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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

37
Cats Advance to SEC Semis To Take On Tennessee

The Cats fought off a determined ALABAMA team in the Quarter Final round of the SEC Tournament and advance to Saturday's Semi-Final round where they will take on Tennessee who disposed of Mississippi in their Quarter Final game. In the regular season, Kentucky and Tennessee split their two encounters, each winning on their home court, and this Semi-Final match up will be to settle some old scores, and advance to the championship game of the SEC Tournament. Based on all the SEC Teams' complete bodies of work, Kentucky and Tennessee are the two best in the SEC, and the winner of this game should move on and win the SEC Tournament on Sunday.

TENNESSEE will bring a 25-7; 13-5 record into this game following their two wins in the first 2 rounds of the SEC Tournament. Through 32 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 74.5 ppg on 71.4 possessions per game, 1.044 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 64.7 ppg on 71.4 possessions, 0.906 ppp. TENNESSEE's turnover rate through those 32 games is 18.5% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.5% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, TENNESSEE has grabbed an above average 32.7% of their own misses but TENNESSEE has allowed their opponents to get 31.5% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.5 ppg on 71.6 possessions per game, 1.111 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.6 ppg on 71.2 possessions, 0.922 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 32 games is 20.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 41.3% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.3% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for TENNESSEE and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 3 point Kentucky win, 72-69, in a game to be played at a pace of about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 71 possessions for TENNESSEE. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.014 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.972 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari's starting lineup: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats win the opening tip, and get a lob to Cousins but he missed the dunk. After the teams traded a couple of baskets to a 4-4 tie two Kentucky fast breaks, one off a Tennessee miss and the other a Tennessee turnover ease the Cats out to a 4 point, 8-4 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. In the early going, the pace is mid 80s, which is much to the Cats' preference for this game. However, the Cats have committed 3 early turnovers in the segment compared to 2 turnovers by the Vols, and each team has grabbed one offensive rebound and scored a pair of second chance points.

In the second segment, the Cats only managed to score 2 points on their 6 possessions while Tennessee scored the last 4 points of the segment to trim a 6 point lead, 10-4, to only 2 points, 10-8, at the under 12 TV timeout. In the segment, Tennessee effectively slowed the pace down into the mid 70s range, and Chisom picked up 2 fouls which sent him to the bench. The Cats continued to turn the ball over, 2 more time for a total of 5 times, but the Vols committed 3 in the segment to give them 5 for the game also.

Out of the timeout, the Cats commit their 6 th turnover and Tennessee used the opportunity to tie the game at 10-10, but the Cats went into Cousins and then Patterson for a pair of dunks to pull back out by 4 points, 14-10 prompting a Tennessee timeout with 10:20 to play in the half. In the third segment, the Cats exploded for 13 points as the pace again quickened, and the Cats extended their lead to 6 points, 23-17 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:50 to play in the first half. In a short 4 th segment, both teams scored 2 points as the Cats maintained their 6 point lead, 25-19 at the under 4 TV timeout and Tennessee will have the ball when play resumes.

In the final segment of the first half, the Cats extended their lead to 9 points on a three pointer by Bledsoe, and following a Kentucky timeout, close the first half with the final 4 points to take a 13 point lead, 31-19 at the half.

The pace is about 70 possessions for the Cats and 72 possessions for TENNESSEE. Kentucky controlled the boards, 21-17 in total rebounds, but Kentucky and TENNESSEE each grabbed 5 offensive rebounds. However, the Cats used their 5 second chances to score 7 second chance points while TENNESSEE used their 5 second chances to 4 second chance points.

In first half, UK had 35 possessions and TENNESSEE had 36. The Cats grabbed a weak 29.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE grabbed a weaker 23.8% of their misses. TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.417 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 0.714 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 10 turnovers in the first half, 28.6% of their possessions, and TENNESSEE committed 11 turnovers, 30.6% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 6-13 attempts [46.2%] and TENNESSEE made 1-4 [25.0%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball well in the first half, hitting 12 of 24 attempts [50.0%] overall, and 2-7 [28.6%] shooting from long range For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was strong, 2-9 [22.2%], and TENNESSEE shot poorly from inside the arc, 6-19 [31.6%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 58 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 26 points, while TENNESSEE needs 39 points. Kentucky scored its 58 th point on a dunk by Dodson with 5:58 to play in the game and the Cats leading 58-41. The teams played out the final 5:58 as the Cats won easily 74-45 and advance to the SEC Championship game tomorrow afternoon and get their 31 st win of the 2009-2010 season.

Second Half Summary:

Tennessee opens the scoring in the second half with back to back buckets around a UK missed three pointer prompting a very quick timeout by Coach Calipari. Out of the timeout, the teams traded baskets as the Cats continue to maintain a double digit lead, 37-27 at the under 16 TV timeout with 15:00 to play in the game. When play resumes, Wall will be shooting a pair of free throws. In the second segment, the Cats extended their lead to a game high 14 points, 44-30, but a 5 point Tennessee run trimmed the lead back to single digits, 44-35, prompting another Kentucky timeout with 12:11 to play in the game.

In the third segment, Tennessee trims the to 6 points, 45-39, but a dunk by Patterson and a three by Bledsoe extended the lead back to 11 points with 8:30 to play, prompting another Tennessee timeout. Following the timeout, the Cats explode with a pair of Dodson three pointers and a Dodson Dunk to go in front by 17 points, 58-41 at the under 8 TV timeout with only 4:52 to play in the game.

The Cats finish a 17-2 run to go up 67-43 with 2:09 to play, at which time Calipari takes a timeout to remove his starters from the game. The Cats win by 29 points, 74-45.

UK scored its 74 points in a total of 65 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.138 ppp. TENNESSEE scored its 45 points on a total of 67 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.672 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 44-29, and the Wildcats won the offensive glass 14-10. Kentucky converted their 14 second chances into 14 points while TENNESSEE converted its 10 second chances into 10 points.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.522 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 0.923 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a season average 42.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to convert an anemic 24.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 16-30 [53.3%]. TENNESSEE made 9-15 [60.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-48 overall [52.1%] including 8-22 from long range [36.4%]. For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 2-15 [13.3%] and TENNESSEE shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 15-40 [37.5%].

The Cats committed 17 turnovers for the game which is 26.2% of possessions. The Cats forced 15TENNESSEE turnovers, representing 22.4% of the TENNESSEE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 3 point Kentucky win, 72-69 and the Cats won by 29 points, 74-45. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.01 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.14 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.96 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.67ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 71 for TENNESSEE, and the actual pace was 65 possessions for Kentucky and 67 possessions for TENNESSEE.

Next Game On Schedule: Sunday afternoon in the SEC Championship game against Mississippi State, the winner of the semi-final game between Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, at 1 pm. This will be the third game of the 2010 post season, and the 34 th game overall for the Cats.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

36
Cats Defeat Alabama and Advance to Semi Finals; 30-2; 15-2