07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

32
Cats Return To Rupp To Avenge Their Only Loss Against South Carolina

Four games remain in the 2009-2010 regular season for the Kentucky Wildcats, and I do not know anyone who would have forecast a 26-1 record with 4 to play for this Freshman/Sophomore laden basketball team, especially when you factor in a first year coach taking over a team that finished 2009 embroiled in turmoil and internal strife. However, this team is 26-1, 11-1 in the SEC, and has a very good opportunity to run the table over these last 4 games.

What makes the 26-1 even more perplexing is that the sole loss came at the hands of a South Carolina team that frankly is not very good, and should not have been able to beat this particular Kentucky team at any venue in America on any night of the season. But it did. On Thursday night, the Cats gets their rematch with this team, a chance to settle the score and let the Gamecocks, the rest of the SEC, and indeed the entire basketball world know that the solitary loss on this year's schedule was a fluke of epic proportions.

The Cats not only return to Rupp Arena to close the chapter regarding South Carolina in 2010, but it returns to Rupp triumphantly, having successfully traversed its most difficult two game road trip of this season, to Mississippi State and to Vanderbilt. Those back to back road wins against the best of the West and the best of the East [other than the Cats] essentially sealed the deal for the 2010 Cats with respect to the first of its major objective for the season, win the SEC regular season championship. Only a complete collapse, e.g. losing 3 or 4 of the final 4 games, will prevent that from happening now. As a result, the Cats' focus can shift first to pay backs and then to preparing for the post season as the #1 seed in the SEC tournament, and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in Mid-March.

SOUTH CAROLINA will bring an 14-12; 4-8 record into this game. For the entire season, SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 72.8 ppg on 71.8 possessions per game, 1.014 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 70.0 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.984 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA's turnover rate through 26 games is 17.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, SOUTH CAROLINA has grabbed an average 34.4% of their own misses but SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed their opponents to get 38.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.4 ppg on 72.2 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.910 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 27 games is 21.0% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.1% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for SOUTH CAROLINA'S full body of work, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 22 points, 82-60 in a game that will be played at a pace about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. The NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 1.14 ppp with a defensive efficiency of about 0.83 ppp range. The pre-game magic number is 72 points. Game Summary

GAME SUMMARY:

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Miller, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

Paybacks are Hell, and tonight is PAYDAY!!!!!

The Cats open by hitting 4 of their first 5 shots and race out to an 11-2 lead in the first 2 ½ minute forcing an early USC timeout. The USC timeout was effective at jump starting the USC offense, but did little to slow down the UK offense. At the under 16 TV timeout timeout, the Cats lead has been cut to 3 points, 16-13 with 14:34 to play in the first half. In the abbreviated second segment, USC trimmed the lead to only 2 points, 17-15, but the Cats scored the last 4 points of the segment to ease back on top by 6 points, 21-15 at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:20 to play in the half. The Cats will have the ball when play resumes.

In the first 8 minutes, the pace is fast, 75 to 80 range. The Cats have made over 61% of their shots, including 2-2 from long range, while USC has made 7-13, 54%. The Cats have owned the boards early, but the Cats' 4 turnovers has prevented their lead from being in double digits. When play resumes, the Cats go directly inside to Cousins to stretch the lead to 8 points, but after USC capitalized on another Kentucky turnover to trim the lead back to 4 points, 23-19, Calipari called a timeout, certainly to discuss the turnover situation with his players. However, out of the timeout, the Cats have another empty possession and USC cuts the lead back to only 2 points, 23-21. The Cats then respond with 4 points of their own to end the third segment with a 6 point lead, 27-21 at the under 8 TV timeout, and the Cats will have possession when play resumes.

Out of the timeout, the Cats score 4 more points, both following offensive rebounds, to extend their lead into double digits for the first time in the game, 31-21, prompting another USC timeout with 5:14 to go in the half. The Cats score again to finish a 10-0 run and extend their lead to 12 points, 33-21 before Downy ended the run to close the gap to 10 points, 33-23 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats worked to extend the lead to 14 points, 37-23 and had the ball with 37 seconds to play, but a bad shot by Liggins coupled by a buzzer beating 30 footer by Downy trimmed the lead back to 11 points, 37-26, at the half.

