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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

29
Cats Host Game Day and Tennessee

No SEC rivalry has endured through all the decades of my fandome like the Kentucky-Tennessee match ups. From Widby to the Ernie-Bernie show to Lofton; from Mears to Pearle. Tennessee has always provided distractions from the game too. From Mears' orange jacket and his circus sideshow act Stu Aberdeen, to unicycling players spinning orange and white basketballs on their fingers, to Pearle's resurrection of that old orange jacket, distractions have littered this series.

The pros and cons associated with this series have been evident to Wildcat fans for decades, but the Volunteers have clarified the pros and cons this year like none other before.

For this old fan, no other SEC series brings the visceral emotions to the surface any stronger that UK v UT; Blue v Orange; Pros v Cons!!!!!

Image Courtesy of Jared Bonshire, Kentucky Ink

This is it!!!! And ESPN brings it to the world via their College Game Day programming on Saturday.

TENNESSEE will bring an 18-5; 6-3 record into this game. However, to understand the Tennessee team that will enter Rupp on Saturday, one must examine the Tennessee record as 2 seasons within one. Their first season, of 12 games, produced a 10-2 record with losses to Purdue by 1 point [#6] on a neutral court and at Southern California [#61] by 22. Then, the Volunteer nation learned once again that some of their players were more thug and criminal than college students, and Tennessee lost the services of 4 of their top 7 players for several games, and 2 of their top 5 players permanently.

Since that fateful event on New Year's Day, Tennessee has played 11 games, losing 3 times at Georgia [#88] by 15, at Vanderbilt [#20] by 19, and to Vanderbilt at home by 9. With all due respect, the Volunteers [literally in this case because they had to use several non-scholarship players] beat Kansas [#1] by 8 points in their second game after the suspensions. However, since that huge win, this Tennessee team has been on a slide that has seen Tennessee slip by a weak LSU team by only 5 points, beat Alabama by only 7 points, Florida by only 1 point in Knoxville.

Since revealing the cons of UT Basketball, the Volunteers have slowed the pace of games, experienced some slippage at the offensive end, and experience great slippage on the defensive end. The current UT team does not force nearly as many opponent turnovers, and is not able to rebound at either end of the floor as well as they had done prior to the exposure of all the Cons.

For the entire season [last 12 games], TENNESSEE has averaged 76.7 ppg [71.6 ppg] on 72.2 possessions per game [69], 1.063 points per possession [1.037 ppp], and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.0 ppg [67.2 ppg] on 72.3 possessions [69], 0.900 ppp [0.964 ppp]. TENNESSEE's turnover rate through 23 games is 17.7% [17.4%] while their opponents have committed turnovers on 24.8% [21.8%] of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an average 33.5% [32.5%] of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 31.0

Kentucky has averaged 81.6 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.130 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.914 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 24 games is 21.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.4% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.3% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for TENNESSEE'S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 10-point win for the Cats, 77-67 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for TENNESSEE. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.07 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.93 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 73 points. If only the last 11 games played by UT are considered, the predicted margin increases to about 12 points.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Dodson, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson. Only one of these starters has ever encountered a UK-UT war first hand. Patterson's Kentucky teams have won 3 of 4 against the Volunteers in his first 2 years, and Patterson did not participate in the only loss in his freshman year, following his season ending injury.

The game opens with great emotion and some sloppy play at both ends of the court as the Cats commit 2 early turnovers, and UT commits 3 of their own. However, the Cats managed to make 3 of 7 shots to UT's 1-6 shooting to ease out to an early 3 point lead, 6-3 at the under 16 TV timeout. Each team grabbed one offensive board, but neither team converted their second chance into points. Kentucky came out of the time out with a missed shot and turnover, and UT used a second chance and run out basket to take their first lead of the game, 7-6, after the Cats had opened the scoring with the first 6 points. Over the balance of the second segment, Tennessee advanced their lead to 12-7 before a three pointer by Liggins stopped a long Kentucky field goal drought to trim UT's lead back to 2 points, 12-10, at the under 12 TV timeout. Tennessee will have the ball when play resumes.

