07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

35
Cats Close Regular Season at Rupp Hosting Florida

About a week ago, the Cats sustained their second loss of the 2009-10 season at the hands of the hated Orange in Knoxville, and many members of the Big Blue Nation took that opportunity to fall into a tailspin of negativity about this team. I am sad to say that I found myself among those in that tailspin, out of control with a loss of perspective. I am glad that the coaches and players that are making this team run did not react that way, and I am impressed by those fans who maintained sanity in the face of that ugly orange defeat and were able keep the loss in its proper context.

I apologize for my temporary insanity, and loss of perspective.

On Tuesday, the Cats returned to form and defeated GEORGIA by 12 points in a game that could have produced a much uglier margin but for Coach Calipari figuratively calling off the Cats to prevent a painting of Athens in Dawg blood. By returning to their winning ways, the Cats achieved several milestones [or inch pebbles if you prefer to only focus on the ultimate prize].

The 2009-2010 Team has won at least a share of the regular season SEC Championship for the 44th time, and with that share the #1 seed from the East for this year's SEC Tournament.
Won 6 of 8 SEC road games, and 7 of 9 road games on the season.
With their 28 th win of the season, this Cat team has posted the most wins ever by a UK team in a regular season.

• 1946-47: 27 regular season wins

• 1947-48: 27 regular season wins

• 1996-97: 27 regular season wins

• 26 wins in regular season for 86, 96, 98, and 03 teams
This team has all but sealed a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament
This team is assured of only one Rupp loss for the first time since 2005, and with a win on senior day will be the first UK team to go unbeaten at home in a decade.

Sunday at noon, the Cats will host the Gators on Senior day. There are 3 seniors on this team; Ramon Harris, Perry Stevenson, and Mark Krebs. Each of them will be honored in the manner that has become the custom for UK players with their families present, the run through the hoops, and the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home.” Whether some of the undergraduates on this team receive any special recognition or not, it is likely that Sunday will mark the last time to play in a Kentucky uniform at Rupp for John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson, who represent the heart and soul of this 2009-2010 team. These three players, following the guidance of Coach Calipari, have played their way into the hearts and memories of the entire Big Blue Nation, and they have rewritten so much of the UK Record Book in a single year.

Thank you Ramon, Perry, Mark, Patrick, John and DeMarcus for your contributions to the UK Basketball program. While you may be moving on to another portion of your young lives, you will forever be Wildcats.

Yes, Sunday is Senior Day!!! Yes, Sunday marks an end of the regular season!!! And, Yes!!! Sunday marks the beginning of the post season for this team and the BBN.

The Florida Gators are only incidental to it all. Prior to the season, I projected that the Cats would have the SEC wrapped up and that this last game would be of no consequence to the SEC race, and that is exactly what has occurred. Kentucky has emerged the champs, and the Gators are now firmly entrenched in 4 th place in the SEC East fighting for an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, and not a 3 rd straight NIT appearance after their back to back NCAA championships in 2006 and 2007.

The Gators have become irrelevant!!!!

FLORIDA will bring an 20-10; 9-6 record into this game. Through 30 games, FLORIDA has averaged 71.7 ppg on 67.6 possessions per game, 1.060 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 67.2 possessions, 0.964 ppp. FLORIDA's turnover rate through those 30 games is 18.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, FLORIDA has grabbed an above average 36.5% of their own misses but FLORIDA has allowed their opponents to get 33.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.9 ppg on 71.9 possessions per game, 1.112 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.6 possessions, 0.916 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 30 games is 20.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for FLORIDA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 17 point Kentucky win, 77-62, in a game to be played at a pace of about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for FLORIDA. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.100 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.886 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari the starting lineup he used against Florida for Senior Day: Wall, Harris, Stevenson, Krebs, and Patterson.

The three senior reserves who join Patterson and Wall in today's starting lineup do their job well, as the Cats ease out to a 5-3 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats hit 2 of 4 shots while holding Florida to 1 of 4. The Gators will have a free throw to complete a 3 point play when the game resumes. After the timeout, Coach Calipari allows these seniors to stay in the game as a reward for their solid starting segment. Coach Calipari brings in Cousins, Bledsoe and Miller with 14:37 to play. Over the remainder of an extended second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 7 points, 16-9, at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:55 to play in the half. When play resumes, the Cats will have the ball following the Gators' segment ending 5 th turnover. In the early going, the pace is very slow, 60 to 65 possessions, and the Cats have scored their 16 points on only 12 possession while limiting the Gators to 9 points on 13 possessions.

