07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

30
Cats Face Toughest Test So Far at Mississippi State

So far this season, the Kentucky Wildcats have played 4 games on the road, winning 3 times. So far this season, the Cats have played back to back road games one time, winning both ends of that trip. However, on Tuesday night and Saturday afternoon this Kentucky team will play back to back road games at Mississippi State and then Vanderbilt, a pair of the toughest road venues in the SEC this season. Mississippi State is currently tied at the top of the SEC West, and Vanderbilt is the only legitimate challenger still standing with a chance to overtake Kentucky in the SEC East.

If UK can sweep these two games, the Cats will have a commanding lead in the SEC with only 4 games to play. If they split, it depends on which of the two the Cats win and lose because a loss to Vanderbilt in Nashville will throw the SEC East race into a scramble that the various and sundry SEC tie breakers would decide at the end of the day, bMSU a loss at Mississippi State would not affect the UK SEC Championship situation, so long as the Cats leave Nashville with the sweep over Vanderbilt this season.

MISSISSIPPI STATE will bring an 18-7; 6-4 record into this game. For the entire season, MISSISSIPPI STATE has averaged 73.3 ppg on 69.8 possessions per game, 1.050 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 62.6 ppg on 69.3 possessions, 0.903 ppp. MISSISSIPPI STATE's turnover rate through 25 games is 19.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 16.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, MISSISSIPPI STATE has grabbed an average 32.0% of their own misses but MISSISSIPPI STATE has allowed their opponents to get only 29.0% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 81.3 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.128 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.912 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 25 games is 21.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.4% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 43.4% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.5% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for MISSISSIPPI STATE'S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a “pick ‘em” game in the most classic sense, 70-70 in a game that will be played at a pace about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 71 possessions for MISSISSIPPI STATE. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.99 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.99 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 70 points. However, given the demonstrated ability of this team to respond to the challenges in marquee games, I give the edge to the Cats, by 1 point, 71-70.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Dodson, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

The game opens with intense emotions and poor shooting by both teams, as they reaced up and down the court to a 4-4 tie in the opening segment at the under 16 TV timeout. In that segment, the Cats committed 2 turnovers to MSU's 1, but the Cats got 2 offensive boards to none for MSU, producing 2 second chance points. The early pace is in the upper 70s to 80 range. In the second segment, MSU drew first blood, and after the Cats ran off 6 straight to take their first lead of the game at 10-6, MSU ended the segment with back to back 3 pointers to regain the lead, 12-10 at the under 12 TV timeout. Miller will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the third segment, the teams traded baskets, but the segment ended with 4 straight by the Cats to reestablish their largest lead, 4 points, at 24-20 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:05 to play in the first half, and when play resumes, John Wall will be shooting a free throw to complete the old fashioned 3 point play. In the fourth segment, the Cats extended their 4 point lead to 7 points, 29-22, at the under 4 TV timeout but MSU will be shooting 3 free throws when play resumes, with a chance to trim that 7 point lead back to 4 points again. The teams played the final 4 minutes on relatively even terms and Kentucky takes a 3 point lead to the locker room at the half, 32-29.

The pace is about 64 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for MISSISSIPPI STATE. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 29-14 in total rebounds and 11-3 on the offensive glass, and Kentucky holds the advantage on second chance points, 8-6.

In first half, UK had 32 possessions and MISSISSIPPI STATE had 33. The Cats grabbed a strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and MISSISSIPPI STATE grabbed a weak 14.3% of their misses. MISSISSIPPI STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.697 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp for its 3 second chance possession. UK had 0.750 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.727 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, 18.8% of their possessions, and MISSISSIPPI STATE committed 3 turnovers, 9.1% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7-8 attempts [87.5%] and MISSISSIPPI STATE made 6-9 free throws [66.7%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 12 of 34 attempts [35.3%] overall, and 1-12 [8.3%] shooting from long range For MISSISSIPPI STATE, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 3-14 [21.4%], and MISSISSIPPI STATE shot well from inside the arc, 7-15 [46.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 63 rd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while MISSISSIPPI STATE needs 34 points. MSU scored its 63 rd point on a free throw with 4:33 to play and the Bulldogs leading 63-60. The teams played out the final 4:33 of regulation to a 69-69 tie, and the teams played an extra 5 minutes as Kentucky secured its 10 th SEC win of the season 81-75 to move to 25-1; 10-1 and continue to set the pace for Vanderbilt and the rest of the league.