In the first 8 minutes, both teams have been turning the ball over 4 times, and shooting poorly. The difference is that UT made both free throws to UK's 1-2 and UT's 2-4 three point shooting to UK's 1-4 three point shooting. Both teams have 2 offensive boards, but UT has 2 second chance points, to none for the Cats. When play resumed, UT scored first to ease back to a 4 point lead, 14-10, but the Cats then scored the next 10 points to regain the lead at 6 points, 20-14 at the under 8 TV timeout, and the Cats will have the ball when play resumes. While early shooting percentages for both teams were in the low 30% range, after 12 minutes, the Cats have improved to 40% while UT has declined to only 26%.

In the 4 th segment, the Cats move out to their biggest lead of the game, 8 points, 24-16, but UT responds with a 7-2 run of their own over the rest of the segment to close the lead to only 3 points, 26-23 at the under 4 TV timeout. When play resumes, the Cats will have the ball. UT catches back up at 26-26, and the teams play the last 3 minutes with few points, and Kentucky taking a slim 1 point lead, 30-29 to the locker room at the half.

The pace is about 70 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for TENNESSEE. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 20-18 in total rebounds and 7-6 on the offensive glass, and Kentucky holds the advantage on second chance points, 8-5.

In first half, UK had 35 possessions and TENNESSEE had 35. The Cats grabbed a fair 36.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and TENNESSEE grabbed an average 31.6% of their misses. TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.686 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.629 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 9 turnovers in the first half, 25.7% of their possessions, and TENNESSEE committed 8 turnovers, 22.9% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 8-10 attempts [80.0%] and TENNESSEE made 5-8 free throws [62.5%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 10 of 28 attempts [35.7%] overall, and 2-9 [22.2%] shooting from long range For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was weak, 6-17 [35.3%], and TENNESSEE shot well from beyond the arc, 4-12 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while TENNESSEE needs 31 points. Kentucky scored its 60 th point on a layup by Bledsoe with 6:47 to play and the Cats leading 60-52. The teams played out the final 6:47 as Kentucky secured its 9 th SEC win of the season 73-62 to move to 24-1; 9-1 and continue to set the pace for Vanderbilt and the rest of the league.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second have with 3 of 7 shooting to outscore UT 8-7 in the opening segment and ease their lead out to a fragile 2 points, 38-36 at the under 16 TV timeout and UT will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. In a prolonged second segment, Tennessee moved into the lead, by 4 points, but the Cats fought back into a one point lead, and the teams exchanged baskets and the fragile 1 point lead to the under 12 TV timeout and UT leading 49-48 with 10:47 to play in the game, and Kentucky with possession.

In the third segment, the teams again traded leads until the Cats scored the last 6 points of the segment to move back up by 4 points, 56-52 at the under 8 TV timeout and Kentucky will have the ball when play resumes. Eric Bledsoe's recent shooting slump ended in a sequence that saw him make 8 straight points to extend UK's lead to 10 points 66-56 with about 5 minutes to play. In that sequence, Bledsoe hit back to back three pointers. On the ensuing UT possession, Liggins stole the ball and called a timeout from the floor to preserve the possession for the Cats, holding that same 10 point lead with 4:30 to play in the game.

Bledsoe extends his personal run to 10 points with a pair of free throws, and gives the Cats their largest lead of the game, 12 points, 68-56 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams play out the final segment and the Cats win 73-62.

UK scored its 73 points in a total of 69 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.058 ppp. TENNESSEE scored its 62 points on a total of 70 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.886 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 39-32, and the Cats won the offensive glass 15-13. Kentucky converted their 15 second chances into 13 points while TENNESSEE converted its 13 second chances into 12 points.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.714 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 0.923 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had 0.870 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.867 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a powerful 44.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to convert 35.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 18-30 [60.0%]. TENNESSEE made 10-13 [76.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-54 overall [44.4%] including a weak 7-19 from long range [36.8%]. For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 6-23 [26.1%] and TENNESSEE shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 17-37 [45.9%].

The Cats committed 15 turnovers for the game which is 21.7% of possessions. The Cats forced 17 TENNESSEE turnovers, representing 24.3% of the TENNESSEE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 10 point Cat win [77-67], and the Cats won by 12 points, 73-62. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.07 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.06 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.93 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.89 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 for TENNESSEE, and the actual pace was 69 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for TENNESSEE.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night at Mississippi State for the eleventh SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 26 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

28
Cats Beat Alabama; Go 23-1; 8-1

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