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2000-10 Season Analytical Writings
Where Does The 2009-10 UK Basketball Team Stand Through 9 Games?
Introduction: The season is now between 1/4 and 1/3 complete, and yes, the Cats are 9-0, and no one can take that away from this team. Few UK teams have ever started 9-0 or better, ever, and I went through that history in another thread. 1930 [go back that far only because it was Rupp's first year], 1954 [25-0 for season], 1966 [23-0], 1978 [15-0], 1984 [14-0], and 1993 [11-0]. That is 5 times better than 9-0 start in over 55 years. Look at the Spacing:
• 54 Rupp to 66 Rupp 12 years
• 66 Rupp to 78 Hall 12 years
• 78 Hall to 84 Hall 6 years
• 84 Hall to 93 Pitino 9 years
• 93 Pitino to 2010 Calipari 17 years
It has been a long time since UK has enjoyed this level of early season success.
However, the Big Blue Nation should not become overly light headed over this start because frankly the quality of play over the entire 9 games has not measured up to the quality of play displayed by the 93, 84, 78, 66, or 54 teams. This team could have lost 4 of these 9 games, and by all rights had lost at least 2 of those 4 but for the individual heroics of John Wall and Stanford's inability to put the game on ice for the Cardinal at the free throw line with only a few seconds remaining in regulation.
Yes, a win is a win is a win..... But, not all wins are created equal any more than all losses are created equal. For example, losing VMI at Rupp carries more significance than losing to Louisville by 1 point on a buzzer beater on the road. Both were losses in the 2008-09 season, but the significance of those two losses are radically different. Similarly, defeating Tennessee in Knoxville by 18 points carries more significance than beating Mississippi Valley State by 23 points at Rupp, while both were wins in the 2008-09 season.
Overview of First 9 Games: Of the 9 games the Cats have been favored to win 8 of them. The only game in which the Cats were the Dog going in was UConn, by a mere 1 point, and a 3 point win could have just as easily been a 5 point loss, given reliability of any such prediction, the flow of that game, and the conditions of the last 2 minutes of the game in which UConn held a small lead. The win over UNC is nice, especially given their recent dominance over the Cats in the annual series, but UNC is not playing great basketball this season either. However, the heroics required to beat Miami of Ohio and to extend Stanford into overtime should have been unnecessary.
The Cats' numbers through 9 games are good, but not great.
• Pace: 87 possessions per game
• Offensive efficiency: 0.908 points per possession
• Defensive efficiency: 0.766 points per possession
• Net Game Efficiency:0.142 points per possession
• Turnover Rate: 19.7% of all possessions
• Offensive Reb. Rate: 43.3% of all UK missed shots
• Defensive Reb. Rate: 67.1% of all Opp missed shots
Now, for some perspective or context:
Pace: This is the fastest pace for UK since 2002 and 2001 when Tubby's teams averaged 87.8 and 86.9 possessions for the entire seasons. However, as this team enters SEC play, the average pace of play will decline. Last year's team was also averaging about 87 possessions per game through 9 games too, and ended the season at slightly over 81 possessions. Pitino's teams over 8 seasons averaged 93.3 possessions per game, and Joe B. Hall's teams averaged 95 possessions per game between 1973 and 1979. So, the pace appears better today, but the season is still too young to know whether the fast pace that Calipari talks about so often is going to stick for an entire season.
Offensive Efficiency: At 0.908 ppp, this efficiency is lower than last year's team for the entire season, and well below last year's team's efficiency through the first 20 games of last season, prior to the collapse of the team and coach. Furthermore, at 0.908 ppp, it is less than or equal to all recent UK teams extending back to 1990 except 1991, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2006, and 2008. That is 20 years of data, and this offense is ranked 13 th of 20. Pitino's teams averaged 0.934 ppp over the entire 8 years, and Tubby's 10 teams averaged about the same as this year's team's offensive efficiency through 9 games.
