07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

Mid-Season Comparisons
Kansas-Texas-Kentucky-Purdue

The 2009-10 college basketball season is about ½ over, and as I look at the landscape, I see four teams that have distinguished themselves; Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and Purdue. They currently rate at #1, #3, #10 and #6 by the Pomeroy system, and #4, #13, #15 and #3 in the flawed RPI system. Both of the major wire service polls have them ranked #1, #2, #3 and #4 this week. To be sure, there are other teams who could challenge these three for top honors come March including West Virginia, Duke, Villanova, and Syracuse.

However, the consensus today seems to focus on these three as a cut above the rest of the field. Therefore, I have taken a look at the first ½ of the regular season by each of these three teams, using 3 criteria:

Total Body of Work To Date
First 9 Games
Last 5 or 6 games [Kentucky has played 15, Kansas and Texas 14]

All three of these teams remain unbeaten at the midway point of the regular season. Texas and Kansas are preparing for their Big 12 wars from separate divisions, and Kentucky will open SEC play this coming weekend.

Full Season Comparisons [Total Bodies of Work]:

Primary Factors:

Offensive Efficiency: Ranking Order Kansas - Kentucky - Texas
Not a major difference from top to bottom

Kansas averages 86.3 ppg on 72.1 possessions/gm for an Off. Eff. of 1.197 pts/poss

Texas averages 87.0 ppg on 77.3 possessions/gm for an Off. Eff. of 1.125 pts/poss

Kentucky averages 82.8 ppg oon 71.8 possessions/gm for an Off. Eff. of 1.153 pts/poss.

Purdue averages 78.3 ppg on 71.0 possessions/gm for an offensive efficiency of 1.103 pts/poss.

Defensive Efficiency: Rankinig Order Texas - Kansas - Kentucky
A Major difference between top 2 and UK

Kansas holds opponents to 58.6 ppg on 71.7 possessions/gm for a Def. Eff. of 0.818 ppp

Texas holds opponents to 61.4 ppg on 76.9 possessions/gm for a Def. Eff. of 0.799 ppp

Kentucky holds opponents to 64.3 ppg on 70.9 possesions/gm for a Def. Eff. of 0.906 ppp.

Purdue holds opponents to 59.8 ppg on 70.3 possessions/gm for a defensive efficiency of 0.851 ppp

Schedule Strength: Ranking Order It is a mixed bag, primarily because strength of schedule is a difficult concept to quantify.

Kansas' 14 opponents have an average Pomeroy rating of #156 and an average RPI rating of #157. Pomeroy rates the Kansas schedule as #194. RPI rates Kansas' schedule as #54.

Texas' 14 opponents have an average Pomeroy rating of #141 and an average RPI rating of #145. Pomeroy rates the Texas schedule as #222. RPI rates Texas' schedule as #141

Kentucky's 15 opponents have an averge Pomeroy rating of #137 and an average RPI rating of #152. Pomeroy rates the Kentucky schedule as #201. RPI rates Kentucky's schedule as #146

Purdue's 14 opponents have an average Pomeroy rating of #152 and an average RPI rating of #138. Pomeroy rates the Purdue schedule as #141. RPI rates Kentucky's schedule as #47

Secondary Factors [Contributing Significantly to the Primary Factors]

Offensive Rebounding Rates: Ranking Order Kentucky - Texas - Kansas
Kentucky is clearly superior

Kansas has gotten 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds

Texas Texas has gotten 40.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds

Kentucky has grabbed 44.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds

Purdue has gotten 35.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds

Defensive Rebounding Rates: Ranking Order Kentucky-Texas-Kansas
No significant difference

Kansas has limited opponents to 31.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

Texas has limited opponents to 30.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds

Kentucky has limited opponents to 30.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

Purdue has limited opponents to 31.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

Turnover Rate: Ranking Order Kansas - Texas - Kentucky
A major concern for Kentucky early, but improving steadily

Kansas has committed a turnover on 17.2% of their possessions Kansas has forced opponent turnovers on 22.1% of their possessions.

Texas has committed a turnover on 18.9% of their possessions. Texas has forced opponent turnovers on 23.6% of their possessions.

Kentucky has committed a turnover on 21.5% of their possessions UK has forced opponent turnovers on 20.7% of their possessions.

Purdue has committed a turnover on 16.4% of their possessions Purdue has forced opponent turnovers on 26.2% of their possessions.

First Nine Games v Last 5 or 6 Games:

Based on the complete bodies of work by these three teams, it appears that the wire service poll ranking order, Kansas-Texas-Kentucky makes some sense. However, the more relevant question about level of play is whether these teams are playing as well today as they were for the first 9 games.

