07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

36
Cats Begin "Third" Season in SEC Tournament Against Alabama

A basketball year has three “seasons.” First, the non-conference schedule, second the conference schedule, and lastly, the post season tournaments. The 2009-2010 Cats finished the first season 15-0 and became the first program to win its 2000 th game for the program. This team then traversed the SEC waters and finished the second season 14-2, winning all 8 of their SEC home games and 6 of 8 SEC road games. The losses occurred at South Carolina and Tennessee.

This team became the first UK team since 2000 to finish a season undefeated at Rupp Arena. In the process, these Cats have rewritten significant portions of the UK Basketball record book, won a 44 th SEC championship, earned a #2 ranking in both major polls, earned the top seed going into this week's SEC Tournament, and earned a #1 seed as action moves into the NCAA Tournament to crown the 2010 National Champion.

At 29-2, this team has won more regular season games than any prior UK team, and stands to finish the 2010 season standing aside 8 other great UK teams with similar regular season performances, e.g. 28-2 or better for the full season. Those 8 teams produced 5 of UK's 7 National championships, and an NIT Championship when the NIT was perhaps more significant on the National scene than the NCAA.

1996 34-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1978 30-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1952 29-2 Finished 29-3
1951 32-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1949 32-2 NCAA CHAMPS
1948 36-2 NCAA CHAMPS, then Lost to Phillips Oilers and Finished 36-3
1947 34-2 Lost NIT Championship Game and Finished 34-3
1946 28-2 NIT CHAMPS

Members of this team have distinguished themselves just as the team has done, rewriting significant segments of the individual UK records, earning high SEC and All American honors and recognition. In the SEC, Wall is Player of the Year, and Cousins is Freshman of the Year. Wall, Cousins, and Patterson are first team All SEC, and Patterson is on the All Defensive team. Nationally, Wall has been recognized by early selections as Player of the Year, and Wall and Cousins are both being named to several All American first teams. Patterson has been recognized for All American Honorable Mention.

Yes, this team, and its players have performed at such a high sustained level that they will forever be remembered regardless of how the Third Season ends.

The Third Season begins in Nashville, TN where the Cats will be a heavy favorite to add the SEC Tournament Championship to their resume'. As the SEC's Champion, the Cats enjoy a first round bye, and will play on Friday afternoon against Alabama, the winner of Thursdays' first round matchup between South Carolina [East #5] and Alabama [West #4].

In a tournament, anything can, and often does, happen; however, as the time to play approaches, it appears that the Cats will face Alabama, Tennessee, and either FLORIA or Vanderbilt for the Championship. Of this potential sequence of games, Tennessee should provide the most formidable opposition, and in my opinion, the winner of the Kentucky-Tennessee semi-final game should win this tournament.

ALABAMA will bring a 17-14; 11-6 record into this game following their first round SEC Tournament win on Thursday. Through 31 games, ALABAMA has averaged 68.5 ppg on 66.6 possessions per game, 1.030 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.5 ppg on 65.9 possessions, 0.978 ppp. ALABAMA's turnover rate through those 31 games is 19.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 21.1% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, ALABAMA has grabbed an above average 34.2% of their own misses but ALABAMA has allowed their opponents to get 34.4% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.7 ppg on 71.6 possessions per game, 1.113 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.3 possessions, 0.920 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 31 games is 20.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 31.8% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for ALABAMA and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 10 point Kentucky win, 74-64, in a game to be played at a pace of about 69 possessions for Kentucky and 69 possessions for ALABAMA. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.072 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.928 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari's starting lineup: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats open by missing their first two shots while Alabama hits its first two shots to take a 5-0 lead in the first minute of the game. The Cats then prevent Alabama from scoring while running off 6 points of their own to take a 1 point lead, 6-5, at the under 16 TV timeout. The pace in the early going is very slow, 55 possessions, which is to Alabama's liking, and not the Cats' preference. Alabama will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. After making both free throws, Patterson put the Cats back up by a point, 8-7, but that lead was short lived as Alabama road back to back 3 pointers, and 3 straight UK turnovers to race out to a 17-8 lead at the under 12 TV timeout and Alabama will be shooting another pair of free throws when play resumes.

After again making both free throws to extend the Alabama run to 12 points, and an 11 point lead, John Wall ended the run with a three point play. After Alabama reestablished their 11 point lead, 22-11, the Cats scored the last 4 points of the segment to trim the lead to 7 points, 22-15, at the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats will be shooting the 1+1 when play resumes with a chance to trim the lead to 5 points. However, Liggins missed the front end, and Alabama went to the other end and converted 2 more free throws to move back out by 9 points. On the next possession, the Cats committed their 5 th turnover and Alabama ran out for a layup and to reestablish their 11 point lead for the third time, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 6:58 to play in the first half, trailing 26-15.

