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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

33
Cats Head Out for Final Road Trip of 2010 Season-Tennessee

Last night, the Cats exacted their sweet payback upon SOUTH CAROLINA and handed the Gamecocks a 21 point defeat, their second worst defeat of the season [26 point loss at Tennessee on February 6, 2010]. The Cats avenged their only loss of the 2009-10 season and became the only team in the nation who has beaten every team on its entire schedule during this historic season. Ironically, the only team to defeat this SOUTH CAROLINA team worse than the Cats did last night is the Cats' next opponent, at Tennessee.

The 2010 SEC Season is winding down to its end, and the Cats have a little unfinished business before they can turn their full attention to the third season, post season 2010. That unfinished business consists of a final 2 game SEC road trip, at Tennessee and then at Georgia, before closing out the regular season on Senior Day in Rupp against Florida. The Cats maintain a 2 game lead and the tie-breaker over their closest SEC contender, Vanderbilt, with 3 games remaining, and need only one win or one Vandy loss to clinch the 2010 regular season SEC Championship. There is very little doubt that the Cats will do just that. Their first opportunity to slam the door shut on all pretense of opportunity for Vanderbilt will come Saturday afternoon when the Cats travel to Tennessee.

The Kentucky Tennessee basketball rivalry has always been among the most intense border wars in college basketball, and with Bruce Pearl's arrival in Knoxville, this old rivalry heated to levels not seen perhaps since Ray Mears' Orange Blazer, and little Stu Aberdeen sat at his side. With the addition of John Calipari to the Kentucky landscape, the heat generate by this rivalry is sure to cause Bruce Pearl'sweat glands to work overtime.

Tennessee's 2009-2010 season has truly been two distinct seasons, 2009 and 2010. In 2009, Tennessee posted a 10-2 record, with a 1 point loss to Purdue on a neutral court, and an inexplicable 22 point loss at Southern California. However, the most impressive win for the Vols during the 2009 portion of this season was a 7 point win at Memphis [#55] on New Year's Eve. Despite the overall weak 2009 schedule, the Vols had performed at a very high level of efficiency through those 12 games.

Then on January 1, 2010, the entire tenor of the Vols' season took a left turn as 4 of their top 7 players were arrested on various weapons and drugs charges that cost their team the services of all 4 players for several games, and the services of Tyler Smith permanently. Since that day, Tennessee has played 15 games, 13 in the SEC and two more non-conference games prior to the SEC against Charlotte and Kansas. In the immediate aftermath of the strife, the remaining Vols rallied around their coaches and teammates to hand Charlotte a 17 point defeat and to give #1 Kansas their only loss of this entire season by 8 points. However, as the emotional boost of these events began to wane, the Tennessee team settled into a new reality, losing 5 of their next 13 games in the SEC taking them completely out of contention for the SEC championship and probably out of the running for the #2 seed from the SEC East in the SEC Tournament next month.

However, Cat fans should make no mistake that Tennessee, in Knoxville, remains a very dangerous opponent, and the Cats will need to play one of their best games to get out of Knoxville with their 28 th win and avoid their second loss of this season.

It remains instructive to compare this Tennessee team's 2009 performance to its 2010 performance.

As this table demonstrates, the Vols have responded to their new reality by slowing down the pace against a decided more difficult schedule. Their offensive efficiency has declined but their defensive efficiency has taken a nose dive. Their turnover rate has increased a little, but their defensive turnover rate has deteriorated significantly. Finally, they are not rebounding at either end of the floor as well as they had done in their first 12 games. The more difficult schedule can account for much of this deterioration, but it can't explain all of it.

Tennessee today is a shadow of the team that started the year with Tyler Smith, and the team that used an emotionally charged set of circumstances to beat a great Kansas team. However, that shadow remains dangerous in Knoxville, and the Cats should not approach this game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up.

For nearly every game matchup analysis, I rely upon both teams' complete body of work on the season, but in this particular case, I don't believe the Tennessee season numbers are representative of their quality of play over the last 13 games. Therefore, I have decided to use their cumulative numbers since January 1, 2010 for this analysis.

