07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

41
Cats In Sweet 16 For First Time Since 2005

It has been 5 long years since a Kentucky basketball team played its way into the NCAA Tournament's second weekend of play. The last time UK participated in the Sweet 16 was 2005 when the Cats handily defeated Utah by 10 points 62-52 before falling to Michigan State in the Elite 8 in 2 Overtimes. Last week, the Cats earned their ticket to the 2010 Regional in Syracuse, New York by virtue of two sound whippings of East Tennessee State by 29 and Wake Forest by 30 points.

Next up, the Big Red of Cornell, this year's Ivy League champions. The Cornell campus is located about a 1 hour's drive from the Syracuse Carrier Dome, which could provide Cornell a very friendly crowd for their meeting with the Region's #1 seed. Cornell advanced to the Sweet 16 by beating the #5 seed Temple by 13 points and #4 seed Wisconsin by 18 points in two impressive wins.

Thursday night about 10 pm, the Big Red will have their encounter against the Big Blue.

These teams have both posted successful seasons. Kentucky enters this game with a 34-2 record and Cornell comes to this game with a 29-4 record. The Kentucky team is as young as Cornell is seasoned. The Cats start 3 freshmen, and 5 of the Cats' top 8 performers are playing their first season of D1 basketball, and the Cats do not play a single senior in their usual 8 player game rotation. Cornell starts 4 seniors, and plays 8 seniors in a 10 player rotation that includes 1 sophomore and 1 junior. The Cats have evolved into one of the most effective defensive teams in the nation, especially with respect to the defense against the 3 point shot; Cornell makes over 43% of its 3 point shots, which is best in the nation this season. Kentucky plays at a pace that is faster than the NCAA D1 average, and Cornell plays at a pace that is slower than the average.

These teams are a study in contrasts. Can the Cats force the tempo of the game and make Cornell play at a faster pace than it feels comfortable? Can Cornell force the Cats to play 30 seconds on defense with each possession, and will that approach produce an uncharacteristically high frequency of turnovers and bad shots? Can the Cats control the rebounding?

I am sure that Coach Calipari's goal for this game will be the same as he stated for the first two NCAA games, just land the plane, refuel, and move on to the next landing spot.

Cornell comes to the Big Dance as the champion of the Ivy League with a 29-4 record overall, and 13-1 in the conference. Cornell's losses have come at the hands of Seton Hall by 10 points [#69], at Syracuse by 15 points [#4], at Kansas by 5 points [#2], and at Penn by 15 points [#296]. Cornell's most impressive wins occurred last week in this tournament over Temple by 13 points [#23] and Wisconsin by 18 points [#8]. Cornell has played and defeated two of the Cats' opponents this season, at Alabama by 4 points and at Drexel by 7 points. Since their loss to Penn on February 12, Cornell has won 9 consecutive games leading into this game with Kentucky. Cornell's overall level of competition has been much weaker than the Cats [RPI SOS .4817].

Through 33 games, CORNELL has averaged 75.8 ppg on 65.7 possessions per game, 1.154 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 63.4 ppg on 65.9 possessions, 0.962 ppp. CORNELL's turnover rate through those 33 games is 18.4% while their opponents have committed turnovers on 20.7% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, CORNELL has grabbed a NCAA D1 average 33.5% of their own misses and CORNELL has allowed their opponents to get only 19.2% of their missed shots.

Kentucky has averaged 80.1 ppg on 71.6 possessions per game, 1.120 points per possession, and they have allowed their opponents to score 65.3 ppg on 71.3 possessions, 0.915 ppp. UK's turnover rate through 36 games is 20.1% while their opponents have committed turnovers on only 19.6% of their collective possessions. On the Boards, the Cats have grabbed a very powerful, but declining 40.8% of their own misses and limited their opponents to only 32.4% of their missed shots.

Based on this data for CORNELL and the Cats for the 2009-10 season, the NGE analysis indicates a 8 point Kentucky win, 74-67, in a game to be played at a pace of about 69 possessions for Kentucky and 68 possessions for CORNELL. The predicted offensive efficiency is 1.072 ppp and the predicted defensive efficiency is 0.985 ppp.

Game Summary

Coach Calipari's starting lineup: Wall, Bledsoe, Miller, Cousins, and Patterson.

The Cats open ice cold, and commit 3 turnovers in their first 9 possessions while falling behind 10-2 in the opening 3 minutes. In contrast, Cornell opens by hitting 3 of their first 7 shots in building that lead. The Cats begin to battle back, and trim the Cornell lead to 4 points, 10-6 at the under 16 TV timeout with 13:26 to play in the first half. The Cats will have possession when play resumes. Out of the timeout, the Cats go inside to Orton for a basket, and then the Cats get their first lead on a 3 point play by Liggins following a Miller steal. Following another miss by Cornell, Patterson drains a 3 point shot to move the Cats up by 4 points, 14-10, at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:08 to play. The early pace of this game is under 70 possessions.