Out of the timeout, the Cats run off 6 straight to trim the lead to 5 points, 26-21 before Alabama eases back to 7 points. Then a pair of Miller free throws and a Wall leaner trims the lead to 3 points, 28-25 before an Orton goal tending gave Alabama a 5 point lead, 30-25, at the under 4 TV timeout. Kentucky will have possession when play resumes. In the final segment, Alabama continued to own the boards and stretched their lead back out to 8 points, 35-27, and Alabama in possession, takes a timeout with less than 1 minute to play in the half. Alabama got to the line on a rebounding foul, but missed the front end, and Dodson make the Cats' only 3 pointer of the half at the buzzer to trim the lead back to 5 points, 35-30, at the half.

The pace is about 68 possessions for the Cats and 66 possessions for ALABAMA. Alabama controlled the boards, 26-16 in total rebounds, and ALABAMA won the offensive boards 11-3. Alabama used the second chances to gain a 12-6 advantage on second chance points, and that advantage provided the half time margin, and kept the Cats at bay the entire first half of the game.

In first half, UK had 34 possessions and ALABAMA had 33. The Cats grabbed an n anemic 16.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA grabbed a powerful 45.8% of their misses. ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.697 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.091 ppp for its 11 second chance possession. UK had 0.706 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 5 turnovers in the first half, 14.7% of their possessions, and ALABAMA committed 4 turnovers, 12.1% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 7-9 attempts [77.8%] and ALABAMA made 9-11 [81.8%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly in the first half, hitting 11 of 28 attempts [39.3%] overall, and 1-9 [11.1%] shooting from long range For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was strong, 4-7 [57.1%], and ALABAMA shot poorly from inside the arc, 7-27 [25.9%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 68 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while ALABAMA needs 33 points. Kentucky scored its 68 th point on a dunk by Patterson with 1:25 to play in the game and the Cats leading 68-63. The teams played out the final 1:25 as the Cats held on to win 73-67 and advance to the SEC Semi-finals tomorrow afternoon and get their 30 th win of the 2009-2010 season.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky scores the first 4 points of the second half to trim the lead to only one point but Alabama responded just as they did in the first half with back to back second chance baskets to move back on top by 6 points, 40-34 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 16:45 to play in the game. While the offensive rebounding continues to lead the story for this game, the Cats committed 4 turnovers on their first 7 possessions of the second half. Out of the timeout, the Cats grabbed their 4 th offensive rebound of the game [compared to 12 for Alabama] and scored a basket to trim the lead back to 4 points, 40-36, at the under 16 TV timeout. Alabama will have possession when play resumes.

John Wall then takes over the game with three straight drives to the rim to score, and he was fouled on the third trip to give the Cats their first lead since the score stood at 6-5 in the very early moments of the game. Then an Alabama turnover resulted in a Bledsoe drive to the hoop for a score to give the Cats their biggest lead of the game, 3 points, 45-42, prompting an Alabama timeout with 13:21 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, Alabama stopped the UK run, but Patterson converted two free throws to east the Cats back up by 3 points. After Alabama made 1 of 2 free throws, Orton scored on a pick and roll from Wall to extend the Cats' lead to 4 points, 49-45 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:52 to play in the game. Wall will be shooting the 1+1 when play resumes.

As play resumes, Wall makes both free throws, and the Cats then convert an Alabama turnover and a miss for back to back scores to extend their lead to 10 points, 55-45 before Alabama scored to trim the lead back to 8 points with 9:31 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, Alabama turned the tables on the Cats converting a Kentucky turnover and a missed shot into back to back baskets to cut the lead back to 4 points, 55-51 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 8:37 to play in the game. The score was 57-51 at the under 8 TV timeout and during the 4 th segment of the second half the teams traded baskets as the Cats maintained a 7 point lead, 65-57, at the under 4 TV timeout. Alabama will have the ball when play resumes for the final segment of the game. The Cats win an advance 73-67.

UK scored its 73 points in a total of 69 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.058 ppp. ALABAMA scored its 67 points on a total of 68 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp.

ALABAMA won the total rebounding battle, 45-32, and the Crimson Tide won the offensive glass 21-7. Kentucky converted their 7 second chances into 14 points while ALABAMA converted its 21 second chances into 20 points.

ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.691 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.952 ppp for its 21 second chance possessions. UK had 0.855 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a pitiful 22.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA was able to convert a powerful 45.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the line, making 22-29 [75.9%]. ALABAMA made 16-23 [69.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-50 overall [50.0%] including an an embarrassing 1-13 from long range [7.7%]. For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 5-15 [33.3%] and ALABAMA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 18-52 [34.6%].

The Cats committed 12 turnovers for the game which is 17.4% of possessions. The Cats forced 10 ALABAMA turnovers, representing 14.7% of the ALABAMA possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 10 point Kentucky win, 74-64 and the won by 7 points, 73-67. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.07 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.06 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.93 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.98 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 69 for ALABAMA, and the actual pace was 69 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for ALABAMA.

Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon in the SEC Semifinals against the winner of the quarterfinal game between Tennessee and Mississippi at 1 pm. This will be the second game of the 2010 post season, and the 33 rd game overall for the Cats.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

35
Cats Defeat Florida; Finish Regular Season 29-2; 14-2