Second Half Summary:

MSU hit three for three 3-Pointers to open the second half and both of their other fireld goal attempts to sprint from a 3 point halftime deficit to a 4 point lead, 42-38 in the first 3 ½ minutes of the second half, forcing Kentucky to take a timeout to reorganize and figure out how to defend the perimeter. In the ½ minutes between the Kentucky timeout and the under 16 TV timeout, neither team scored, and Kentucky retains possession. In the second segment, the Cats outscored MSU 13-7 to regain the lead at the under 12 TV timeout 51-49, and MSU in possession of the ball when play resumes.

In the third segment, the Cats managed to extend the lead to 5 points for a short time, but a MSU three pointer trimmed the lea back to 2 points, 56-54. A Patterson basket eased the Cats back up by 4 points, 58-54 at the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats will have possession when play resumes. In the fourth segment, MSU took control of the game by outscoring the Cats 11-2 to take a 5 point lead, 65-60 at the under 4 TV timeout with only 3:15 to play in the game, and MSU in possession when play resumes.

In the final segment, MSU extended their lead to a game high 7 points, 67-60 on a pair of free throws, but the Cats responded with a Liggins 3 pointer followed by a Bledsoe run out to trim the lead to2 points, 67-65 with 1:57 to play, and a MSU timeout. After a stop, and a blank trip, the Cats stopped MSU again, calling a timeout with 52 seconds to play, and the score holding at 67-65. Patterson makes a baseline jump shot to tie the score with 38 seconds to play, and MSU calls another timeout with 32 seconds to play in the game and the score tied, 67-67. There is a 4.6 second difference between the game and shot clocks.

MSU missed its three point attempt, and Kentucky gets the ball out of bounds under the MSU basket with 6 seconds to play in the game, and a chance to win it on a final shot. The Cats move the ball into offensive court and call a timeout with 3.7 seconds to play. The old adage, it is not who starts but who finishes. The Cats have Liggins, Patterson, Cousins, Wall, and Bledsoe. Liggins missed a 10 foot baseline jump shot, and we have overtime.

In overtime, the Cats draw first blood with 1 of 2 Cousins' free throws, and then after Bledsoe misses both of his free throws, a Cousins offensive rebound produced a basket and a 3 point lead. However, that was short lived as MSU hit a 3 pointer to tie the score, but the Cats scored the next 5 points to move out to a 5 point lead, 77-72. However, another MSU three pointer cut the lead to 2 points, 77-75 with 27 seconds to play and the Cats in possession of the ball following MSU's last timeout. MSU fouls Wall with 25 seconds to play. Wall missed the first shot, and makes the second to ease out to a 3 point lead. After a MSU turnover, Liggins makes both free throws with 10 seconds to go, and MSU missed a 3 point attempt with about 3 seconds to play, and the Cats will have the ball with a 5 point lead. After trailing 67-60 with less than 3 minutes to play in the regulation, the Cats have outscored MSU 20-8 to get a very tough win, 81-75, in overtime.

Cousins was tuanted all week on the phone and
he showed that may be a bad idea as he responded with 19 pts 14 rbs.

UK scored its 81 points in a total of 74 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.095 ppp. MISSISSIPPI STATE scored its 75 points on a total of 73 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.027 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 51-35, and the Cats won the offensive glass 18-12. Kentucky converted their 18 second chances into 18 points while MISSISSIPPI STATE converted its 12 second chances into 22 points.

MISSISSIPPI STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.833 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.851 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a powerful 43.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI STATE was able to convert only 26.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 21-32 [65.6%]. MISSISSIPPI STATE made 10-16 [68.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 28-66 overall [42.4%] including a weak 4-24 from long range [16.7%]. For MISSISSIPPI STATE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 10-34 [29.4%] and MISSISSIPPI STATE shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 17-35[48.6%].

The Cats committed 11 turnovers for the game which is 14.9% of possessions. The Cats forced 9 MISSISSIPPI STATE turnovers, representing 12.3% of the MISSISSIPPI STATE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted pick ‘em game [70-70] and the score did stand at 70-70 at one point early in the overtime period. The Cats won by 6 points, 81-75. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.99 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.10 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.99 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.03 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 71 for MISSISSIPPI STATE, and the actual pace was 74 possessions for Kentucky and 73 possessions for MISSISSIPPI STATE.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Vanderbilt for the twelfth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 27 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

29
Cats Beat Tennessee; Go 24-1; 9-1