In the third segment, the Cats and Cornell both only managed 2 points, as the Cats maintained their lead at 4 points, 16-12 at the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats will have the ball when play resumes. In an extended 4 th segment, the cats outscored the Reds 9-4 and moved out to their largest lead of the game, 9 points, 25-16 with 2:54 to play in the first half, at which time Cornell called a timeout. In the final 3 minutes, the Cats put another 7 points onto their lead to double Cornell's score in the first half, 32-16.

The pace is about 62 possessions for the Cats and 60 possessions for CORNELL. Kentucky controlled the boards, 17-11 in total rebounds, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive rebounds 6-1. The Cats used their 6 second chances to score 3 second chance points while CORNELL used their 1 second chance to 2 second chance points.

In first half, UK had 31 possessions and CORNELL had 30. The Cats grabbed a fair 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CORNELL grabbed a pitiful 8.3% of their misses. CORNELL had an offensive efficiency of 0.467 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp for its 1 second chance possession. UK had 0.935 ppp on its 31 chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, 19.4% of their possessions, and CORNELL committed 12 turnovers, 40.0% of their possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made 2-6 attempts [33.3%] and CORNELL made 0-2 [0.0%] in the first half. The Cats shot the ball very well in the first half, hitting 14 of 28 attempts [50.0%] overall, but only 2-9 [22.2%] shooting from long range For CORNELL, their field goal shooting from beyond the arc was weak, 2-9 [22.2%], and CORNELL shot very well from inside the arc, 5-9 [55.6%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score it 57 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 25 points, while CORNELL needs 41 points. Kentucky scored its 57 th point on a free throws by Bledsoe with 1:00 to play in the game and the Cats leading 58-45 The teams played out the final 1:00 as the Cats won 62-45 to win their Sweet 16 NCAA game and advance to Saturday's Elite 8 game against #2 seed West Virginia. The Cats' record moves to 35-2; 17-2.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats opened the game with 3 quick turnovers, and only committed 3 more over the balance of the first half. They open the second half with turnovers on their four of their first 5 possessions of the second half, and only manage one basket on their only 3 shots as Cornell trimmed the 16 point halftime lead to 14 points, 34-20, at the under 16 TV timeout. Cornell will have possession when play resumes. In the second segment, the Cats briefly established their biggest lead of the night at 17 points, but Cornell used a 3 pointer, their third of the game, to trim the lead back to 14 points, 38-24, at the under 12 TV timeout and Cornell will have the ball when play resumes.

In the third segment, Cornell cut Kentucky's 16 point half time lead in half to just 8 points, 38-30 before Cousins made a basket to stop a 9-0 Cornell run just before the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats will have the ball when play resumes. In the fourth segment, Cornell trimmed the lead to just 6 points, 40-34, but the Cats responded with the next 6 points to take a 12 point lead, 46-34 at the under 4 TV timeout. In the final segment, the Cats finally extended their lead to a final margin, and game high 17 point margin, 62-45, to advance to the Elite 8 where they will play #2 seed West Virginia on Saturday.

Kentucky scored its 62 points in a total of 63 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.984 ppp. CORNELL scored its 45 points on a total of 63 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0..714 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 41-28, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 13-7 Kentucky converted their 13 second chances into 9 points while CORNELL converted its 7 second chances into 7 points.

CORNELL had an offensive efficiency of 0.603 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.841 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.692 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a respectable 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CORNELL was able to convert only 20.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the line, making 16-26 [61.5%]. CORNELL made 8-13 [61.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-50 overall [44.0%] including 2-16 from long range [12.5%]. For CORNELL, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was 5-21 [23.8%] and CORNELL shot the ball fair from inside the arc, hitting 11-27 [40.7%].

The Cats committed 13 turnovers for the game which is 20.6% of possessions. The Cats forced 15 CORNELL turnovers, representing 23.8% of the CORNELL possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 7 point Kentucky win, 74-67 and the Cats won by 17 points, 62-45. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.06 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.98 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0..99 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.71 ppp. The NGE forecast a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 68 for CORNELL, and the actual pace was 63 possessions for Kentucky and 63 possessions for CORNELL.

Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will next play Saturday in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament against West Virginia, the region's #2 seed. This will be the seventh game of the 2010 post season, and the 38 th game overall for the Cats.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

40
Cats Defeat Wake Forest by 30 To Advance; 34-2; 17-2