Scoring is the product of pace and offensive efficiency. Many observers have noted that NCAA champions over the last many decades have been able to put the ball in the basket at a rate of 78 points per game or higher. I agree with this observation. The combination of a pace of 87 possessions, that is likely to fall between now and March, and an offensive efficiency of 0.91 ppp, assuming it remains stable through March, will not generate the 78 ppg average scoring that champions have been known to display. Therefore, either the pace must remain at 87 possessions per game or higher, or the offensive efficiency must rise to counter balance a declining pace for this UK team to maintain its current scoring average of about 79 ppg.
Defensive Efficiency: At 0.766 points per possession, this is the most efficient defensive effort we have seen since Pitino's last year [0.715 ppp], but it is higher than any of Pitino's last 3 teams. Never the less, the defensive effort has been overall very efficient through 9 games, and represents one of this team's strongest performance attributes.
Championship contenders not only are able to score points, but they are able to prevent opponents from scoring. It is not enough to average 78 ppg. Champions limit opponents' scoring as well.
Net Game Efficiency [NGE]: NGE is nothing but the arithmetic difference between offensive and defensive efficiencies. It is average margin of victory or loss that has been normalized to remove pace as a variable. This year's 0.142 ppp is good. However, true contenders for final fours will have NGE values above 0.160 ppp, and champions since the early 90s when I began tracking NGE levels have season ending NGE values of 0.180 ppp or higher. There is a distinct relationship between NGE and winning percentage as well.
Now some perspective, the NGE through 9 games is better than any UK team's season long NGE since 2003 when it was 0.145 ppp. The 1996 and 1997 Pitino teams posted NGE values of 0.203 and 0.201 respectively. 1995 was 0.173 ppp and 1993 was 0.165 ppp. The NGE is the single most reliable indicator of team success in the post season that I have found, and at 0.142 ppp, this team will not be a legitimate final four contender. The NGE must increase to above 0.160 ppp by the end of March to achieve that level of status going into the tournament, and to at least 0.180 ppp to become a true national contender for a championship.
Turnover Rate: Since 1972, UK teams have turned the ball over on 17.2% of its possessions. Tubby's 10 teams averaged 17.3% while Pitino's 8 teams averaged 16.3%. The last 2 teams set back to back dubious UK turnover records, at 20.6% in 2008 and then 20.7% in 2009. The current team has turned the ball over 19.5% of its possessions, and the trend is currently downward. That is a good trend, and one that this team needs to continue to be a true championship form. At 19.5%, only the last two Gillispie teams turned the ball over at a faster pace for an entire season.
Offensive and Defensive Rebounding Rates: The NCAA averages over recent years has been that the shooting team gets on offensive rebound on about 1/3 of its own misses. This team has been much better on its offensive glass and slightly better on its defensive glass. I do not have historical data to put these rebounding performances into a broader context, but rebounding at both ends has been stronger so far this season than any of the last 3 seasons when I began to track rebounding rates in this manner. One warning is appropriate. As noted above, the current trend for Turnover Rate is good because it is declining. However, the current trend on Rebounding Rates is not good because both the offensive and defensive rates have been falling.
Summary: So what is the bottom line through 9 games? The team's overall performance has been good. It has been better in many respects than anything the Big Blue Nation has seen in well over 10 years. However, it has not been at a level that NCAA national champions and NCAA final four teams have consistently displayed for many years.
Winning games is the ultimate bottom line measuring stick. This team has done that, and nothing but that. For its determination and ability to find ways to win at crunch time, this team deserved praise and recognition. However, as this team moves closer to the SEC season, which will provide 16 legitimate tests by fire, this team must perform at a higher level than it has to date to traverse those deep south waters and emerge as conference champion in March.
Expectations are what they are, and are what they have been.
• SEC Championships
• Legitimate player on the National Stage for Final Four positions
This team is not there yet.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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