALABAMA's turnover rate through 23 games is 19.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, ALABAMA has grabbed an average 33.9% of their own misses but ALABAMA has allowed their opponents to get 35.3% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 82.3 ppg on 72.5 possessions per game, 1.136 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.9 ppg on 71.9 possessions, 0.917 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 14 games is 21.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.3% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for ALABAMA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 20-point win for the Cats, 81-61 in a game that will be played at a pace about 69 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for ALABAMA. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.17 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.88 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Dodson, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

Alabama opens the game hitting 5 of their first 7 shots and Kentucky opens cold with 2 early turnvovers and falls behind 11-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Catas still shot the ball poorly, but Alabama's shooting cooled considerably as the Cats trimmed the margin to 2 points, 13-11 at the under 12 TV timeout and Liggins will be shooting one + free throws when play resumes with an opportunity to bring the Cats back to an even score against Alabama for the first time since the opening possession of the game.

In the third segment, the Cats moved into their first lead of the game, 17-13 before Alabama ended a 10 point Kentucky run and trimmed the UK lead to 2 points, 17-15 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, ‘Bama caught up at 17-17, but the Cats finished the segment with a 6-2 mini-run for a 23-19 lead at the under 4 TV timeout and John Wall will be shooting a free throw when play resumes to complete the old fashioned 3 point play. Wall converted, and the Cates outscored Alabama 8-5 in the final segment to take a 7 point, 31-24 lead at the half. After opening very slowly, and falling behind 9-2 in the first 3 minutes, the Cats out scored Alabama 29-16 over the last 17 minutes of the first half.

The pace is about 70 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for ALABAMA. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 24-14 in total rebounds and 7-3 on the offensive glass, but Alabama holds the advantage on second chance points, 5-2.

In first half, UK had 35 possessions and ALABAMA had 35. The Cats grabbed a fair 38.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and ALABAMA grabbed a weak 15.0% of their misses. ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.543 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp for its 3 second chance possession. UK had 0.829 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.286 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, 31.4% of their possessions, and ALABAMA committed 7 turnovers, 20.0% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7-10 attempts [70.0%] and ALABAMA did not have a single free throw attempt in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 11 of 27 attempts [40.7%] overall, and 2-11 [18.2%] shooting from long range For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was weak, 9-25 [36.0%], and ALABAMA shot well from beyond the arc, 2-6 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 59 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 28 points, while ALABAMA needs 35 points. Kentucky scored its 59 th point on a dunk by Orton with 2:30 to play and the Cats leading 60-51. The teams played out the final 2:30 as Kentucky secured its 8 th SEC win of the season 66-55 to move to 23-1; 8-1 and continue to set the pace for Vanderbilt and the rest of the league.

Second Half Summary:

Alabama opens the second half with a basket to trim the lead back to 5 points, but the Cats outscore the Crimson Tide 8-2 over the balance of the segment to extend their lead into double digits for the first time in this game, 11 points, 39-28 at the under 16 TV timeout and the Cats will have the ball when play resumes. After establishing a 14 point lead on two occasions in the prolonged third segment, the Cats allowed Alabama to trim the lead back to single digits, 9 points, 48-39 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:05 to play in the game. Cousins will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the short third segment, Alabama outscored the Cats 6-3 to trim the one time 14 point lead to only 5 points, 51-45 at the under 8 TV timeout. Orton will be shooting free throws for the Cats when play resumes. In the 4 th segment, the Cats eased back out to a 9 point lead, 58-49 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the final 4 minutes as the Cats held on for their 23 rd win against only 1 defeat, 66-55. The Cats secured their 23 rd win of the season, and move to 8-1 in the SEC.

UK scored its 66 points in a total of 65 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.015 ppp. ALABAMA scored its 55 points on a total of 66 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.833 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 42-35, but the Cats lost the offensive glass 13-14. Kentucky converted their 13 second chances into 10 points while ALABAMA converted its 14 second chances into 15 points.

ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.606 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.071 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had 0.862 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.769 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed good 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA was able to convert 32.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 19-31 [61.3%]. ALABAMA made 9-10 [90.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-48 overall [45.8%] including a weak 3-16 from long range [18.8%]. For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 4-14 [28.6%] and ALABAMA shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 17-49 [34.7%].

The Cats committed 16 turnovers for the game which is 24.6% of possessions. The Cats forced 12 ALABAMA turnovers, representing 18.2% of the ALABAMA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 20 point Cat win [81-61], and the Cats won by 11 points, 66-55. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.17 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.02 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.88 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.83 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 69 for ALABAMA, and the actual pace was 65 possessions for Kentucky and 66 possessions for ALABAMA.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday night against Tennessee at Rupp Arena for the tenth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 25 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

27
Cats Beat LSU; Go 22-1; 7-1