07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

39
Cats Make Debut in Big Dance As 1 Seed

34 games are in the book for the Cats, and they have posted an impressive 32-2 record, undefeated in non-conference play, undefeated on neutral courts, undefeated at home, SEC regular season and post season tournament champions, ranked #2 in both major wire service polls, and the recipient of one of the treasured #1 seeds in the Big Dance. 34 Games down, and the potentially 6 more to go to achieve the ultimate goal for every team that aspires to greatness.

Yes, this team's record of achievement is superb. However, history will remember this team based on what it does between Thursday, March 18, 2010 and Monday, April 5, 2010. Will this team be able to traverse the Regional Waters to reach the National Finals on April 3 and 5? Will this team play for the school's 8 th National Championship on Monday, April 5? Will this team bring that big trophy and nets home on April 6?

34 games in the book, but the 2 to 6 games that it plays over the next 3 weeks are far and away the most significant. If the tournament plays out just as the architects foresaw, ala the seedings hold, the Cats will take on and win in succession East Tennessee State in Round 1, Texas, Wisconsin, and West Virginia to reach a Final Four match up with Duke. On the other side of the brackets, the seeders see Kansas and Syracuse playing in the other final 4 match up. Of course, history tells us that upsets occur in this game, and especially in this tournament, and the odds are stacked heavily against all 4 of these teams actually surviving the rigors of the first 4 rounds.

While fans can afford the luxury of looking ahead in this manner, the Cats must remain focused prior to each game in the sequence only upon that particular game, and that particular opponent. Looking ahead for any team in the Big Dance is often a fatal mistake that will send the team home earlier than it would have otherwise ended its season. So, first up for the Cats is East Tennessee State.

East Tennessee State comes to the Big Dance as the winner of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. ETSU brings a record of 20-14; 16-7 into this game. More importantly, ETSU finished this season by winning 9 of its last 11 games. However, the level of competition that ETSU has played is low [RPI SOS .4961]. However, this team did beat a roster depleted Arkansas in November by 9 point at Arkansas, and has played NCAA field members at Louisville [13 point loss], at Morgan State [9 point loss], at Tennessee [12 point loss], Murray State [4 point loss]. In addition to Louisville and Arkansas, ETSU has also played Morehead, a common UK opponent, losing by 2 points at Morehead.

Through 34 games, EAST TENNESSEE STATE has averaged 69.2 ppg on 69.9 possessions per game, 0.989 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 66.5 ppg on 69.8 possessions, 0.953 ppp. EAST TENNESSEE STATE's turnover rate through those 34 games is 21.2% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 23.9% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, EAST TENNESSEE STATE has grabbed an above average 35.2% of their own misses but EAST TENNESSEE STATE has allowed their opponents to get 33.9% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 79.2 ppg on 71.4 possessions per game, 1.110 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.1 possessions, 0.918 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 34 games is 20.3% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.8% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 40.9% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.2% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for EAST TENNESSEE STATE and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 15 point Kentucky win, 77-62, in a game to be played at a pace of about 71 possessions for Kentucky and 71 possessions for EAST TENNESSEE STATE. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.085 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.873 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari's starting lineup: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson.

The game opens with a very fast tempo, about 85 possessions, and during the period, each team hit 2-5 from 3-point range, 2-2 inside the arc, grabbed 1 offensive rebound and committed 2 turnovers. The difference is that the Cats hit 2-2 from the line while ETSU was 0-2 from the line, allowing the Cats to forge a fragile 2 point lead, 12-10 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats will have the ball when play resumes. After the timeout, the Cats score the next 9 points, adding to the last 3 of the opening segment, for a 12 point run to an 11 point lead, 21-10, prompting an ETSU timeout with 13:27 to play in the first half. After the timeout, the Cats added 2 more points to their run before ETSU stopped the run with a basket, and a Dodson 3 pointer ended the scoring in the second segment with the Cats up by 14 points, 26-12 at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:13 to play in the half. When play resumes, Orton will be shooting a pair of free throws.

The pace through the first 9 minutes is about 80 to 85 possessions, and the Cats have scored 26 points on just 17 possessions while holding ETSU to 12 points on 16 possessions. The Cats are controlling the boards 12-3. In the third segment, the Cats expanded their 14 point lead to 20 points, 34-14, at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, shortened by a Kentucky timeout with 4:23 to go, the Cats lead has expanded to 25 points, 43-18. The teams play the final segment and the Cats take a 28 point lead to the locker room at halftime, 54-26.