In the shortened third segment, the Gators used their first 3 pointer of the day to trim a point from the Cats' lead down to 6 points, 22-16 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the 4 th segment, the cats broke this game open and took a 16 point lead, 36-20 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams play the final segment of the first half as Florida crawls back into the game, cutting the lead to 10 point, 41-31 at the half.

The pace is about 62 possessions for the Cats and 64 possessions for FLORIDA. Kentucky controlled the boards, 17-13 in total rebounds, but Florida earned a 1 rebound edge on the offensive glass, 7-6. Despite the 1 offensive rebound deficit, the Cats got one more second chance point, 9-8.

In first half, UK had 31 possessions and FLORIDA had 32. The Cats grabbed a strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, and FLORIDA grabbed a good 38.9% of their misses. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.719 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 1.032 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, 22.6% of their possessions, and FLORIDA committed 7 turnovers, 21.9% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7-8 attempts [87.5%] and FLORIDA made 8-12 [66.7%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball well in the first half, hitting 14 of 26 attempts [53.8%] overall, and 6-12 [50.0%] shooting from long range For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 1-5 [20.0%], and FLORIDA shot very well from inside the arc, 10-22 [45.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 78 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 37 points, while FLORIDA needs 47 points. Neither team reached the MAGIC NUMBER in this game as the Cats won 74-66. Kentucky finished the game to complete the 2009-2010 regular season 29-2; 14-2 and SEC regular season champions by 2 full games over Vanderbilt

Second Half Summary:

Florida opens the second half and cuts into the Kentucky lead to 8 points, and missed on 2 opportunities to cut the lead down to 6. Then John Wall took over and scored 4 straight fast break points to extend the lead back to 12 points, 47-35 prompting a Florida time out with 17:12 to play in the game. After the Florida timeout, the teams traded baskets to the end of the segment and the Cats holding that 12 point lead, 49-37 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats commit back to back turnovers, and Florida converts for 7 straight points that trims the lead to only 5 points, 49-44 forcing Coach Calipari to call a timeout. Following the Kentucky timeout, the Gators continue to cut the Kentucky lead that once stood at 18 points in the first half, which is now 3 points, 59-56 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:53 to play in the game, and the Cats will have the ball when play resumes.

The story of this game is the slow pace coupled with Kentucky's Jeckyl an Hyde defensive performance for the first 15 minutes v the last 15 minutes. The question now is which defensive effort will prevail for the Cats over the final 10 minutes of this game, holding to a slim 3 point lead in this race to 78 points. In a short 3 rd segment, the Cats scored the only point, on a Wall free throw, to extend the lead to 4 points, 60-56 at the under 8 TV timeout and Florida will have possession when play resumes. In the fourth segment, the Cats eased back up by 6 points, 66-60 at the under 4 TV timeout and Floria will be shooting the bonus at the line when play resumes.

The teams exchange baskets over the first 3 minutes of the final segment, and the Gators begin to foul the Cats with one minute to play, down 6, 68-62. The Cats made enough free throws in the final minute to win the game 74-66.

UK scored its 74 points in a total of 64 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.156 ppp. FLORIDA scored its 66 points on a total of 66 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp.

FLORIDA won the total rebounding battle, 37-34, and the Gators won the offensive glass 18-12. Kentucky converted their 12 second chances into 12 points while FLORIDA converted its 18 second chances into 16 points.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.758 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp for its 18 second chance possessions. UK had 0.969 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a fair 38.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert a powerful 45.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 20-28 [71.4%]. FLORIDA made 12-21 [57.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-49 overall [46.9%] including an improved 8-18 from long range [44.4%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 4-15 [26.7%] and FLORIDA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 21-46 [45.7%].

The Cats committed 13 turnovers for the game which is 20.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 13 FLORIDA turnovers, representing 19.7% of the FLORIDA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 15 point Kentucky win, 77-62 and the won by 8 points, 74-66. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.10 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.16 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.89 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.00 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 70 possessions for the Cats and 70 for FLORIDA, and the actual pace was 64 possessions for Kentucky and 66 possessions for FLORIDA.

Next Game On Schedule: Friday at 1 pm in the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament when the Cats will face the winner of the first round game between South Carolina and Alabama. This will be the first game of the 2010 post season, and the 32 nd game overall for the Cats.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

34
Cats Defeat Georgia; Go 28-2; 13-2