TENNESSEE will bring an 20-7; 8-5 record into this game. Over the last 15 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 69.6 ppg on 68.7 possessions per game, 1.013 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.8 ppg on 68.8 possessions, 0.971 ppp. TENNESSEE's turnover rate through those 15 games is 18.6% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.3% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an average 32.4% of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 34.1% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.5 ppg on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.116 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.2 ppg on 71.8 possessions, 0.908 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 27 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 20.0% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.6% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.9% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for TENNESSEE'S record over the last 15 games, and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a pick ‘em game, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for each team. Based upon Kentucky's demonstrated ability to win the close ones when the spot lights shine bright, I believe Kentucky will win by 1 point, 71-70.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Miller, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats open with 2 turnovers in their first 4 possessions, and Tennessee missed their first 6 shots, 4 of which are from long range, before a Tennessee 3 pointer trims the Kentucky early 4-0 lead to 1 point and breaks the scoring ice for UT. They then proceed to go on an 8 point run to take a 4 point lead, 8-4 at the under 16 TV timeout with 15:05 to play in the first half. Tennessee will have the ball when play resumes. In the first 5 minutes, the Cats have made only 2 of 9 shots, missing all 3 of their attempts from outside the arc and their only free throw attempt. Tennessee has made 3 of 12 attempts, including 2 of 7 from long range. Tennessee has gone to the boards and holds a huge 4-1 advantage on the offensive glass and 11-6 advantage in total rebounds in the early going. The pace is about 80 to 90 possessions early, which on its face should be more to Kentucky's liking that Tennessee's.

Out of the timeout, UT makes 1 of 2 free throws and runs out after back to back Kentucky missed shots for run out baskets to extend their run to 13 points and a 9 ponit lead, 13-4 prompting Coach Calipari to call a timeout. The timeout did nothing to change the momentum of the game as UT scored another 5 points to extend their lead to 18-4 and their run to 18 straight points at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:22 to play. Wall will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes, with a chance to break the Cats' scoring drought of about 6 minutes.

In the first 8 minutes, each team has 2 turnovers, but UT holds a decisive advantage on the boards and in shooting. UT leads on the glass 17-7 and 5-1 on the offensive glass, and while UT is shooting over 40%, the Cats are only shooting 14% in the early going. In the third segment, the Cats used 5-6 free throw shooting to claw back to within 8 points of the Vols, but a late 3 pointer by UT extended the lead back to 11 points, 27-16 at the under 8 TV timeout. Even thought the Cats were able to cut into that commanding UT lead, it still only made 3 of 8 shots during the third segment, but 4 offensive rebounds produced 5 second chance points in the segment.

The teams played on even terms in the fourth segment, with each team scoring 6 points on their 6 possessions, as UT maintains its lead at 11 points, 33-22 at the under 4 TV timeout and UT will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes as a result of Cousins' second foul at the end of the segment. Over the last 2 game segments, the Cats have picked up the rebounding and cut the one time 10 rebound advantage to only 2 rebounds, 20-18, and the Cats have moved into an advantage on the offensive glass 8-6, and 8-3 on second chance points.

The teams again played the final segment of the first half on even terms, 7 points each, and UT leads by 11, 40-29, at the half.

The pace is about 72 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for TENNESSEE. Tennessee controlled the boards, 22-20 in total rebounds after holding a huge 17-7 advantage after the first 8 minutes of the game. On the offensive glass, the Cats have edged into the lead, 8-6, after Tennessee started with a 5-1 advantage on the offensive glass. Kentucky has used its second chance opportunities to score 8 points, to only 3 points for UT.

In first half, UK had 36 possessions and TENNESSEE had 35. The Cats grabbed a weak 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and TENNESSEE grabbed a similar 33.3% of their misses. TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 1.057 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.583 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, 16.7% of their possessions, and TENNESSEE committed 5 turnovers, 14.3% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 14-19 attempts [73.7%] and TENNESSEE made 4-7 [57.1%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 7 of 29 attempts [24.1%] overall, and 1-11 [9.1%] shooting from long range For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 4-15 [26.7%], and TENNESSEE shot better than any UK opponent this season from inside the arc, 12-18 [66.7%].

