07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

34
Cats Get Final Road Game of 2010 at Georgia

On Saturday afternoon, the Cats failed to take advantage of an opportunity to lock up no worse than a tie with Vanderbilt for the SEC regular season championship, and the #1 Seed in the SEC East for the SEC Tournament. The Cats lost for the second time this season at TENNESSEE while Vanderbilt won at Arkansas, leaving the Cats with a 1 game lead with two games to play. Vanderbilt will write the next paragraph of this closing SEC Chapter on Tuesday night when they travel to Florida for their final road game of this season, and Kentucky will add its script to the book on Wednesday night in Athens Georgia, in the last road game of the season. A Kentucky win or a Vanderbilt loss will seal the SEC deal for the Cats. A Vanderbilt win coupled with another Kentucky loss will throw the race into a deadlock with one game to play this coming weekend.

This is the back drop for the Kentucky Georgia rematch of a game in January that saw a scrappy bunch of Bulldogs push the Cats much harder than most Cat fans expected or wanted to see. In that game, Georgia led at the half, 35-34. Georgia is only one of 6 opponents all season able to claim such a distinction, may be the only one to lead at the half at Rupp. In the second half, the score was tied, 59-59 at the under 8 TV timeout and the Cats lead stood at a mere 3 points at the under 4 TV timeout, 65-62. The final margin was 8 points, due primarily to the Cats hitting 7 of 8 free throws over the last 4 minutes of the game after Georgia was forced to foul due to trailing.

Georgia is a bit of an enigma. There record currently stands at 13-14; 5-9 in the SEC, but at home [and semi-home], this team is 13-3, including wins in their last 4 home games against Vandy, South Carolina, Alabama, and Florida. They also claim home victories over Illinois [semi-home], and Georgia Tech out of conference and TENNESSEE prior to the current 4 game home winning streak. The Dawgs were a tough out in Rupp in early January, and they will be an even tougher out in Athens in early March.

Prior to Saturday's game in Knoxville, I warned that the Cats could not approach that game thinking that they can simply waltz into Thompson-Bowling and get the W by showing up. However, it appears to this observer that is exactly what the Cats tried to do, and they left with the L instead. The same analysis applies to this game with Georgia; the Cats will make a huge mistake if they believe that showing up will be enough to get out of Athens with a badly needed W.

GEORGIA will bring an 13-14; 5-9 record into this game. Through 27 games, GEORGIA has averaged 69.2 ppg on 67.0 possessions per game, 1.033 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 69.6 ppg on 67.5 possessions, 1.031 ppp. GEORGIA's turnover rate through those 27 games is 22.9% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 17.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, GEORGIA has grabbed an average 37.5% of their own misses but GEORGIA has allowed their opponents to get 32.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg [under 80 ppg for the first time this season] on 72.1 possessions per game, 1.108 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.5 ppg on 71.7 possessions, 0.913 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 29 games is 20.7% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful 42.2% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 30.7% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for GEORGIA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 4 point Kentucky win, 72-68, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for Georgia. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.027 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.991 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Mississippi: Wall, Miller, Bledsoe, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats open making 2 of their first 5 shots including 1 for 3 from long range while Georgia only makes 1 of their first 5 shots as the Cats ease out to an early 5-2 lead when an injury to Wall stopped play with about 17:25 to play in the first half. After the Cats extend their lead to 7-2 on a pair of free throws by Patterson, Georgia used strong board work and 5 second chance points to tie the score, 7-7 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Dawgs score on their first possession and convert a Kentucky turnover into a run out fast break basket, for a 9 point run and a 4 point lead, 11-7 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 14:57 to play in the half.

Out of their timeout, Wall hits his second three pointer of the game to trim the Georgia lead back to 1 point, 11-10. In the first 6 minutes, Georgia has controlled the boards at both ends of the floor, 6-2 on offensive rebounds and 9-5 in total rebounds, producing a 8-4 advantage on second chance points. The pattern continues to the end of the second segment with the Dawgs holding a 1 point lead, 18-17 at the under 12 TV timeout and Georgia will have one free throw to complete the three point play when play resumes.

