07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

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2009-2010 Post Mortem Analysis

This team showed us how the end would happen throughout the year.

• No focus or importance placed upon free throw shooting from the get go of a game

• An opponent who is in a zone from the arc.

• Inability to make the perimeter shot, thus eliminating any real inside threat.

• A team that never really understood the value of each possession and the real cost of high turnover rates.

• Defensive lapses that allow guards to penetrate to the hoop and either score or get fouled.

These were the ingredients that produced the end, and each of these tendencies and deficiencies surfaced throughout the season starting in November, and emerging from time to time ever since. Not a single one of them could prove fatal by itself, and since each was intermittent, coaches, players, and fans could excuse their significance away. However, in multiple combinations, which happened frequently through the season, it allowed weaker opponents to stay closer than most fans believed should have occurred, and in at least one occasion, a perplexing loss to South Carolina. In reality, those closer than expected games were a trademark of this team's character, not the insignificant exceptions to the rule.

FREE THROW SHOOTING:

Coach Calipari has said more than once that he does not concern himself with free throw shooting. However, he should because it sends the wrong message to the players that free throw shooting is not important. Free throw shooting provides the most efficient way for any team to score, and it is important to winning championships.

I have written about Coach Calipari's public statements about placing no emphasis on free throw shooting all season long. It is perplexing because it is counter to everything that I have ever heard from the great coaches of this game about the importance of free throw shooting. It is not even arguable that free throw shooting is the most efficient way to convert a possession into points, and for a coach to teach his players anything less than how important it is to convert those fouls into points is baffling at best, and inexcusable at worst.

OPPONENT THREE POINT SHOOTING:

Coach Calipari has said more than once that he expected the demise of this team to be a team shooting lights out from the perimeter, and he said this each time an opponent had a history of great perimeter shooting. However, that profile did not fit WVU, and that aspect caught him and the team completely by surprise. Therefore, all involved were unable to adjust or cope with WVU's first half 3 point shooting.

In all fairness, this team developed into a great 3 point defensive team and last night's 3 point shooting by WVU had more to do with WVU than the Cats.

KENTUCKY PERIMETER SHOOTING:

UK did nothing different in the second half, and WVU did begin to miss most of those perimeter shots. But by then the Cats' inability to shoot from the perimeter, 0-20 or whatever it ended being 0 for _________, had inflicted great harm. That poor shooting together with WVU's uncharacteristic three point shooting, and the Cats' pitiful lack of focus at the free throw line produced such a huge deficit, both in terms of points and in terms of emotion.

With respect to the perimeter shooting, when Meeks decided to leave last year, the question as to where UK would get consistent perimeter shooting threat was immediately valid. We saw flashes of that type of threat from Bledsoe, Dodson, and Miller, but none of these three guys were consistent enough to provide that offensive weapon reliably. This team deficiency was a source of valid concern before the season began, unlike the free throw shooting, lack of defensive intensity, and the valuing of possessions.

THE VALUE OF EACH POSSESSION:

This team valued possessions better than either of the Gillispie teams, which were the two worst UK turnover teams in UK history. This team did improve its turnover rate over the course of the season. Nevertheless, this team's turnover rate was considerably greater than the average UK turnover rate since turnover statistics have been published. This team did not even come close to the truly great UK teams of the past with respect to turnover rate. Clearly, next year's team should have as one of its performance goals to have a turnover rate better than UK's historic average.

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY AND LAPSES:

Finally, the defense was never where Calipari's teams have been in recent years at Memphis, and in my opinion, Calipari was more aware of this fact than anyone. He spoke about it frequently through the season. The team's defense did improve over the course of the entire season. However, the defensive efficiency of this team never really measured up to the way Calipari's teams have performed in recent years, particularly his last 2 Memphis teams I am convinced that Calipari agrees that next year's team must be more effective and consistent on the defensive end.

Net Game Efficiency [NGE] is the most reliable measure of team power and strength. It is the difference between the team's offensive and defensive efficiencies, adjusted for strength of schedule. All season long, this team's NGE was lower than that possessed by champions over the last several years. The difference was due to a higher than desired defensive efficiency.

SUMMARY:

Since this team kept winning those closer than expected games, the W-L record masked over the real character of this team. This team's NGE is consistent with an elite 8 team, but not a championship team. People argued that the lower than championship NGE was an anomaly that was unique to this team due to its youthfulness, and the steep learning curve this team had to climb in November and December before it could hit its stride. That was a powerful argument that kept many of the critics at bay, but now we know that it was not a valid argument.

This is the end of the first year of a rebuilding process for Coach Calipari. Next year's team needs to improve in all 4 of these areas I identified that are within their control.

• Free Throw Shooting: At least 70% for the season, and no games below 60%

• Three Point Shooting: At least 35% for the season, and no games below 20%

• Turnover Rate: No higher than 18% for the season, and no games above 22%

• Efficiency: A raw NGE of at least 0.25 points per possession for the season, with an offensive efficiency of at least 1.15 ppp and a defensive efficiency of no higher than 0.90 ppp.

These efficiency targets are the prescription for success in a final four year in and year out. The improvements that I identify here are relatively small when compared to this year's performance measures, achievable, and light years ahead of any similar measures we have seen from any UK team since Pitino left.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Fall In Elite 8; Season Ends 35-3; 17-2