The pace is about 84 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for EAST TENNESSEE STATE. Kentucky controlled the boards, 25-14 in total rebounds, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive rebounds 6-4. The Cats used their 6second chances to score 8 second chance points while EAST TENNESSEE STATE used their 4 second chances to 4 second chance points.

In first half, UK had 42 possessions and EAST TENNESSEE STATE had 41. The Cats grabbed a good 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while EAST TENNESSEE STATE grabbed a poor 17.4% of their misses. EAST TENNESSEE STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.537 ppp on its 41 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 1.095 ppp on its 42 chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 9 turnovers in the first half, 21.4% of their possessions, and EAST TENNESSEE STATE committed 10 turnovers, 24.4% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 9-14 attempts [64.3%] and EAST TENNESSEE STATE made 2-11 [18.2%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball well in the first half, hitting 19 of 32 attempts [59.4%] overall, and 7-14 [50.0%] shooting from long range For EAST TENNESSEE STATE, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 2-11 [18.2%], and EAST TENNESSEE STATE shot well from inside the arc, 9-21 [42.9%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 95 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 41 points, while EAST TENNESSEE STATE needs 69 points. Kentucky scored its 95 th point on a Free Throw by Harris with 3:02 to play in the game and the Cats leading 96-66 The teams played out the final 3:02 as the Cats won 100-71 to win their first round NCAA game and advance to Saturday's second round with a record of 33-2; 17-2.

Second Half Summary:

The second half started exactly the way the first half was, as the Cats outscored ETSU 18-9 in the opening segment on the strength of 4-4 three point shooting, and 2-3 from inside the arc, producing a 37 point lead, 72-35 at the under 16 TV timeout. In an extended second period, the Cats played on even terms with ETSU as Coach Calipari began to remove some starters from the game, first inserting Hood for Bledsoe, and then Orton for Cousins. The Cats lead remains at 37 points, 83-46 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:41 to play in the game.

In the third segment, it has become clear that UK simply wants to run out the string on this game and move on to Saturday's opponent, as ETSU trims 4 points off the lead to 33 points, 87-54 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, ETSU scores the next 6 points to cut the lead to 27 points, 87-60, and Coach Calipari calls a timeout with 6:52 to play. In the 4 th segment, the Cats continued to play out this final minutes of this game, protecting their lead at 26 points, 92-66 at the under 4 TV timeout.

The teams play the final segment as the Cats take the game by 29 points, 100-71.

Kentucky scored its 100 points in a total of 81 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.235 ppp. EAST TENNESSEE STATE scored its 71 points on a total of 81 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.877 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 44-40, but ETSU won the offensive glass 15-11. Kentucky converted their 11 second chances into 13 points while EAST TENNESSEE STATE converted its 15 second chances into 15 points.

EAST TENNESSEE STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.691 ppp on its 81 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 1.074 ppp on its 81 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a poor 30.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while EAST TENNESSEE STATE was able to convert 31.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot average from the line, making 23-34 [67.6%]. EAST TENNESSEE STATE made 21-37 [56.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-60 overall [51.7%] including 15-33 from long range [45.5%]. For EAST TENNESSEE STATE, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 4-17 [23.5%] and EAST TENNESSEE STATE shot the ball fair from inside the arc, hitting 19-47 [40.4%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers for the game which is 17.3% of possessions. The Cats forced 14 EAST TENNESSEE STATE turnovers, representing 17.3% of the EAST TENNESSEE STATE possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 15 point Kentucky win, 77-62 and the Cats won by 29 points, 100-71. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.09 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.24 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.87 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.88 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 71 possessions for the Cats and 71 for EAST TENNESSEE STATE, and the actual pace was 81 possessions for Kentucky and 81 possessions for EAST TENNESSEE STATE.

Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will next play Saturday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against the winner of tonight's second game between #8 Texas and #9 Wake Forest. This will be the fourth game of the 2010 post season, and the 36 th game overall for the Cats.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

38
Cats Defeat Win SEC Tournament on Miracle Finish in OT; 32-2; 17-2