The pace is about 68 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends, 24-13 in total rebounds and 9-1 on the offensive glass, and Kentucky holds the advantage on second chance points, 11-0.

In first half, UK had 34 possessions and SOUTH CAROLINA had 35. The Cats grabbed a strong 42.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and SOUTH CAROLINA grabbed a pitiful 6.3% of their misses. SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.743 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 1 second chance possession. UK had 0.765 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.222 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 5 turnovers in the first half, 14.7% of their possessions, and SOUTH CAROLINA committed 8 turnovers, 22.9% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 3-6 attempts [50.0%] and SOUTH CAROLINA did not attempt a single free throw in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 16 of 36 attempts [44.4%] overall, and 2-7 [28.6%] shooting from long range For SOUTH CAROLINA, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 2-8 [25.0%], and SOUTH CAROLINA shot better from inside the arc, 10-20 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 69 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while SOUTH CAROLINA needs 43 points. Kentucky scored its 69 th point on a basket by Orton with 3:03 to play and the Cats leading 69-57. The teams played out the final 3:03 as Kentucky secured its 12 th SEC win of the season 82-61 to move to 27-1; 12-1 and avenge their only loss this season. The Cats maintain a full 2 game lead over Vanderbilt with 3 games to play in the SEC, and solidified themselves as the clear favorite to finish the final 3 SEC games as the 2010 regular season champions.

Second Half Summary:

The second half opens with the Cats hitting 4 of 8 and their only free throw, but two Kentucky turnovers, and 5-5 free throw shooting by Downy allows USC to match the Cats' point production in the opening segment of the second half, leaving the lead at 11 points, 46-35 at the under 16 TV timeout. USC will have possession. In the second segment, the Cats do not score while USC cuts the lead to only 6 points, 46-40 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 12:53 to play in the game. The Kentucky offense has gone AWOL over the last 6 minutes after starting out fast and building a 16 point lead early in the second half.

Out of the timeout, the teams trade baskets with the lead swinging between 8 and 6 points until USC scores on an offensive rebound and get the foul with 10 ½ minutes to play in the game, and the lead back to 6 points. However, the Cats then ran 5 straight points to send the lead back to double digits, 11 points, 57-46 with 9:13 to play. The Cats stretch the lead back to 13 points, 63-50, at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:22 to play, and Cousins will be shooting a free throw when play resumes as he attempts to complete the old fashioned 3 point play. The teams played the next 4 minutes on relatively even terms, and the Cats lead by 12, 67-55 at the under 4 TV timeout and USC in possession. The teams play out the final segment with the Cats extending their lead to a game high 23 points, 82-59 before USC ended the scoring with a final basket with a couple of seconds remaining in the game for a final score of 82-61.

UK scored its 82 points in a total of 67 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.224 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 61 points on a total of 69 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.884 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 47-31, and the Cats won the offensive glass 15-11. Kentucky converted their 15 second chances into 23 points while SOUTH CAROLINA converted its 11 second chances into 15 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.667 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.364 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.881 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.533 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a powerful 42.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to convert only 25.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 15-20 [75.0%]. SOUTH CAROLINA made 5-8 [62.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 32-64 overall [50.0%] including a weak 3-11 from long range [27.3%]. For SOUTH CAROLINA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 4-20 [20.0%] and SOUTH CAROLINA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 22-47[46.8%].

The Cats committed 10 turnovers for the game which is 14.9% of possessions. The Cats forced 11 SOUTH CAROLINA turnovers, representing 15.9% of the SOUTH CAROLINA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 22 point Kentucky win [82-60] and the Cats won by 21 points, 82-61. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.14 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.22 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.83 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.88 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 72 for SOUTH CAROLINA, and the actual pace was 67 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at Tennessee for the fourteenth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 29 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

31
Cats Sweep Vanderbilt; Go 26-1; 11-1