07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2000-10 Season Analytical Writings

A CHRISTMAS PEEK AT THE SEC SEASON

Christmas has come and the Cats only have two non-conference games remaining, Hartford and Louisville, both at Rupp, before the annual SEC wars begin. At this stage of the season, the identity of most teams has been defined sufficiently to look ahead to the SEC season. Through the non-conference portion of the schedule, four SEC teams have emerged as early favorites to contend for the SEC East, West and overall regular season championships in 2010. In the East, Kentucky and Tennessee have emerged, while in the West, Mississippi State and Mississippi have emerged.

A middle third tier of four teams has also emerged; Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in the East, and Alabama from the West. From this central group, one or two of them could emerge from the middle to challenge for a spot in the upper tier and earn at large bids to the NCAA Tournament come March. Georgia in the East and LSU, Auburn and Arkansas in the West bring up the bottom of the SEC in 2010.

Overall, the East is stronger than the West, top to bottom, and the East will win more of the 36 East-West cross fire games than the West, probably by a margin of about 21-15. However, the scheduling for the 2010 season provides Mississippi State a clear leg up over Kentucky and Tennessee, the dynamic duo of East leaders because Mississippi State will play both of them in Starkville while Ole Miss must travel to Lexington and Knoxville this season. Because of this, the SEC regular season championship will probably hinge on the outcomes of two games, UK @ Mississippi State on February 16 and Tennessee @ Mississippi State on March 6. If Mississippi State wins them both, they will be probably be the SEC regular season Champions, but if they stumble in either game, the winner will leap ahead of the Bulldogs into the SEC overall lead, winning out on a tie breaker. If Mississippi State should lose them both, then the entire drama shifts to the UK-UT action against the rest of the SEC East field seeking the first effective tie breaker.

This does not mean that Mississippi State, Tennessee and Kentucky do not face other legitimate obstacles in their path for 2010, because each of them does. Mississippi State must play Ole Miss twice, and travel to Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. Kentucky and Tennessee must also also face each other twice as well as travel to Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. In addition, Tennessee must travel to Alabama. Each of the leaders will be vulnerable and susceptible to upset losses in these road games against that middle tier of teams. All such upsets, such as they do occur, will impact the overall SEC race.

Since my interest primarily lies with UK, the following games are emerging as the crucial match ups of primary importance to the SEC race:

UK v Mississippi, Feb 2
UK v Tennessee, Feb 13
UK @ Mississippi State, Feb 16
UK @ Tennessee, Feb 27

Games of secondary importance include:

UK @ Florida, Jan 12
UK @ South Carolina, Jan 26
UK @ Vanderbilt, Feb 20

The remaining 9 SEC games should simply be a matter of taking care of business, whether at Rupp or on the road. So, January's 6 games will provide 2 key match ups, and February's 8 games will provide 5 key match ups. By the time March arrives, the fate of the 2009-10 Cats within the SEC will be sealed.

The following tables contain the current SEC Team Ranking, and Projected SEC Standings based on NGE analysis and an average of projected final records and rankings by NGE, Pomeroy, and GAMER. Both tables will automatically update throughout the SEC season, at at Season's End, the Tables will indicate final actual results.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

17
Cats Defeats Long Beach State, Moves to 13-0