The obvious difference in the first half was the respective shooting percentages, and UT's 12 point advantage in the paint. Kentucky's defense allowed entirely too many uncontested layups during the first half.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 759 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 46 points, while TENNESSEE needs 35 points. Neither team reached 75 points in this game, but Kentucky would have require 75 points to win the game as Tennessee managed to score 74, and won 74-65. Kentucky suffered its 2 nd loss of the season 74-65 to fall to 27-2; 12-2. The Cats 2 game lead in the SEC over Vanderbilt shrinks to 1 ½ games pending the outcome of Vanderbilt's game todaya at Arkansas, with 2 games remaining on the regular schedule.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins for the Cats just like the first half, with poor shooting, 2 turnovers, and Tennessee extending an 11 point halftime lead to 16 points before a late basket by Wall trimmed the lead back to “only” 14 points, 49-35, at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:51 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, UT scores the next 5 points to establish the largest lead of the game, 19 points, 54-35. Wall and Bledsoe respond with 9 straight points for the Cats to trim the lead back to 10 points at the under 12 TV timeout and Wall will be shooting a free throw when play resumes to attempt to complete his second old fashioned 3 points play of this 9 point Kentucky run.

Wall missed the chance to trim the lead to single digits, but another defensive stop and a flush by Patterson cuts the lead to 8 points, completing a Kentucky 11 point run. Chism stopped the run, and a pair of Cousins' free throws trimmed the lead back to 8 points, 56-48. When a Kentucky press prevented UT from getting the ball in bounds, UT called a timeout with 9:23 to play. Neither team is able to score again in the balance of the third segment, but UT will be shooting a pair of free throws when the under 8 TV timeout ends with 7:35 remaining in the game.

In the fourth segment, the Cats ride a shooting outburst by Miller and Wall to trim the onetime 19 point lead to 4 points on 2 occasions, but each time, Tennessee has responded with a basket to move out by 6, 65-59 at the under 4 TV timeout and the Cats in possession. In the final segment, Cousins made both free throws, and made back to back run out baskets to tie the score, 65-65 with 2:09 to play, and Tennessee taking another timeout. Tennessee responds to the challenge with a layup and a Hopson 3 to go back on top of the Cats by 5 points, 70-65 with about 45 seconds to play. Coach Calipari calls a timeout to plan his strategy for the final few possessions.

On the play, Wall is called for charging as he attempts to get the ball to Cousins underneath the basket. On the inbounds, Kentucky fouls Prince for the 1+1 free throw opportunity and 24 seconds to play. Prince made them both, and the teams played out the final few seconds as Tennessee wins 74-65.

UK scored its 65 points in a total of 71 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.915 ppp. TENNESSEE scored its 74 points on a total of 69 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.073 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 40-36, and the Cats won the offensive glass 14-8. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 12 points while TENNESSEE converted its 8 second chances into 9 points.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.942 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.746 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to convert only 23.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 21-27 [77..8%]. TENNESSEE made 12-17 [70.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-60 overall [35.0%] including a weak 2-22 from long range [9.1%]. For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 6-25 [24.0%] and TENNESSEE shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 22-34 [64.7%].

The Cats committed 13 turnovers for the game which is 18.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 11 TENNESSEE turnovers, representing 15.9% of the TENNESSEE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a pickem game based on UT's last 15 games, and a 4 point loss based on both teams' full bodies of work, 68-72 [65-74] and the Vols won by 9 points, 74-65. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.94 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.92 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 1.00 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.07 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 70 possessions for the Cats and 70 for TENNESSEE, and the actual pace was 71 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for TENNESSEE.

Next Game On Schedule: Wednesday night at Georgia for the fifteenth SEC game of the 2010 season. This will be the 30 th regular season game of 2009-10.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

32
Cats Avenge South Carolina; Go 27-1; 12-1

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