The early story of this game is the rebounding. After Georgia hit a three pointer to take their largest lead of the night, 6 points, 26-20, the Cats ran off the next 6 points to tie the score prompting a Georgia timeout with 7:43 to play. When play resumes, Dodson fouls for the Cats' 7 th foul of the half and Georgia will be at the line for the 1+1 when play resumes after the under 8 TV timeout. In the 4 th segment, Kentucky rode a pair of Dodson 3 pointers to move back into the lead, 34-32 at the under 4 TV timeout and the Cats will have the possession when play resumes. In the final segment, the Cats extended their lead to 4 points, 40-36 at the half.

The pace is about 68 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for GEORGIA. GEORGIA controlled the boards, 19-15 in total rebounds. On the offensive glass, the Dawgs have a 8-6 advantage that has produced a GEORGIA advantage of 19-10 in second chance points

In first half, UK had 34 possessions and GEORGIA had 33. The Cats grabbed a weak 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and GEORGIA grabbed powerful 47.1% of their misses. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.515 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 2.375 ppp for its 8 second chance possession. UK had 0.882 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, 17.6% of their possessions, and GEORGIA committed 6 turnovers, 18.2% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 2-2 attempts [100.0%] and GEORGIA made 4-6 [66.7%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball well in the first half, hitting 16 of 33 attempts [48.5%] overall, and 6-17 [35.3%] shooting from long range For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 2-8 [25.0%], and GEORGIA shot very well from inside the arc, 13-25 [52.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 79 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 39 points, while GEORGIA needs 43 points. Kentucky scored its 79 th points on a Free throws by Wall with 0:42 to play in the game and the Cats leading 80-67. Kentucky finished the game to get back on the winning side of the ledger, seal the SEC regular season championship with one game to play, and move their record to 28-2; 13-2. The Cats 1 game lead in the SEC over Vanderbilt with one game remaining.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half with the first 5 points, a 3 pointer by Wall and a steal and fast break basket by Cousins, unassisted prompting a very early Georgia timeout, down 9 points 45-36. Out of the timeout, another Georgia turnover produces a Kentucky fast break led by Cousins who gets the assist on a pass to Patterson. Then another Georgia turnover produced a Wall runout and an old fashioned 3 point play to break this game wide open, 50-36, and then another steal, this time by Bledsoe, produced another Kentucky runout, but Georgia elected to foul Bledsoe rather than allow the layup. Georgia takes its second timeout of the half with 16:59 to play in the game. Over the balance of the opening segment, the Cats extended their lead to 15 points, 55-40 at the under 16 TV timeout, and Georgia will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes.

In the second segment, Georgia and Kentucky trade baskets, but Georgia's 1 three pointer to Kentucky's none allowed the Dawgs to trim the lead to 14 points, 63-49 at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:05 to play in the game. Liggins will be shooting a free throw in an attempt to complete his three point play when play resumes. In the third segment, the Cats continued to control the game and extend their lead to 18 points, 70-52 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:19 to play in the game. Georgia will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. Back to back 3 pointers by Georgia cuts the lead to 10 points, 70-60, and after a Kentucky basket, Georgia hits their third straight 3 pointer to cut the lead to single digits, 72-63. The Cats get it inside to Patterson to move back up by 11, 74-63 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:32 to play in the game. The teams played out the final 3 ½ minutes as the Cats won 80-68.

UK scored its 80 points in a total of 64 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.250 ppp. GEORGIA scored its 68 points on a total of 63 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.079 ppp.

Georgia won the total rebounding battle, 37-28, and the Dawgs won the offensive glass 18-8. Kentucky converted their 8 second chances into 12 points while GEORGIA converted its 18 second chances into 28 points.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.635 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.556 ppp for its 18 second chance possessions. UK had 1.063 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 29.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert a powerful 47.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 10-12 [83.3%]. GEORGIA made 11-14 [78.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-57 overall [54.4%] including an improved 8-24 from long range [33.3%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 7-19 [36.8%] and GEORGIA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 18-41 [43.9%].

The Cats committed 10 turnovers for the game which is 15.6% of possessions. The Cats forced 15 GEORGIA turnovers, representing 23.8% of the GEORGIA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 4 point Kentucky win, 72-68 and the won by 12 points, 80-68. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.03 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.25 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.99 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.08 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 70 possessions for the Cats and 69 for GEORGIA, and the actual pace was 64 possessions for Kentucky and 63 possessions for GEORGIA.

Next Game On Schedule: Sunday against Florida at Rupp for Senior Day, for the last SEC game of the 2010 season and the 31 st game overall for the 2009-10 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

33
Cats Fall At Tennessee; Go 27-2; 12-2