Kansas:

Off. Eff.:

Last 5: 79.0 ppg on 70.7 poss/gm 1.117 ppp
First 9: 90.3 ppg on 72.8 poss/gm 1.240 ppp
Conclusion: A Significant Slippage in Off. Eff.

Def. Eff.:

Last 5: 60.4 ppg on 72.1 poss/gm 0.838 ppp
First 9: 57.7 ppg on 71.5 poss/gm 0.807 ppp
Conclusion: A Slight Deterioration in Def. Eff.

Schedule Strength:

Last 5: Average Pomeroy rating 65; Average RPI rating 78
First 9: Average Pomeroy rating 183; Average RPI rating 182
Conclusion: A Significantly stronger schedule over the last
5 games than the first 9 games

Texas:

Off. Eff.:

Last 5: 89.8 ppg on 79.4 poss/gm 1.131 ppp
First 9: 85.4 ppg on 76.2 poss/gm 1.122 ppp
Conclusion: Not a significant Change

Def. Eff.:

Last 5: 75.4 ppg on 81.1 poss/gm 0.930 ppp
First 9: 53.7 ppg on 74.5 poss/gm 0.720 ppp
Conclusion: A major deterioration in Def. Eff.

Schedule Strength:

Last 5: Average Pomeroy Rating 142; Average RPI rating 168
First 9: Average Pomeroy Rating 164; Average RPI rating 152
Conclusion: Not a significant Change in Schedule Strength

Kentucky:

Off. Eff.:

Last 6: 88.2 ppg on 72.2 poss/gm 1.247 ppp
First 9: 79.2 ppg on 72.8 poss/gm 1.097 ppp
Conclusion: A Significant Improvement in Off. Eff.

Def. Eff.:

Last 6: 63.7 ppg on 70.0 poss/gm 0.910 ppp
First 9: 64.7 ppg on 71.1 poss/gm 0.909 ppp
Conclusion: No real change in Def. Eff.

Schedule Strength:

Last 6: Pomeroy Average rating 139; Average RPI rating 151
First 9: Pomeroy Average rating 136; Average RPI rating 152
Conclusion: Not a significant Change in Schedule Strength

Purdue:

Offensive Efficiency:

Last 5: 76.4 ppg on 66.3 poss/gm 1.152 ppp
First 9: 79.3 ppg on 73.6 poss/gm 1.079 ppp
Conclusion: A Slight Improvement in Offensive Efficiency

Defensive Efficiency:

Last 5: 58.0 ppg on 64.8 poss/gm 0.895 ppp
First 9: 60.8 ppg on 73.3 poss/gm 0.829 ppp
Conclusion: A Slight Deterioration in Defensive Efficiency

Schedule Strength:

Last 5: Pomeroy Average rating 155; Average RPI rating 147
First 9: Pomeroy Average rating 150; Average RPI rating 133
Conclusion: A very slight increase in Schedule Strength

Conclusions:

At mid-season, the data indicate that Kansas and Purdue have hit their stride, playing consistently from the beginning through their first 14 games. However, the data indicate that Texas' play has declined over the last 5 games, primarily at the defensive end of the court and that Kentucky's game has improved over the last 6 games, primarily at the offensive end of the court. All season, I have pointed out that the quality of Kentucky's defense has been lacking and needs to improve. It is still lacking and needs to improve for the Cats to make a legitimate run at a national championship this season.

Through the last 6 games, the very strong offensive rebounding rate established early in the season has been maintained, and Kentucky has improved its turnover rate over the last 6 games as well. Both of these factors are major contributing factors to the improved Off. Eff. The 1.24 ppp Off. Eff. of the last 6 games should place the UK offense as the most efficient in the country over that span of time, and this team needs to maintain that quality of offensive production through the SEC season. However, a Def. Eff. of 0.91 ppp is not even close to the best in the country. The following 8 teams currently have better defensive efficiencies than Kentucky.

Texas .815/2
Kansas .816/3
Duke .838/5
Missouri .849/8
Purdue .851/9
Wisconsin .854/10
Syracuse .870/15
Brigham Young .879/20

These teams are only 8 of the 30 teams nationwide that have current defensive efficiencies better than Kentucky. It is now time for this team to emerge as a more formidable defensive team as reflected by a Def. Eff. of 0.85 ppp or less over the last half of the season.

If Kentucky does improve its defense in this manner, and if Texas is not able to reverse its recent slide in the quality of its defense, then look for Kansas and Kentucky to compete for the National Championship on the first Monday of April 2010 in a true battle of basketball titans, the likes of which has not occurred for college basketball for many years.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Go Back

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

20
Cats Begin 2010 SEC Season Against Georgia